SAG Nomination Predictions

[criddic3]

Trumbo is playing locally here and I plan to see it soon. The reviews for Mirren were good, and Hedda Hopper seems like the kind of "actorly" role the Screen Actors Guild would be interested in honoring. Of course, she's good in just about every role she does, and she's the type of actress that other actors seem to love. So put that all together and it just made sense to me.

[flipp525]

Best Supporting Female

Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Helen Mirren – Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

criddic, you were 4/5 here which is, I believe the best out of everyone who posted their predictions. What made you choose Mirren for Trumbo?

[Sabin]

I can't believe my best category was Stunt Ensemble.

[criddic3]

Best Ensemble

Bridge of Spies
Carol
Creed
The Hateful Eight
Spotlight

Best Lead Male

Matt Damon, The Martian
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellan, Mr. Holmes
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Lead Female

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Blythe Danner, I'll See You in My Dreams
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saiorse Ronan, Brooklyn

Best Supporting Male

Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Jacob Tremblay, Room

Best Supporting Female

Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Helen Mirren – Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Stunt Ensemble

Everest
Furious 7
Mad Max: Fury Road
Point Break
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

[Sabin]

Best Ensemble
The Big Short
Black Mass
Carol
The Martian
Spotlight

Best Lead Male
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Lead Female
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saiorse Ronan, Brooklyn
Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Best Supporting Male
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Best Supporting Female
Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
Jane Fonda, Youth
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Stunt Ensemble
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Furious 7
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Mission: Impossible -- Rogue Nation

[Big Magilla]

Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Rooney Mara, Carol
Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Ensemble Cast:
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Spotlight

[ITALIANO]

Can someone really win an Oscar just because bloggers spent the better part of the year expecting him to?

Yes, this is THE question - which I find interesting not only for the Oscars, but more in general for the world of media and communication today. The influence of internet is, I think, a fascinating subject - especially, I guess, for those of my generation who were here even before internet itself. To us, it seems just crazy. And I'm glad that it seems just crazy.

It's also true, of course, that this seems to be the rare Best Actor race without any real front-runner (at least for the moment). I haven't seen most of the "big" contenders yet, but while I know for sure that there is a number of impressive Best Actress turns (so many, by the way, that putting some in THAT other category will be also be a way, an unfair way, of honoring all of them), when it comes to Best Actor it all seems so vague, so weak. And this could make Di Caprio's win - for a performance which may not be one of his best - even easier.

[Big Magilla]

On another matter: is anyone aware of a spot the Globe nominations will be televised? Since the show is (I believe) on NBC, I'd expect the Today Show to carry them Thursday morning, but the TV listings don't mention it (where they have in the past).

It's supposed to be broadcast on-line live at http://www.goldenglobes.com/ at 8 A.M. EST. If on TV, I'd expect it to be carried on E! The Today Show usually carries these things doesn't usually pick them up until 830-8;35.

[Mister Tee]

As BJ says, Ensemble is always tricky to predict because it sort-of means SAG's Best Picture, but sometimes means best/biggest cast. Some films you might want to consider, like Room or Carol, could fall short on the second criterion (all kudos to Chandler, Paulson and the rest of the cast, but I can see voters viewing Carol as largely a two-hander). And some films with big, bountiful casts might do better despite not being top-tier efforts -- The Big Short, with its glittery names, strikes me as a solid possibility, and Joy may slip through, helped by the fact the more blistering reviews didn't turn up till the very end of the voting period. I'm with most people in thinking Spotlight and Brooklyn are the most logical picks, and I guess The Martian follows on many folks' lists -- though anyone fixating on the Matt Damon part of the film might find that odd as an ensemble pick. I mentioned Steve Jobs as slam-dunk the day I saw the film, but it's box-office meltdown makes all nominations less likely.

At least this is one place we shouldn't expect Fury Road to turn up, right? (Except of course under stunt ensemble.)

I assume Redmayne/Vikander shmoozed the SAG voters enough to get spots here, though I still think Eddie's vulnerable at AMPAS. In fact, I think, of BJ's entire lead actor slate, Matt Damon's the only one I'd bet money on to get the Oscar nod -- the others are most certainly possible (and very likely for SAG), but it feels like weird things can happen to the category in mid-January (like either Dano or Tremblay showing up).

SAG voters are indeed restrained by ballot placement, so they're guaranteed to vote Mara & Vikander in support. This makes it more likely Lawrence still makes it under lead; if she doesn't, the film's in more trouble than we think. I agree with BJ, that Rampling is more likely to make her move later in the season. And I also agree this could be where Lily Tomlin finally puts in an appearance.

By the way, nobody's speaking of The Revenant in the same terms as they are of Joy, but DiCaprio's spot here is not dissimilar to Lawrence's under actress: more a product of year-long expectation than any enthusiasm for film or performance. Can someone really win an Oscar just because bloggers spent the better part of the year expecting him to?

