PGA Nominations

[flipp525]

Not sure about Carol (I loved it, but everyone I've talked to about it has had negative things to say "Blanchett is too old!". . .

What? Blanchett is certainly not too old to play the "older woman."

Well, I didn't say it! It might be worth mentioning though that in the novel, Carol is in her very early 30s while Therese is supposed to be 23 or so. Blanchett is 46 and Mara is 30.

[The Original BJ]

Should that be the case with PGA voting, it makes a lot of sense. (That's another reason why I'm not strongly doubting Carol's Best Picture chances -- it's absolutely the kind of movie that will be getting number one votes.)

But I also think the different makeup of the Academy is a big factor as well, and in this case, it's worth noting that the discrepancy between AMPAS and PGA is significant in a way that isn't the case for the other guilds. Directors (and their support staff) make up the DGA, and directors make up the Academy's directing branch. Writers make up the WGA, and writers make up the Academy's writing branch. There's some overlap in terms of membership, but the same kinds of voters make up both groups.

However, the PGA is made up of producers, whereas the entirety of the Academy votes for Best Picture. I don't have a great reason for why producers would have passed on certain movies this year and selected others, but a far wider cross section of the industry will be selecting Oscar's Best Picture nominees, and that's at least worth pointing out.

[Mister Tee]

Can someone who knows the rules of PGA voting confirm what I read somewhere else? The contention was that, though PGA's final vote is conducted the same way as AMPAS' -- eliminating the lowest total round by round, and working down the ballots till one film gets above 50% of the votes -- they make their initial choice of ten not by prizing first place votes but by allowing all members to nominate five (unranked) films, with each mention counting the same, and the ten highest totals making the cut.

I ask because if that's the case, it might account for a more broadly tolerated film, like Bridge of Spies or (in the past) Skyfall, piling up enough votes to make the PGA ballot, whereas the AMPAS method would more favor a film passionately supported by a minority -- The Tree of Life and (potentially) Room or Carol.

There's also, of course, the different composition of the electorate making the choices, but I wonder if the system itself affects the outcome.

[Okri]

If Carol doesn't make it in, I'm going to be very disappointed.

I'm starting to wonder if Room is going to make the cut. There's clearly a division of enthusiasm. It has Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and AFI nominations but for whatever reason Film Independent passed it up. Is there an anti-A24 movement afoot? Can Brie Larson win if Room isn't nominated?

I think the reason why it seems like there are so many films in the running for Best Picture is because there are so few that seem honestly locked in. The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, and Spotlight seem like sure things. Beasts of No Nation, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Room, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Straight Outta Compton, and Trumbo are all in the running. That's sixteen films all told.

a) Ditto

b) You know, after seeing Room, I thought it would be just an acting + writing nominee and was surprised that people viewed it's chances so strongly. That said, I don't think it needed the PGA - it's such a small film and was more likely going to appeal to AMPAS over this group anyway. That said, do people realize just how small it's box office take is? Still 5 million, and it's losing theatres. It's on course to be the lowest grossing best picture nominee since Winter's Bone (which was the lowest grossing nominee in nearly 30 years, unadjusted!!). Also, Ex Machina is overperforming it seems and it's also A24. For comparison, Carol has already out-grossed it.

c) Oh, I'm not sure I think those last four are in the race, but the only film I would call a lock is Spotlight. I would not be surprised if something like The Revenant still missed out (though the GoNY reference makes sense). And Mad Max strikes me as a film that AMPAS will like less than everyone.

d) re: Straight Outta Compton... BJ, I'd be surprised if that was true. More that it was a popular hit with a degree of critical acclaim.

e) I'm loving how crazy director seems.

[Mister Tee]

People at other sites are noting that there's usually substantial overlap between PGA and ACE nominees -- routinely 7-9 -- but this year it's only 5. Which may lend credence to the idea it's an unusually scattered year, or it could be just the comedy category was lighter than usual.

