The Fall Season arrives

[OscarGuy]

Ex Machina isn't a competitor. Oscar Isaac will continue to have to wait. Best Actor is way too tough right now.

And will they nominate Michael Fassbender for Macbeth or for Steve Jobs? That's an important question.

[Big Magilla]

The Best Actress race is really strong this year.

I think the push for Vikander to get nominated for something will solidify behind The Danish Girl especially if the film is a strong contender in the other major categories. I loved her in Ex Machina but the push for that one seems to be in Oscar Isaac's favor. He and Dohmnall Gleeson are also perfectly cast and Isaac has been on the periphery of a nomination for the last couple of years so maybe he'll get in but both male categories are strong once again this year so it will be an uphill battle for him as well.

[Precious Doll]

Best Actress: Blanchett, Mulligan, Ronan, Tomlin, Vikander. These are all strong contenders. Will any of them make room for former winner Lawrence in the yet-to-be-seen Joy? Most vulnerable are Vikander and Tomlin. Vikander could be campaigned in support

So you don't think Vikander has any chance of getting in for her lead performance in Testament of Youth? All eyes seem to only be on The Danish Girl.

No. Testament of Youth isn't on anyone's radar. The film flopped and I can't imagine there will be any kind of campaign run for her performance or the film. The only chance she may have is with the BFTAs.

[Reza]

Best Actress: Blanchett, Mulligan, Ronan, Tomlin, Vikander. These are all strong contenders. Will any of them make room for former winner Lawrence in the yet-to-be-seen Joy? Most vulnerable are Vikander and Tomlin. Vikander could be campaigned in support

So you don't think Vikander has any chance of getting in for her lead performance in Testament of Youth? All eyes seem to only be on The Danish Girl.

[ksrymy]

[T]oo stupid and ugly for most older voters to take seriously.

I find this hilarious. It's got an astounding visual aesthetic, and only an idiot wouldn't notice this.

[Big Magilla]

I think this is going to be another year in which the critical successes (Steve Jobs, Spotlight, ?), take the lion's share of the critics' awards but the Oscar goes to a more popular entertainment. What that will be I don't know. It could be something yet to be seen (Bridge of Spies, The Revenant) or something seen by critics but not by the public at large as yet (Black Mass). Character driven films like Carol, Brooklyn, Suffragette and The Danish Girl should do well in acting, directing and writing categories and some, if not all, will be nominated for Best Picture but it will be an uphill battle against both the critical smashes and the box-office hits that take the public by storm.

With films like Bridge of Spies, The Hateful Eight, Joy and The Revenant screening late, it's strongly possible given its absurdly early cut-off that the Screen Actors Guild will overlook a few potentially strong Oscar contenders - Leo DiCaprio and Tom Hardy in The Revenant , Jennifer Lawrence in Joy and Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight. That will mean one of two things. Either SAG will throw a spotlight on other contenders, giving them a stronger shot than currently thought possible, or be so out of touch with pundits' predictions/ingrained expectations that Oscar voters will ignore them. Given post SAG-Oscar transitions, it will probably be a little of both.

I saw both I'll See You in My Dreams and Mad Max: Fury Road in the past few days. I don't see either making the major categories. The former is too slight, the latter is too stupid and ugly for most older voters to take seriously.

My acting predictions as of the moment:

Best Actor: Redmayne, Fassbender, Depp, Caine and the yet-to-be-seen DiCaprio. Most vulnerable: Caine, who already has two Oscars. Possible substitutes: Don Chealde (Miles Ahead, Tom Hiddleston (I Saw the Light), Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) all in eagerly anticipated biopics.

Best Actress: Blanchett, Mulligan, Ronan, Tomlin, Vikander. These are all strong contenders. Will any of them make room for former winner Lawrence in the yet-to-be-seen Joy? Most vulnerable are Vikander and Tomlin. Vikander could be campaigned in support. Tomlin could make way for another legend, Maggie Smith in The Lady in the Van. It's also possible that voters will ignore the expected campaign and nominate Rooney Mara in lead for Carol.