On another matter: is anyone aware of a spot the Globe nominations will be televised? Since the show is (I believe) on NBC, I'd expect the Today Show to carry them Thursday morning, but the TV listings don't mention it (where they have in the past).

[FilmFan720]

Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

This category seems ripe for a surprise due to the boredom factor of some of these candidates...but don't the most predictable possibilities seem way ahead at this point?

I think you are right, but I don't think the surprise will come from the SAGs. Depp at least seems like the J. Edgar/Conviction type nominee who gets a SAG nod but then disappears from the Oscar race, and Eddie Redmayne could fall in that category too.

[Greg]

I'm getting so confused, so please remind me...are we certain that Mara and Vikander are Supporting here...

I read on another thread here that SAG is requiring voters to vote for Mara and Vikander in support.

[nightwingnova]

Most of yours seem very likely. I will posit that Keaton is most likely not to be recognized. Not that kind of role or performance. He brings virtually nothing special to it. I loved Stanley Tucci in the same film.

Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

This category seems ripe for a surprise due to the boredom factor of some of these candidates...but don't the most predictable possibilities seem way ahead at this point?

Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Lily Tomlin, Grandma

I imagine if Rampling gains further traction, it will be as a late-breaking candidate.

Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

But Paul Dano, Idris Elba, Tom Hardy, and Jacob Tremblay strike me as nearly as likely, with other surprises certainly possible as well.

Female Actor in a "Supporting" Role:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

But who knows? I think there's a good chance we get another Naomi Watts/St. Vincent-style nomination that no one could have predicted.

Ensemble Cast:
Brooklyn
Joy
The Martian
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

This is always a tough one to predict because everything seems on the table -- you never know if voters will like big casts from more minor contenders, or smaller casts from movies they just like a lot. And it's always hard to know if the late releases have been widely seen either. But...this is what I came up with. Although I admit I'm leaning a bit on wishful thinking with the Steve Jobs prediction. And I'm starting to hear some bad buzz on Joy, but for now I'll stick to my gut and keep it in here, because I thought it would likely place when I was watching the movie.

[FilmFan720]

I'm getting so confused, so please remind me...are we certain that Mara and Vikander are Supporting here...

[anonymous1980]

I'll take a crack at it:

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MOTION PICTURE CAST

Bridge of Spies
Alan Alda, Tom Hanks, Amy Ryan, Mark Rylance and Austin Stowell.

Carol
Cate Blanchett, Kyle Chandler, Jake Lacy, Rooney Mara, Sarah Paulson and Cory Michael Smith.

The Martian
Sean Bean, Jessica Chastain, Matt Damon, Jeff Daniels, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Donald Glover, Askel Hennie, Kate Mara, Michael Pena, Sebastian Stan and Kristen Wiig.

Spotlight
Len Cariou, Billy Crudup, Brian D'arcy James, Paul Guilfoyle, Richard Jenkins, Michael Keaton, Rachel McAdams, Mark Ruffalo, Liev Schreiber, Jamey Sheridan, John Slattery and Stanley Tucci.

Steve Jobs
Jeff Daniels, Michael Fassbender, Seth Rogen, Michael Stuhlbarg, Katharine Waterston and Kate Winslet.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Matt Damon as Mark Watney, The Martian
Johnny Depp as Whitey Bulger, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio as Hugh Glass, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne as Lili Elbe/Einar Wegener, The Danish Girl

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett as Carol Aird, Carol
Brie Larson as Joy Newsome, Room
Jennifer Lawrence as Joy Mangano, Joy
Saoirse Ronan as Eillis Lacey, Brooklyn
Lily Tomlin as Elle Reid, Grandma

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Michael Keaton as Walter "Robby" Robinson, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo as Michael Rezendes, Spotlight
Mark Rylance as Rudolf Abel, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone as Rocky Balboa, Creed
Jacob Tremblay as Jack, Room

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Jason Leigh as Daisy Domergue, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara as Therese Belivet, Carol
Rachel McAdams as Sacha Pfieffer, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander as Gerda Wegener, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet as Joanna Hoffman, Steve Jobs

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Furious 7
The Hateful Eight
In the Heart of The Sea
Mad Max: Fury Road

[Big Magilla]

I guess if SAG has boxed voters into considering Rooney Mara as support, I guess she's pretty much locked in. I would love for voters, however, to do for Alicia Vikander what L.A. did, and nominate her for Ex Machina instead of The Danish Girl so that she can win in support for a legitimate supporting performance and not become the butt of future jokes the way Jennifer Connolly pretty much as for winning for A Beautiful Mind.

The other unexpected thing I would love to see is Ian McKellen nominated for Best Actor for Mr. Holmes.