Where We Stand, Post-Festival

For the films of 2015
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by flipp525 »

Sabin wrote:Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Would this be the first Best Actress slate comprised entirely of one-word film titles? C'mon, Oscar trivia geniuses.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10747
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by Sabin »

I figure I may as well do my first round of the year.

Best Picture
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Joy
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Carol
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
David O. Russell, Joy
Ridley Scott, The Martian

Best Actor
Michael Caine, Youth
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Reverant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Best Supporting Actor
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Robert De Niro, Joy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress
Joan Allen, Room
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Original Screenplay
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Joy
Son of Saul
Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay
Carol
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Steve Jobs

Best Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Sicario
Steve Jobs
Last edited by Sabin on Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
"How's the despair?"
dws1982
Emeritus
Posts: 3790
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 9:28 pm
Location: AL
Contact:

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by dws1982 »

Too bad it's a fairly small film from a small, start-up distributor, because Andrew Garfield absolutely deserves Best Actor consideration for 99 Homes. (Michael Shannon does as well, but it's a much less sympathetic role.) The movie itself isn't great (or overly plausible in some spots), but those two are very, very good.
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 13668
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by OscarGuy »

Concussion was apparently neutered by the studio at the request of the football industry. It was briefly touched on when the trailer came out a month or so ago. I suspect that it's a nail that will be hammered during Oscar season should the film turn out any kind of decent. Smith's accent sounds ok, but everyone seems to be bashing actors doing accents, so who knows.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19318
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by Big Magilla »

Leo has five nominations including his first in support for What's Eating Gilbert Grape. If he's nominated for The Revenant, it will be his sixth nomination which would put him close to Paul Newman who won on his seventh and Peter O'Toole who never won at all, but at 40/41 he still presumably has a lot of years ahead of him so this notion of his being "due" isn't going to be enough to get him to the podium for the type of movie that usually doesn't get major nominations. No one is predicting the film, Leo and Inarritu will win seems to be doing so because of the film's plot, the book its based on or anything other than that it's Leo being directed by last year's Best Director winner. Inarritu isn't John Ford or Joe Mankiewicz. He's not going to be a back-to-back Oscar winner despite the statistically drawn "odds".

Fassbender is a stronger contender at this point, but if you want to bet on an as-yet seen performance I'd say Will Smith has as good a shot for Concussion which is a topical film about the South African forensic neuropathologist who made the first discovery of CTE, the football-related brain trauma, in a pro player.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10747
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by Sabin »

Everybody is writing down Leonardo DiCaprio's name in ink saying he's due. There have been some advance screenings to suggest the movie is in fact pretty great. I have no idea who could win instead of DiCaprio but I think it's impossible to write down the guy's name in stone as the winner at this point because, well, there's gotta be a reason he hasn't won yet, right? I mean, DiCaprio's mission for the past decade and a half has been to win an Academy Award and it hasn't happened yet. He's got four nominations to his resume but the truth is shouldn't he have closer to twice that? Why wasn't he nominated for Titanic, Catch Me If you Can, Revolutionary Road, J. Edgar, and Django Unchained (putting aside The Departed because he also took on a South African accent that year)? Maybe he just gives performances that are hard for Academy voters to warm up to.
"How's the despair?"
Mister Tee
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 8637
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by Mister Tee »

From all I've heard, Mark Ruffalo was the only one in Spotlight with enough screen-time to maybe make a best actor run...but even he's opted to go in supporting.

I certainly recognize all those elements BJ cites in Fassbender's performance -- they're why I think he's a potential winner. I just meant to say he's not in the "sympathetic guy with hardship" category, which has helped Firth, McConaughey and Redmayne in recent years; his character challenges the audience to find him compelling enough to overcome their dislike. This is more in tune with Whitaker 2006/Day-Lewis 2007, both of whom benefited from a lack of easy-listening alternatives and a critics' sweep.

DiCaprio, with his four losing nominations, certainly has the profile of someone due, but, as Peter O'Toole showed us vs. Whitaker, the movie/performance has to have the goods. (I'm thinking also of 1977, when it seemed ANYTHING Al Pacino did after four consecutive losses would have to finally get him the prize...but ANYTHING didn't extend as far as Bobby Deerfield.) The only one who's recently got away with a disappointing film was Kate Winslet, but she had two films, Harvey Weinstein, the Holocaust, and a surprise best picture nomination to help her along.

I also think Michael Fassbender has a profile that, in combination with a dominant/highly-praised performance, fits for an Oscar winner -- a previous nomination, another role that had him in the conversation, and, as BJ says, a reputation as an actor that reassures voters the choice won't come back to haunt them (like Jeremy Irons, who had a Tony, a string of solid credits, and a performance in Dead Ringers that told voters Reversal of Fortune wasn't a one-shot deal). As far as Sorkin characters never winning Oscars...Spielberg characters went almost four decades winless and finally pulled one off.

