Intermission

For the films of 2015
Big Magilla
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Re: Intermission

Post by Big Magilla »

Heksagon wrote: I don't think there have been very many times where people have won Oscar mainly on sympathy votes for the performer rather than the performance or the film. And when it has happened, it has been in cases where the line-up has been without strong competition.

Not many times, but there have been instances when the narrative was strong enough to win over acclaimed performances.

This year is a rather weak one for lead actor. While there have been a number of praised performances, there isn't one that cries out for an Oscar on merit alone. It's the perfect time for a "he's due" win. I just don't think anyone in Hollywood really thinks that's the case with Leo.

A few cases where the narrative outweighed the merit:

Best Actress - 1960. Deborah Kerr on her sixth nomination and Greer Garson on her seventh, her first in fifteen years, were critics' picks and Shirley MacLaine gave the best performance by a younger actress, but none of them had an emergency tracheotomy just as voting was beginning.

Best Supporting Actress - 1970. Helen Hayes was a beloved figure even if her performance in Airport wasn't necessarily beloved, but she had spent most of her celebrated career on stage. She hadn't been in many films since her 1932 win and hadn't been nominated in 38 years. There was a big push to make Oscar history by having her become the first to win in two categories after a 38 year stretch over the more acclaimed performances of Karen Black and Sally Kellerman.

Best Supporting Actress - 1974. Valentina Cortese was the clear critical favorite, but she had swept the critics awards a year earlier when her film was first released in New York. She was hurt by the Hollywood release date. At the same time Casablanca was emerging as everyone's favorite old movie. Young Hollywood was fascinated by the combination of Ingrid Bergman and Bogie's widow Lauren Bacall working together. Many of them were just learning of Ingrid's shunning by Hollywood and condemnation by the U.S. congress in the late 1940s-early 1960s and saw her re-emergence as an inspiration.
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Re: Intermission

Post by Heksagon »

Greg wrote:
flipp525 wrote:By the way, in another place I frequent, this is the response you get when you try to argue with Leo being "an absolute lock to win Best Actor":

Leo has the narrative. . .
A pity the narratives of the performers often dominate over the narratives of their films.
I don't believe it. Reading journalists and Internet commentators may give that impression, but that's because they find it more interesting to write that way.

I don't think there have been very many times where people have won Oscar mainly on sympathy votes for the performer rather than the performance or the film. And when it has happened, it has been in cases where the line-up has been without strong competition.
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Re: Intermission

Post by Sabin »

I've been traveling a lot recently so I haven't had much access to wifi. I have two thoughts...

I'm really starting to feel like The Martian could end up doing well this year. This is a spread out field like 1988, and (ignoring parallels or lack thereof between Rain Man and The Martian) the latter is a big, popular film that can ride a combination of that and sentiment towards Ridley Scott really might be enough for it. As I mentioned earlier, its three wins from the National Board of Review are pretty huge because otherwise it would almost inevitably have to wait for the Golden Globes to be taken seriously as a contender with possible/likely wins for Comedic/Musical Picture and for Ridley Scott. But now, those wins will solidify something that's already begun.

I haven't seen Creed but I look at this year's Best Director race and I'm wondering if we're overlooking Ryan Coogler for a spot. He's a young, hotshot director in talks for big things. He just got off a very respected indie film and who could have predicted that the seventh Rocky film might be in any Oscar conversation? His work sounds both naturalistic and flashy. I'm far behind on my viewings but having seen Bridge of Spies I'm just a little dubious about Spielberg's chances and looking at the rest of the field I can't help but wonder if Coogler could sneak in. And maybe Michael B. Jordan too.
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Re: Intermission

Post by flipp525 »

From an Academy voter:
Leonardo DiCaprio is not even close to a lock. That status goes to so few, especially for films that haven't been released yet.

And I know, cause I vote. In fact, I was one of those voters who voted for Marcia Gay Harden at the last minute instead of Kate Hudson when I finally got my butt to a screening of "Pollock". Never expected Harden to win, but glad she did. And I wasn't voting for anyone's family legacy, nor were most other Academy members. I was voting for those performances that year, and Harden won me over just a little bit more than Hudson.

As for the lead actors (I'm not part of that branch, so I'll only vote for an actor once the nominees are known), I'd vote for the Geza Rohrig from "Son of Saul" if given the opportunity. Doubt he'll be nominated though, so as for the others, the jury is still out. I need to see "Steve Jobs" still, and "The Revenant" (Leo!), among others.
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Re: Intermission

Post by OscarGuy »

Unfortunately, they've struck so many narratives in the past that have come to fruition that they seem to lose sight of the times they utterly failed. I don't disagree with their assertions that he's the one to beat, but I won't declare anyone a lock until after the SAG Awards.

