AFI Top Ten

[Okri]

I will agree that The Social Network dominated the consensus like nobody's business but I echo Tee here in that it was largely seen as a strong year (I didn't agree, fwiw).

[Big Magilla]

My recollection of 2010 is that with the exception of The Social Network, there wasn't a real consensus film. I liked The King's Speech and The Fighter well enough to place them fourth and fifth on my ten best list behind Never Let Me Go and Let Me In and ahead of The Kids Are Alright and Nowhere Boy at six and seven, but everything else was OK at best. Toy Story 3 is a film I use to entertain my toddling grand-nieces.

[Mister Tee]

Toy Story 3 was nominated in a fairly dismal year. That's not the case this year. I really don't see Inside Out making it.

Sorry, must object to that categorization. 2010 was overflowing with well-reviewed films that had (by modern Hollywood serious-movie standards) exceptional grosses: The King's Speech, The Social Network, The Fighter, Black Swan, Inception, True Grit, in addition to Toy Story 3. You may not like these films -- individual taste is always subjective -- but in objective terms this was close to a bumper crop, nearly as strong as 2012 or 2013.

Inside Out's problem (if it has one -- I still think it'll make it) is that, this year, there are few movies truly beloved, but a deep list of movies greatly be-liked. Spotlight, Carol, The Big Short, Mad Max, Room, The Martian, The Revenant, Creed, Brooklyn, Straight Outta Compton, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight -- all have elements that in many years could lead to a best picture slot. Inside Out is certainly in that group -- probably, in critical/commercial terms, in the top half -- but with so many candidates, getting that crucial 5% number one placement will be tricky for many.

[Big Magilla]

I forgot about Up and Toy Story 3.

Up was on my ten best list, as was WALL-E. Toy Story 3 was nominated in a fairly dismal year. That's not the case this year. I really don't see Inside Out making it.

[OscarGuy]

While The Dark Knight is often cited as the catalyst for the shift to ten best pictures nominees, WALL-E was also expected to break into the Best Picture race that year and failed. The combination of two popular, critically acclaimed films failing to make the list was part of the reason for the expansion.

Yes, Beauty and the Beast was the only film before the Animated Fetaure category to score a Best Picture nomination and until there were ten nominees, there were no animated features nominated, but since then, both Up and Toy Story 3 earned Best Picture nominations.

Toy Story 3 is the last highly praised Pixar film released prior to Inside Out. Everything since has disappointed both in terms of box office and critical reception. Inside Out is considered a return to form for Pixar, meaning it has a very solid chance of breaking through.

[flipp525]

AMPAS has not nominated an animated feature for Best Picture since the genre had its own category, and only once before that. I don't see Inside Out making Oscar history in that regard.

That's not true. Up was nominated in 2009, making it the first animated film since Beauty and the Beast (1991) to receive a Best Picture nomination. The year before Waltz with Bashir became the first animated feature to receive a Best Foreign Language Film nod (although it failed to receive a nomination for Best Animated Feature that year).

[Big Magilla]

AMPAS has not nominated an animated feature for Best Picture since the genre had its own category, and only once before that. I don't see Inside Out making Oscar history in that regard.

I think The Martian, the only one of the three other blockbusters to offer anything substantially new is in. I think one of the two reboots will make it in, but not both. I see Star Wars getting a slew of below the line nominations, but in one of those odd quirks known only to Oscar voters, I see Mad Max getting only two nominations - Best Visual Effects and Best Picture and losing both. That's probably more wishful thinking than anything else, but it would make my Oscar day.

According to Bill Poland at MCN, Warner Bros. has been slow in grinding up the publicity machine for Creed and Oscar voters are reluctant to watch their screener, which doesn't bode well for the Rocky franchise's Oscar chances. One down, two to go?

[The Original BJ]

Now that I've seen it, I have a difficult time imagining Star Wars as a Best Picture nominee. (Of course, keep in mind that up until a week or so ago, I had a very difficult time imagining Mad Max as a Best Picture nominee, and I've mostly come around on that as a possibility.) But the element that has made Mad Max such a critical cause celebre -- the amazing technical craft -- is something that genuinely feels fresh. Despite my own opinion on the movie, even I can acknowledge that it's operating on a far more spectacular level of filmmaking than the earlier Mad Max installments.

The Force Awakens, while far better than those ghastly prequels, is mostly a throwback to the original trilogy in terms of filmmaking style, tone, and even the nuts and bolts of the narrative. (Plot-wise, it almost amounts to a remake of the 1977 film.) For me, it's not dissimilar to what J.J. Abrams accomplished with his Star Trek movies, taking a well-worn franchise and updating it for contemporary audiences while also flattering diehard fans. But just as Star Trek was simply considered too lightweight for a Best Picture nomination, so too will Star Wars, I think.

Also, with all of the commercial entries being talked about for Oscar -- Mad Max, The Martian, Inside Out, Star Wars -- it would seem way too blockbuster-y a lineup for ALL of them to make it in.

[Okri]

Eh, Straight Out of Compton is too black.

[OscarGuy]

Kris Tapley at Variety urges caution on declaring Star Wars a Best Picture contender.

The big omission is The Revenant.

[flipp525]

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton

I'm starting to hear rumbling that this could actually fill the "blockbuster"/genre pick nominee slot instead of Mad Max: Fury Road, just to throw that out there.

[FilmFan720]

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Room
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton