Three Weeks from Today

[The Original BJ]

I don't strongly disagree with the gist of your post, Magilla, though I must say that talk of "fifth slots" this early seems strange to me, especially when so many of these movies seem to have not insignificant Oscar liabilities. Let me put it this way -- I agree that the majority of the films you cite will make up the Best Picture list, but I don't think I'd put money on anyone as a certain Best Director nominee yet, because I find it hard to discern which ones will eventually make up the top echelon of the main race.

We're also hindered -- pleasingly so -- by the fact that the remaining unseen films (The Hateful Eight, Joy, The Revenant) are from directors who have all had recent Oscar successes, so if they deliver, they could all become very big deals awards-wise. Of course, if you flash back a few years, Invictus, The Lovely Bones, and Nine all fit that profile as well, and all three of them cratered, so who knows if one or more of these films will disappoint.

The names you list as your Best Actor predictions seem like the most commonly cited, but a lot of them aren't super strong contenders. I think people may be underestimating Tom Hanks, whose film has done pretty solid box office, and who many feel missed out two years ago. I'm also keeping my eye out for a respected vet like Michael Caine, and I think there's a good chance some of the critics prizes go to some real wild card candidates in this category.

From this vantage point, I have a tough time seeing Saoirse Ronan as the Best Actress winner, simply because her part is so recessive. I do agree with you that Brooklyn will likely be a movie Oscar voters respond to, but Ronan's part just isn't as dominant as some of her competitors, and I think that will at least be a factor in how competitive she can be.

A lot of folks are suggesting that Keaton is his category's frontrunner due to the make-up factor (hey, it worked for Judi Dench for much less!), but he, too, doesn't have so dominant a role that you immediately think, THAT'S the Oscar winner. Of course, I don't really see anyone becoming this year's J.K. Simmons or Jared Leto, so perhaps the combo of strong work this year and last will be enough to carry him to the win.

Okay, my big dissent, for which I'm fully prepared to eat crow if I'm wrong: I'm not sure the Supporting Actress race is going to settle as easily into Mara vs. Vikander the way that everyone seems to think it will, for a whole host of reasons. For starters, I don't think the category fraud is just going to go off without any kind of wrench -- even if Oscar ultimately buys it, I think the critics are going to be more likely to find actual supporting actresses to honor, thereby allowing at least some of those women to gain traction. Plus, we've already seen one organization cite Vikander as lead, and my hunch is that Mara could contend for Best Actress prizes with groups that don't care as much about Oscar "predicting" as well, which I think would prevent any consensus narrative from forming early on in the supporting race. (I haven't seen Vikander yet, but to call Mara anything other than a lead is mental institution-level insanity.) And on top of all that, there are the films. I think Carol will do well enough at the nomination stage, but having now seen it, I'm a bit cautious about its ability to win any major Oscars -- it's a bit more emotionally distant than Oscar usually likes. As for The Danish Girl, it has to contend with those mediocre reviews, which I hardly think will be a deal-breaker given Vikander's personal acclaim, but are never a plus in an acting candidate's column. It may well be that one of these women do end up the winner, but I could see quite a bit happening between now and the Oscars to upset this preordained narrative.

[FilmFan720]

You know what's a lock right now...NOTHING! Why can't we see what will play out this season, where the cards start lying, before we decide who is going to lose momentum in January.

[Big Magilla]

Three weeks from the today on 12/1 awards season begins in earnest as the National Board of Review awards are announced. A day later the New York Film Critics have their say and four days after that the L.A. Film Critics chime in. SAG nominations are announced on 12/9 and Golden Globe nominations come out the day after that on 12/10. The Critics Choice nominations follow a day later. A month and a day from today we will know as much as we will know until the Oscar nominations are announced on January 14th.

At this point we are still in the dark. The Hateful Eight and Joy have been screened and The Revenant screens on 11/22. Frankly the trailers for all three leave me cold, but that doesn't mean the films themselves will. I think Joy is particularly vulnerable. The film was completely revamped from the first screening to the second one. I think they're still tinkering with it. That can't be good. As for In the Heart of the Sea, no one, but no one is talking about it anymore.

Predicting ten Best Picture nominations is particularly tough this year. I can only come up with four sure bets and a whole lot of "maybes". At this point I think the sure bets are the box-office phenomenon The Martian, the critical juggernaut Spotlight and two emotionally riveting films that bring audiences to unabashed tears of joy, Brooklyn and Room.

I think Spotlight will start out strong. Print journalists and former print journalists in particular love it so it will do quite well with critics. Although I initially thought the Academy would go for a popular film like The Martian or Bridge of Spies, which is still playing strong to older audiences, I'm beginning to think that word-of-mouth hits Brooklyn and Room will by-pass both of them in the long run. Brooklyn, which cuts across generational lines, probably has the longer legs.

As for the remaining six, I'm thinking Bridge of Spies, Carol and Steve Jobs are likely with two of the unseen, The Revenant and either Joy or The Hateful Eight making the cut. The tenth nominee could be just about anything else that's out there.

Best Actress is going to be between Saorise Ronan in Brooklyn and Brie Larson in Room. Larson has the stronger dramatic arc but a Best Picture win for Brooklyn could pull Ronan along with it. Cate Blanchett will be nominated for Carol and Jennifer Lawrence is always a threat so I see her being nominated for Joy even if the film itself is a mess. Carey Mulligan, once thought a sure shot for Suffragette, is extremely vulnerable. That spot could go to one of two old ladies, either Lily Tomlin for Grandma or Maggie Smith for The Lady in the Van, both if Lawrence fails to connect.

Best Actor is a wild card. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) is the likely front-runner for critics' awards but the Academy will probably look elsewhere. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) is looking ever more likely with Matt Damon (The Martian), Johnny Depp (Black Mass) and Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) the most likely other nominees at this point.

Supporting Actress is between the two ringers, Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl and Rooney Mara (Carol), although the Academy could rebel and give it to a true supporting performance. I'd love to see Julie Walters (Brooklyn) beat the odds, but most pundits don't even have her as a likely nominee.

Supporting Actor will probably go to Michael Keaton as a consolation for losing Best Actor last year and as a consolation for Spotlight losing Best Picture after dominating the critics' awards.

Best Director is impossible to predict. A win for Brooklyn or Room could pull in John Crowley or Lenny Abrahamson but a split could also happen. Spotlight could win Best Picture and Tom McCarthy could lose or the film could lose and he could win. Then again, Ridley Scott could pull off a win for The Martian. The fifth slot is open with Todd Haynes (Carol) the most likely of the direcors whose work has bene seen. I don't see Inarritu getting back-to-back nominations, but everyone else seems to, so who knows.