[Sabin]

If Carol doesn't make it in, I'm going to be very disappointed.

I'm starting to wonder if Room is going to make the cut. There's clearly a division of enthusiasm. It has Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and AFI nominations but for whatever reason Film Independent passed it up. Is there an anti-A24 movement afoot? Can Brie Larson win if Room isn't nominated?

I think the reason why it seems like there are so many films in the running for Best Picture is because there are so few that seem honestly locked in. The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, and Spotlight seem like sure things. Beasts of No Nation, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Room, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Straight Outta Compton, and Trumbo are all in the running. That's sixteen films all told.

[Greg]

Not sure about Carol (I loved it, but everyone I've talked to about it has had negative things to say "Blanchett is too old!". . .

What? Blanchett is certainly not too old to play the "older woman."

[FilmFan720]

PGA has a separate category for animation, where Inside Out appeared and will almost surely win. I'm not sure if PGA rules allow for nominations in the main category as well.

Toy Story 3 got double nominations for Picture and Animated Feature

[Mister Tee]

Given that my three favorite movies of the year are Carol, Steve Jobs, and Room -- all of which had seemed pretty solidly in the Oscar conversation -- this list was a grisly sight to see.

Have we all been duped into thinking Carol is a top Picture/Director candidate? Or is it just going to have a giant collapse with the Guilds? All season long, I'd been pleased that my initial assumption -- that some people might find it too cold -- was being proven wrong, but now I'm suddenly worried that it's going to be Far From Heaven Redux all over again. (It also missed the Art Directors Guild list this morning.)

Can this put the nail in the coffin of any discussion of Star Wars as a legitimate Best Picture candidate? You have to figure that this group above all would have been most predisposed to voting for it.

I hadn't really been doubting Inside Out's potential, but it's another big hit you'd have imagined the producers would have selected.

The attention for Straight Outta Compton seems to have arisen from the egg so many organizations had on their faces for overlooking Selma last year. But I'm not that excited about a mediocre black-themed movie winning attention to make amends for the snubbing of a far better black-themed movie last year.

Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, and Sicario -- all of which had struggled big time with precursors so far -- almost needed this citation to stay in the race.

Ex Machina is the one really from-nowhere candidate. I find it very hard to imagine this as a Best Picture nominee with the Academy, but perhaps this suggests it has enough support to get that Original Screenplay spot some of us suggested it might grab when we saw it. (And maybe Vikander getting her nomination for this isn't such a wild idea after all.)

PGA has a separate category for animation, where Inside Out appeared and will almost surely win. I'm not sure if PGA rules allow for nominations in the main category as well.

The three films you cite are pretty much my favorites on the year, as well -- though I'd include The Big Short alongside them, so this wasn't quite as big a wipeout for me.

Ex Machina does now seem a good bet to slide into the weakish original screenplay category. And it'd be great if Vikander got nominated for that and spare us a Danish Girl citation. (Unfortunately, all those who love Danish Girl would probably vote for her on the final ballot with that film in mind, a la Lange Frances/Tootsie).

[flipp525]

Given that my three favorite movies of the year are Carol, Steve Jobs, and Room -- all of which had seemed pretty solidly in the Oscar conversation -- this list was a grisly sight to see.

Have we all been duped into thinking Carol is a top Picture/Director candidate? Or is it just going to have a giant collapse with the Guilds? All season long, I'd been pleased that my initial assumption -- that some people might find it too cold -- was being proven wrong, but now I'm suddenly worried that it's going to be Far From Heaven Redux all over again. (It also missed the Art Directors Guild list this morning.)

Not sure about Carol (I loved it, but everyone I've talked to about it has had negative things to say "Blanchett is too old!" "It's boring!" "It's too long!" etc.), but I can't find a single person who wasn't just ecstatic about Room. In fact, I think that Joan Allen might very well end up being a surprise nominee for it and could actually win.