Last year was certainly atypical in having Boyhood and Grand Budapest in the final rounds, but, as I said, there were also some big-ticket items in the best picture race. And some may, of course, turn up this year, if Joy/Revenant/Hateful Eight break through. But, at this moment, so many of the ones spoken of most seriously -- Carol, Spotlight, Beasts of No Nation, Room, even The Martian -- have been sleeper-ish; Steve Jobs and Bridge of Spies are the only blue chips that seem to be real best picture candidates (and the latter seems second-tier). Oscar bloggers have had very high pre-season pick percentages in recent years because so many of the obvious candidates panned out; this year, I don't think it's headed that way.
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19318
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by Big Magilla »

Spotlight is an ensemble film. All the actors, including nominal lead Mark Ruffalo, are being campaigned in support. Keaton plays the Boston Globe editor. Think Jason Robards as Ben Bradley in All the President's Men.
The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4312
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by The Original BJ »

OscarGuy wrote:What about Michael Keaton for Spotlight? I'm not sure how big a role he has in the film, but if he were to get nominated, residual good will + should have won last year sentiment might push him to a win this year?
Isn't his role more of a supporting one?

I mean, going supporting IS the hip thing to do these days...
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 13668
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by OscarGuy »

What about Michael Keaton for Spotlight? I'm not sure how big a role he has in the film, but if he were to get nominated, residual good will + should have won last year sentiment might push him to a win this year?
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Okri
Tenured
Posts: 3345
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by Okri »

Could he win without campaigning?
The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4312
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by The Original BJ »

I have to agree with Mister Tee's feeling that Michael Fassbender could very well end up being the Best Actor winner. I guess I just don't view the performance as "not the type that wins" in the way you guys do -- it's a pretty dominant role, in a biography, from an actor who most people assume will be winning an Oscar at some point.

Certainly Leonardo DiCaprio, based on career points and his director's recent track record, could be a very possible winner as well, though I of course would want to wait until anyone has even seen his movie before calling him the frontrunner the way some have.

But after that, I just don't really see a ton of potential win options in this category. Potential nomination candidates we've already seen (Depp, Damon) are place-filler at best. The middling notices for The Danish Girl make back-to-back triumphs for Redmayne exceedingly unlikely. Voters obviously like Michael Caine, but enough for a third Oscar?

I'm not saying there won't be potential sleeper candidates up ahead (Will Smith?), but Fassbender is by far the strongest known Best Actor candidate as late as mid-October, in a field that keeps thinning out week by week. Not saying he's GOING to win, but I see no reason why he COULDN'T.
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10747
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by Sabin »

I could see it being a very atypical Oscar year. But wasn't last year as well? Both in terms of films and the reversal of foregone conclusion?

I suppose Fassbender has a shot, but it's not an emotional performance, a villain, or laden with affectation. And it's a Sorkin performance. No Sorkin performances have won and I don't think that's by accident. I think they don't win because his ideal actor is another guy who never won: Cary Grant. His characters are witty, smart, confident, comfortable....yknow, the kinda stuff that gets nominated.
"How's the despair?"
Okri
Tenured
Posts: 3345
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by Okri »

Edmonton International Film Festival.
Mister Tee
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 8637
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Where We Stand, Post-Festival

Post by Mister Tee »

Sabin wrote:Steve Jobs is pretty much guaranteed nominations for Picture, Actor (Fassbender), Supporting Actress (Winslet), and Adapted Screenplay. Director, Original Score, Cinematography, and Film Editing are likely bets as well. It's hard to think of a nomination for Seth Rogen without immediately comparing it to Jonah Hill's pathway to laurels. In both Moneyball and The Wolf of Wall Street, he just had more to do throughout. Had Steve Jobs contained one or two more scenes of young Jobs and Woz, I'd say for sure, he's in the running. As is, I'm just not sure he has enough to do. If anything is going to win, it's going to be Sorkin.
I don't see how you can dismiss the chances of Fassbender winning. Not to say a character so off-putting would be a natural choice any year, but this year's best actor race has been cratering left and right, and it now looks quite possible it ends up like '06/'07, with so few candidates one actor sweeps the big three critics' groups and wins the season by acclamation.

Apropos of which: the reviews for Don Cheadle's Miles Ahead are up today, and they're on the whole not pretty, making it unlikely the film will even be released this year, let alone be a nomination prospect. The NY Festival has had a couple of glowing years, but this seems an off one for them: their best-received screenings were repeats from elsewhere (Carol, Steve Jobs, Son of Saul); their opener (The Walk) was an embarrassing box-office flop; Bridge of Spies would be the high-point premiere, and it appears middling.

The Walk's belly-flop is a bit of a surprise to me; the reviews were obviously mixed on the film as a whole, but fairly unanimous on the tech achievement of the walk itself, and I thought audiences would be wooed in by it. Are people reluctant to be reminded of the World Trade Center in any way? Or are there others like me, who dreaded the idea of vertigo-inducing height shots? (Maybe those reports of people vomiting at screenings weren't the best sales pitch)

Also on the best actor front: I of course haven't seen Concussion, but I have seen the coming attraction, and...well, Will Smith does an accent. South African, it sounds like. Hasn't that been the sort of thing that's brought filler nominations in the past?

okri, where did you see Son of Saul?

I'm actually getting the idea this might be an atypical Oscar year all around. Most of the prediction sites are sticking to the assumption that the year-long-awaited films will dominate the roster, as they have in most recent contests (last year less so than 2012 and '13, but, even there, Birdman, The Imitation Game, Foxcatcher and The Theory of Everything had been on the lists from the start). But I see lots more surprises: The Martian's apparent trajectory for $200 million makes it a candidate in many categories; there seems to be strong enthusiasm for Room, which wasn't on the radar pre-Toronto; and Son of Saul would fit right into that scenario. It may not be the year to assume Joy, The Revenant and The Hateful 8 are just going to coast in and grab up glamour spots at the end.
Post Reply

Return to “88th Predictions and Precursors”