New York Film Critics Circle Predictions

[Big Magilla]

I was going to sit this out fearing another travesty like the NBR came up with, but the return to normalcy from the Satellite group gives me some hope for sanity from the NYFCC which can be pretty quirky itself.

Film: Spotlight
(ru: Brooklyn, Room)

Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
(ru: Ian McKellen, (Mr. Holmes), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs))

Actress: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
(ru: Brie Larson (Room), Cate Blanchett (Carol))

Sup. Actor: Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
(ru: Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight ), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies))

Sup. Actress: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
(ru: Rooney Mara (Carol ), Julie Walters (Brooklyn))

Director: Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
(ru: John Crowley (Brooklyn), Lenny Abrahamson (Room))

Screenplay: Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
(ru: Charlie Kaufman (Anomalisa), Adam McKay and Charles Randolph (The Big Short))

Cinematography: Mátyás Erdély (Son of Saul)
(ru: Roger Deakins (Sicario), Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant))

Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul
(ru: Labyrinth of Lies, The Assassin)

Best Documentary: Going Clear
(ru: The Look of Silence, Amy)

Animated Feature: Anomalisa
(ru: Inside Out)

First Film: Laszlo Nemes (Son of Saul)
(ru: Alex Garland (Ex Machina), Josh Mond (James White))

[Mister Tee]

I feel like NY has a chance to launch some candidacies. NBR today seemed content to mostly echo blogosphere favorites; NY is more inclined to go its own way, and, given how many contenders there are in most categories, a key choice tomorrow can have impact that might reach the Oscars (as Marion Cotillard's did, last year).

Because of this, I'm really not confident about most of the acting categories. Usually someone or other is such a front-runner you know NY will fall in step -- Simmons last year, Blanchett the year prior, Waltz & Mo'Nique in that year they so dominated. I don't see anyone falling into that slot this year. Thus, I think it's entirely possible people not listed on this page win all four categories (in three of them, it may even be someone I haven't thought of; the exception is best actress, where I feel I know the field, but may miss because I don't have enough alternate space to include Jennifer Lawrence and Rooney Mara).

The critics can also make news if they elevate one of the late breaking films -- Joy, Hateful Eight, Revenant, or even The Big Short (which David Edelstein labeled the year's best in New York this week). Conversely, I have trouble imagining anyone but Haynes or Nemes winning for directing; it took me much thought to come up with a second alternate.

Enough filibustering. Here are my stabs:

Film: Carol
(ru: Spotlight, Anomalisa)

Actor: Peter Sarsgaard (Experimenter)
(ru: Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Jason Segel (The End of the Tour))

Actress: Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
(ru: Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room))

Sup. Actor: Paul Dano (Love and Mercy)
(ru: Walton Goggins (The Hateful Eight ), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies))

Sup. Actress: Cynthia Nixon (James White)
(ru: Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight ), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs))

Director: Todd Haynes (Carol)
(ru: Laszlo Nemes (Son of Saul), Lenny Abrahamson (Room))

Screenplay: Thomas McCarthy (Spotlight)
(ru: Charlie Kaufman (Anomalisa), Adam McKay and Charles Randpolph (The Big Short))

Cinematography: Mátyás Erdély (Son of Saul)
(ru: Edward Lachman (Carol), Ping Bin Lee (The Assassin))

Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul
(ru: The Assassin, Phoenix)

Best Documentary: In Jackson Heights
(ru: The Look of Silence, Amy)

Animated Feature: Anomalisa
(ru: Inside Out)

First Film: Laszlo Nemes (Son of Saul)
(ru: Josh Mond (James White), Marielle Heller (The Diary of a Teenage Girl))

[anonymous1980]

BEST PICTURE: Spotlight
BEST DIRECTOR: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST SCREENPLAY: Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
BEST ACTOR: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs and Macbeth
BEST ACTRESS: Brie Larson, Room
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl and Ex-Machina
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHER: Mark Ping-Bin-Lee, The Assassin
BEST FOREIGN FILM: Son of Saul
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Anomalisa
BEST NON-FICTION FILM: Amy
BEST FIRST FILM: Alex Garland, Ex-Machina