Isn't Alicia Vikander Harvey's new "girl"? I'd really rather see a veteran like Allen, someone with several nominations and a history of strong supporting work in various films, take home the Oscar than Vikander for The Danish Girl (total category fraud) or Ex-Machina (couldn't the PGA nomination be seen as a sign that her citation comes from this film instead?)

[FilmFan720]

Since the expansion, only 1 film has gotten SAG Ensemble and PGA nods and not gotten a Best Picture nod (Bridesmaids). I was pushing a couple months ago that Straight Outta Compton would get a BP nod, and people talked me out of it...next time, I'm sticking to my guns!

[CalWilliam]

My God, where is Carol?

I don't give a damn about this year anymore. Mad Max everywhere and category fraud are the moving forces. I hope the Academy will resolve in some way this intellectual backwardness the guilds and the critics are showing off. Only the New York Film Critics Circle made sense.

I lost all hope, but has ever any film won Best Picture Oscar without appearing on PGA list?

[The Original BJ]

Given that my three favorite movies of the year are Carol, Steve Jobs, and Room -- all of which had seemed pretty solidly in the Oscar conversation -- this list was a grisly sight to see.

Have we all been duped into thinking Carol is a top Picture/Director candidate? Or is it just going to have a giant collapse with the Guilds? All season long, I'd been pleased that my initial assumption -- that some people might find it too cold -- was being proven wrong, but now I'm suddenly worried that it's going to be Far From Heaven Redux all over again. (It also missed the Art Directors Guild list this morning.)

Can this put the nail in the coffin of any discussion of Star Wars as a legitimate Best Picture candidate? You have to figure that this group above all would have been most predisposed to voting for it.

I hadn't really been doubting Inside Out's potential, but it's another big hit you'd have imagined the producers would have selected.

The attention for Straight Outta Compton seems to have arisen from the egg so many organizations had on their faces for overlooking Selma last year. But I'm not that excited about a mediocre black-themed movie winning attention to make amends for the snubbing of a far better black-themed movie last year.

Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, and Sicario -- all of which had struggled big time with precursors so far -- almost needed this citation to stay in the race.

Ex Machina is the one really from-nowhere candidate. I find it very hard to imagine this as a Best Picture nominee with the Academy, but perhaps this suggests it has enough support to get that Original Screenplay spot some of us suggested it might grab when we saw it. (And maybe Vikander getting her nomination for this isn't such a wild idea after all.)

[Mister Tee]

It's hard not to immediately notice what a Guy list it is. Brooklyn the only female-oriented film to make the cut (Sicario & Mad Max of course have leading female roles, but they're badass chicks in action movies, far more a male enthusiasm). To leave out one of the most highly praised movies of the year in Carol, as well as Room, in favor of Compton seems to indicate the Guild is really testosterone-filled. I've tried not to jump to blaming sexism for choices, but, damn, they're making it hard.

Only three carryovers from SAG ensemble reinforces the idea that was a somewhat fluky list. The best news here is that the absurd run for Trumbo was interrupted.

Star Wars would have been a typical choice in many years, but the limited lane for action blockbusters was already crowded with Max, The Martian and to some extent Sicario.

And Bridge of Spies could well follow the War Horse trajectory, getting Spielberg a nomination he doesn't need over something more deserving.

[FilmFan720]

“The Big Short”
Producers: Brad Pitt & Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner

“Bridge of Spies”
Producers: Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt, Kristie Macosko Krieger

“Brooklyn”
Producers: Finola Dwyer & Amanda Posey

“Ex Machina”
This film is in the process of being vetted for producer eligibility

“Mad Max: Fury Road”
Producers: Doug Mitchell & George Miller

“The Martian”
Producers: Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer, Mark Huffam

“The Revenant”
Producers: Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon

“Sicario”
Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Edward L. McDonnell, Molly Smith

“Spotlight”
Producers: Michael Sugar & Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin, Blye Pagon Faust

“Straight Outta Compton”
Producers: Ice Cube & Matt Alvarez, F. Gary Gray, Dr. Dre, Scott Bernstein