NBR Predictions
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Re: NBR Predictions
With their love for Warner Bros. being well-known, what are the odds tomorrow is a big day for Creed?
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Re: NBR Predictions
I suppose she could be if 2012's A Royal Affair and Anna Karenina are discounted.
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Re: NBR Predictions
Isn't Alicia Vikander a solid choice here?Big Magilla wrote:Unless they consider Saoirse Ronan or Brie Larson, neither of whom they've recognized before, to have given a breakthrough performance this year, I have a feeling they're going to skip the breakthrough female award this year. I just don't see this group awarding Amy Schumer.
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Re: NBR Predictions
A few observations, first.
The NBR is comprised mostly of elderly film scholars and film buffs, not newspapermen and women, so I was somewhat hesitant about predicting a NBR win for Spotlight until I looked up the company credits on IMDb. It's being distributed b Warner Bros. in France so there goes my hesitation.
Jane Fonda has never been an NBR darling. The only award she's won from them is a career achievement citation in 2007. I don't see a make-up award for her cameo here at all.
NBR likes to award either multiple performers in the same film or performers for multiple performances which gives Cate Blanchett a running start in both areas. She previously won their supporting actress award for three films in 2001 and was part of their ensemble award for LOTR: Return of the King in 2003. She seems due for a lead actress win either for both Carol and Truth of in conjunction with Rooney Mara for Carol.
Unless they consider Saoirse Ronan or Brie Larson, neither of whom they've recognized before, to have given a breakthrough performance this year, I have a feeling they're going to skip the breakthrough female award this year. I just don't see this group awarding Amy Schumer.
I'm also not sure if the change to Best Picture and ten others is a permanent thing or just an anomaly of the last two years, so I'm only listing ten total plus ten independent films, some of which would hve made the ten best list in earlier years.
Ten Best
Spotlight (remainder in alphabetical order)
Black Mass
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Martian
Room
Sicario
Steve Jobs
Top Ten Independent Films
99 Homes
Anomalisa
Beasts of No Nation
Ex Machina
James White
Love & Mercy
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Mr. Holmes
Testament of Youth
The Water Diviner
Actor: Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes)
(alt. Johnny Depp (Black Mass))
Actress: Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara (Carol)
(alt.: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl, Ex Machina, Testament of Youth)
Sup. Actor: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
(alt.: Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation))
Sup. Actress: Julie Walters (Brooklyn)
(alt.: Joan Allen (Room))
Director: Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
(alt.: Todd Haynes (Carol))
Ad. Screenplay: Brooklyn
(alt.: Room)
Orig. Screenplay: Spotlight
(alt.: Bridge of Spies)
Ensemble: Spotlight
(alt.: Steve Jobs)
Animated Feature: Anomalisa
(alt.: When Marnie Was There)
First Film: Alex Garland (Ex Machina)
(alt.: None)
Breakthrough (Male): Jacob Tremblay (Room)
(alt.: Abraham Attah (Beasts of No Nation)
Breakthrough (Female): None
Non-Fiction: Going Clear
(alt.: Amy)
Foreign Film: Son of Saul
(alt.: None)
The NBR is comprised mostly of elderly film scholars and film buffs, not newspapermen and women, so I was somewhat hesitant about predicting a NBR win for Spotlight until I looked up the company credits on IMDb. It's being distributed b Warner Bros. in France so there goes my hesitation.
Jane Fonda has never been an NBR darling. The only award she's won from them is a career achievement citation in 2007. I don't see a make-up award for her cameo here at all.
NBR likes to award either multiple performers in the same film or performers for multiple performances which gives Cate Blanchett a running start in both areas. She previously won their supporting actress award for three films in 2001 and was part of their ensemble award for LOTR: Return of the King in 2003. She seems due for a lead actress win either for both Carol and Truth of in conjunction with Rooney Mara for Carol.
Unless they consider Saoirse Ronan or Brie Larson, neither of whom they've recognized before, to have given a breakthrough performance this year, I have a feeling they're going to skip the breakthrough female award this year. I just don't see this group awarding Amy Schumer.
I'm also not sure if the change to Best Picture and ten others is a permanent thing or just an anomaly of the last two years, so I'm only listing ten total plus ten independent films, some of which would hve made the ten best list in earlier years.
