Heksagon wrote: I don't think there have been very many times where people have won Oscar mainly on sympathy votes for the performer rather than the performance or the film. And when it has happened, it has been in cases where the line-up has been without strong competition.
Not many times, but there have been instances when the narrative was strong enough to win over acclaimed performances.
This year is a rather weak one for lead actor. While there have been a number of praised performances, there isn't one that cries out for an Oscar on merit alone. It's the perfect time for a "he's due" win. I just don't think anyone in Hollywood really thinks that's the case with Leo.
A few cases where the narrative outweighed the merit:
Best Actress - 1960. Deborah Kerr on her sixth nomination and Greer Garson on her seventh, her first in fifteen years, were critics' picks and Shirley MacLaine gave the best performance by a younger actress, but none of them had an emergency tracheotomy just as voting was beginning.
Best Supporting Actress - 1970. Helen Hayes was a beloved figure even if her performance in Airport wasn't necessarily beloved, but she had spent most of her celebrated career on stage. She hadn't been in many films since her 1932 win and hadn't been nominated in 38 years. There was a big push to make Oscar history by having her become the first to win in two categories after a 38 year stretch over the more acclaimed performances of Karen Black and Sally Kellerman.
Best Supporting Actress - 1974. Valentina Cortese was the clear critical favorite, but she had swept the critics awards a year earlier when her film was first released in New York. She was hurt by the Hollywood release date. At the same time Casablanca was emerging as everyone's favorite old movie. Young Hollywood was fascinated by the combination of Ingrid Bergman and Bogie's widow Lauren Bacall working together. Many of them were just learning of Ingrid's shunning by Hollywood and condemnation by the U.S. congress in the late 1940s-early 1960s and saw her re-emergence as an inspiration.