Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

FYI: The winners are The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road and Amy in their respective categories.

The Big Short is also the only film so far to pick up the top nomination from SAG, HFPA, AFI and ACE!

It's certainly in the running. Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actor are each only three or four contenders strong. The Big Short is a pretty sure thing for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Film Editing. If it has a good morning, then Adam McKay, Steve Carell, and Christian Bale are in and it could easily end up getting more nominations than Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, Room, Spotlight, and Star Wars. That helps its standing a lot.

Adam McKay is the toughest one to get but who does he have to beat out? Ridley Scott and Todd Haynes look like the sure things. After that, George Miller is a gentleman director of a certain age and even if the anti-genre bias keeps it out of Best Picture, he probably has a good shot here. Tom McCarthy looks good too but save for the National Society of Film Critics does anybody think it's more than a competently directed film? It would have to be the most muted nominated directing since what? Frost/Nixon? The Queen? Maybe missing out on a nomination will end up helping the film.

Alejandro G. Innaritu is McKay's competition. Ironically, the only major question marks left for The Revenant are in the branches Innaritu won this past year: producing, directing, and writing. We'll see how much they really like The Revenant shortly. I'm not holding my breath for the phrase "DGA nominee Adam McKay". The Revenant already strikes me as a lumbering thing like Gangs of New York or Master and Commander that just has a little too much momentum built up to stop short of nominations at this point.

I've said more than once i think people are underestimating The Big Short. The tough get for it will be the directing nomination, given the clannishness of the branch. But if it can manage that, I can imagine film/actor/supporting actor/director/screenplay/editing, which is plenty to contend. And it might have an advantage coming from a big studio; maybe Open Road is more a handicap for Spotlight than was imagined.

FilmFan720 wrote:Anyone else feel like The Big Short could be lurking stronger in the shadows than we imagine? Everyone I hear from who has seen has seems to have really liked it, and the film is quietly doing solid business at the box office. Throw in the ACE nod today, to go with overachieving at SAG and HFPA.

Right now, Picture and Screenplay seem assured and I would imagine Christian Bale also picks up a nomination. Is director really out of reach, in a category with not a lot of certainty?

Yeah, a couple of us said this about a month ago. I definitely think it's a possibility. The movie also has a certain topicality that Spotlightdoesn't (if Spotlight had come out maybe five years ago, it might be a different story).

Steve Carell for Best Actor and Christian Bale for Best Supporting Actor in place of the not-so-strong placeholders for Keaton and Ruffalo.

I think that Spotlight was a decent film with a couple good performances, but it really could've been so much better.

I'm starting to think that, if a legitimate threat to Spotlight's Best Picture crown emerges, it very well might be The Big Short.

Anyone else feel like The Big Short could be lurking stronger in the shadows than we imagine? Everyone I hear from who has seen has seems to have really liked it, and the film is quietly doing solid business at the box office. Throw in the ACE nod today, to go with overachieving at SAG and HFPA.

Right now, Picture and Screenplay seem assured and I would imagine Christian Bale also picks up a nomination. Is director really out of reach, in a category with not a lot of certainty?

If the bet pre-yesterday had been "Spotlight: NSFC winner or ACE noninee", we'd have all lost a bundle.

Of lesser import but still notable: Bridge of Spies also omitted -- Michael Kahn even got cited here for War Horse.

Plus such other best picture hopefuls as Carol or Brooklyn, but they might be explained away as not editing-flashy in a year when several maybe-not-best picture-level films are -- Star Wars, Mad Max (I'm still not fully sold), Sicario. (Though maybe we're underestimating that last one in best picture terms.)

Statistical fact: Last Best Picture winner to miss an Eddie Nomination was Driving Miss Daisy

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic):

Mad Max: Fury Road
Margaret Sixel

The Martian
Pietro Scalia, ACE

The Revenant
Stephen Mirrione, ACE

Sicario
Joe Walker, ACE

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Maryann Brandon, ACE and Mary Jo Markey, ACE

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy):

Ant-Man
Dan Lebental, ACE and Colby Parker, Jr., ACE

The Big Short
Hank Corwin, ACE

Joy
Jay Cassidy, ACE, Alan Baumgarten, ACE, 
Christopher Tellefsen, ACE and Tom Cross, ACE

Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
David Trachtenberg

Trainwreck
William Kerr, ACE and Paul Zucker

Best Edited Animated Feature Film:

Anomalisa
Garret Elkins

Inside Out
Kevin Nolting, ACE

The Good Dinosaur
Stephen Schaffer, ACE


Best Edited Documentary (Feature):

Amy
Chris King

Cobain: Montage of Heck
Joe Beshenkovsky and Brett Morgen

Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
Andy Grieve

He Named Me Malala
Greg Finton, ACE, Brian Johnson and Brad Fuller

The Wrecking Crew
Claire Scanlon