And speaking of your other predictions, flipp, I think Michael B. Jordan will be the lone representative of diversity in this year's Oscar nominations. His chances continue to escalate. Nominations at the Globes and SAG will further that belief if they happen.
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Re: Intermission

Post by Greg »

flipp525 wrote:By the way, in another place I frequent, this is the response you get when you try to argue with Leo being "an absolute lock to win Best Actor":

Leo has the narrative. . .
A pity the narratives of the performers often dominate over the narratives of their films.
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Re: Intermission

Post by flipp525 »

By the way, in another place I frequent, this is the response you get when you try to argue with Leo being "an absolute lock to win Best Actor":
Leo has the narrative. The already legendary shoot and his physical traumas, a solid star for 20 years, the 4 nominations.

He is the *only* acting lock. [Thinking otherwise] is an obvious logic fail.
It's like the bloggers take personal offense if their declarations of a winner they've already crowned in their minds is challenged.
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Re: Intermission

Post by flipp525 »

The Best Actor category is so weak and amorphous, I think we'll find some surprises on Oscar nomination morning this year along the lines of one (or more) of the following: Steve Carrel or Christian Bale (The Big Short), Michael B. Jordan (Creed), Géza Röhrig (Son of Saul) or Jacob Tremblay (Room).
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Re: Intermission

Post by Greg »

I have a feeling 2015 is shaping up to be a replay of 2013 where Mad Max: Fury Road, like Gravity, will win the most Oscars by taking several tech categories and also having its director win; but, Spotlight, like 12 Years A Slave, with just wins in a supporting acting category plus its screenplay edges out to take Best Picture.
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Re: Intermission

Post by CalWilliam »

Mad Max Fury Road is what I consider a bad, uninteresting, tiresome, noisy, superficial, time-wasting movie. And those are the only good things I have to say about it. George Miller nominated for directing this year will be a travesty. This is becoming truly alarming.
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Re: Intermission

Post by flipp525 »

The problem Spotlight could encounter is that Hollywood has more in common with the Vatican than it likes to admit. It is a town that thrives on illusion, where bad behavior is expected to get swept under the rug, where a Roman Polanski can still win a Best Director Oscar, and where journalists looking to expose the truth aren't exactly sympathetic. Spotlight is doing well with critics because critics are journalists, but I'm not entirely sold on a 100% successful Oscar bid just yet.

Something like The Big Short could easily prove to be a late-breaking alternative that hits the "hot button issue" box in a similar way without the inherent need to look too closely in the mirror for these people.
Last edited by flipp525 on Mon Dec 07, 2015 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Intermission

Post by Mister Tee »

Greg wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:The real place I just find it difficult to imagine Mad Max getting traction is with the Academy's directing branch. The only sequels I can recall them ever nominating were The Bells of St. Mary's and The Godfather films.
You're forgetting Peter Jackson getting nominated and then winning for The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King.
No, I view that as something totally different (and anomalous). The Rings project was unveiled from the start as a three-part film -- there's reason to believe voters actually held back voting for the first film because of this -- so I don't see it as a sequel.

Very cool stat, okri. I do remember 1988 being all over the place, but I wouldn't have though it was that crazy.
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Re: Intermission

Post by Okri »

Because New York Online/Boston Online/Boston all went for Spotlight (hello echo chamber), the fact that LA, New York and NBR went different ways for picture, director and all acting categories is going to be overlooked, but that doesn't happen very often. Indeed, the last time that happened you'd have to go back to 1988.
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Re: Intermission

Post by Greg »

Mister Tee wrote:The real place I just find it difficult to imagine Mad Max getting traction is with the Academy's directing branch. The only sequels I can recall them ever nominating were The Bells of St. Mary's and The Godfather films.
You're forgetting Peter Jackson getting nominated and then winning for The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King.
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Re: Intermission

Post by ITALIANO »

anonymous1980 wrote:I don't play video games and I love Mad Max: Fury Road and think the critical adoration is merited.

Likewise, I'm reasonably well-versed in the cinema of Fellini and Bergman (I rank some of their films as among my all-time favorites), thank you very much.

Ah, and Mad Max Fury Road is as good as a Fellini or a Bergman... Good to know. Now I AM interested.
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