Ten Best
Spotlight (remainder in alphabetical order)
Black Mass
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Martian
Room
Sicario
Steve Jobs
Top Ten Independent Films
99 Homes
Anomalisa
Beasts of No Nation
Ex Machina
James White
Love & Mercy
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Mr. Holmes
Testament of Youth
The Water Diviner
Actor: Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes)
(alt. Johnny Depp (Black Mass))
Actress: Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara (Carol)
(alt.: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl, Ex Machina, Testament of Youth)
Sup. Actor: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
(alt.: Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation))
Sup. Actress: Julie Walters (Brooklyn)
(alt.: Joan Allen (Room))
Director: Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
(alt.: Todd Haynes (Carol))
Ad. Screenplay: Brooklyn
(alt.: Room)
Orig. Screenplay: Spotlight
(alt.: Bridge of Spies)
Ensemble: Spotlight
(alt.: Steve Jobs)
Animated Feature: Anomalisa
(alt.: When Marnie Was There)
First Film: Alex Garland (Ex Machina)
(alt.: None)
Breakthrough (Male): Jacob Tremblay (Room)
(alt.: Abraham Attah (Beasts of No Nation)
Breakthrough (Female): None
Non-Fiction: Going Clear
(alt.: Amy)
Foreign Film: Son of Saul
(alt.: None)
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Re: NBR Predictions
BEST PICTURE: Spotlight
BEST DIRECTOR: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu, The Revenant
BEST ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Carol
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jane Fonda, Youth
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Emma Donaghue, Room
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Inside Out
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE: Jacob Tremblay, Room
BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT: Alex Garland, Ex Machina
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Amy
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Son of Saul
BEST ENSEMBLE: Spotlight
TOP TEN FILMS:
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Creed
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Sicario
Steve Jobs
TOP INDEPENDENT FILMS
99 Homes
Anomalisa
Beasts of No Nation
The Diary of a Teenage Girl
The End of the Tour
Ex-Machina
James White
Love & Mercy
Me & Earl and The Dying Girl
Tangerine
TOP FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILMS
The Assassin
Embrace of the Serpent
Girlhood
Mustang
A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
TOP DOCUMENTARIES
Best of Enemies
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
The Look of Silence
Meru
The Wolfpack
BEST DIRECTOR: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu, The Revenant
BEST ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Carol
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jane Fonda, Youth
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Emma Donaghue, Room
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Inside Out
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE: Jacob Tremblay, Room
BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT: Alex Garland, Ex Machina
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Amy
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Son of Saul
BEST ENSEMBLE: Spotlight
TOP TEN FILMS:
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Creed
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Sicario
Steve Jobs
TOP INDEPENDENT FILMS
99 Homes
Anomalisa
Beasts of No Nation
The Diary of a Teenage Girl
The End of the Tour
Ex-Machina
James White
Love & Mercy
Me & Earl and The Dying Girl
Tangerine
TOP FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILMS
The Assassin
Embrace of the Serpent
Girlhood
Mustang
A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
TOP DOCUMENTARIES
Best of Enemies
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
The Look of Silence
Meru
The Wolfpack
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NBR Predictions
Reversing the pattern of recent years, NBR is first out of the gate this year, Tuesday, one day before NY.
NBR likes Eastwood & Spike Jonze movies (none this year, though Jonze collaborator Charllie Kaufman is accounted for), seemingly anything from Warner Brothers, and is not as fogey-ish as it used to be. They also pick a best picture, and a top ten besides.
Film: Spotlight
Additional Top Ten:
Black Mass
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Creed
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Sicario
Youth
Actor: Michael Caine (Youth)
(alt. Johnny Depp (Black Mass))
Actress: Cate Blanchett (Carol) & (Truth)
(alt.: Rooney Mara (Carol))
Sup. Actor: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
(alt.: Benicio del Toro (Sicario))
Sup. Actress: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) & (Ex Machina)
(alt.: Jane Fonda (Youth))
Director: Alejandro G. Innaritu (The Revenant)
(alt.: Todd Haynes (Carol))
Ad. Screenplay: Brooklyn
(alt.: Room)
Orig. Screenplay: Bridge of Spies
(alt.: Spotlight)
Ensemble: Spotlight
(alt.: Steve Jobs)
Animated Feature: Inside Out
(alt.: Anomalisa)
First Film: Ex Machina
Breakthrough (Male): Jacob Tremblay (Room)
(alt.: Abraham Attah (Beasts of No Nation)
Breakthrough (Female): Bel Powley (Diary of a Teenage Girl)
(alt.: Amy Schumer (Trainwreck))
Non-Fiction: Going Clear
(alt.: Amy)
Foreign Film: Son of Saul
(alt.: Phoenix)
NBR likes Eastwood & Spike Jonze movies (none this year, though Jonze collaborator Charllie Kaufman is accounted for), seemingly anything from Warner Brothers, and is not as fogey-ish as it used to be. They also pick a best picture, and a top ten besides.
Film: Spotlight
Additional Top Ten:
Black Mass
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Creed
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Sicario
Youth
Actor: Michael Caine (Youth)
(alt. Johnny Depp (Black Mass))
Actress: Cate Blanchett (Carol) & (Truth)
(alt.: Rooney Mara (Carol))
Sup. Actor: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
(alt.: Benicio del Toro (Sicario))
Sup. Actress: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) & (Ex Machina)
(alt.: Jane Fonda (Youth))
Director: Alejandro G. Innaritu (The Revenant)
(alt.: Todd Haynes (Carol))
Ad. Screenplay: Brooklyn
(alt.: Room)
Orig. Screenplay: Bridge of Spies
(alt.: Spotlight)
Ensemble: Spotlight
(alt.: Steve Jobs)
Animated Feature: Inside Out
(alt.: Anomalisa)
First Film: Ex Machina
Breakthrough (Male): Jacob Tremblay (Room)
(alt.: Abraham Attah (Beasts of No Nation)
Breakthrough (Female): Bel Powley (Diary of a Teenage Girl)
(alt.: Amy Schumer (Trainwreck))
Non-Fiction: Going Clear
(alt.: Amy)
Foreign Film: Son of Saul
(alt.: Phoenix)