Best Supporting Actor: Elba, Keaton, Keitel and the yet-to-be-seen Hardy and Rylance. This, however, is a crowded field this year so anything could happen. Both Edgerton and Cumberbatch could make the grade for the heavily promoted Black Mass.

Best Supporting Actress: Mara, Winslet, Walters, Bonham Carter and the yet-to-be-seen Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight. If Leigh falters and Vikander stays in lead, next mostly likely could be Elizabeth Olsen in I Saw the Light.

[Okri]

Other curios from the year thus far

1. Blythe Danner in I'll See You in My Dreams[/b]

It quietly racked up north of 7 million dollars, which isn't a huge tally by any means, but for an unheralded indie that by definition had a muted initial response it is playing very well. It will likely appeal to older voters as well who already have the DVD (so clearly there's going to be some push, even if it's not big). It's a wee thing - a B/B- film at best - but in a year likely to be dominated by young actresses (Ronan, Mulligan, Blunt, Vikander, Mara), I can see it slipping in and getting a few citations here and there.

2. The Mad Max thing

Okay, I totally echo you guys on the likely AMPAS response (a strong tech haul would be overperforming, I think). I'm fascinated at the number of people who truly feel this can go further than that - it doesn't have that extra hook. I'm very curious how it does in critics awards, though. With The Dark Knight, there was a singular achievement the critics to rally around and the film itself didn't get much recognition in those awards. But it's been a weak year so far - recalling that at this point last year, two of the three critical favourites/AMPAS films had been released, the BJ adored blockbusters Guardian of the Galaxy and Rise of the Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (seriously, titles should never have more than one "of the." Katurian was right). Could LA go for it? They do weird things like that in weakish years. Outside of Carol, it's hard to imagine anything becoming a critical force at this point.

[flipp525]

I'd love it if both Lily Tomlin and Jane Fonda (for Youth) could manage to slip into the race this year. Their work together on Grace and Frankie is a joy to watch. And we also haven't had a good Beatrice Straight-style cameo nomination in awhile.

[Big Magilla]

I'm utterly bemused by the widespread Internet support for Mad Max: Fury Road. First, it amazes me people liked the movie so much -- I admired its technical aspects, but found its story just completely unremarkable. (By contrast, even while considering The Dark Knight an unlikely possibility for film/director recognition, I thought it was clearly, narratively/conceptually, a cut above 95% of summer/action films.) But, second, do these people not notice that, where Dark Knight did half a billion at the box-office, Fury Road barely matched its $150 million budget in earnings? That's not the background of a nomination over-achiever; Academy voters like hits, especially when the film is commercially-conceived. And the idea that Miller might get a directing citation -- what precedent is there for that? Nolan couldn't get in there for Inception, which was original/well-praised/a huge hit. There's just no sign the directors' branch is inclined to go for action directors, ever.

Thank you for that. I was beginning to think I was the only one left on the planet who was befuddled by the bizarre notion that this two hour chase film about post-apocalyptic cannibals would be a serious contender for Best Picture and Best Actress, an idea put forth, no doubt, from the same people who think Kanye West would make an amazing President and Kim Kardashian an awesome first lady.

[Mister Tee]

Your season previews are my favorite part of UAADB.

Many thanks for the hat-tip.

I'm utterly bemused by the widespread Internet support for Mad Max: Fury Road. First, it amazes me people liked the movie so much -- I admired its technical aspects, but found its story just completely unremarkable. (By contrast, even while considering The Dark Knight an unlikely possibility for film/director recognition, I thought it was clearly, narratively/conceptually, a cut above 95% of summer/action films.) But, second, do these people not notice that, where Dark Knight did half a billion at the box-office, Fury Road barely matched its $150 million budget in earnings? That's not the background of a nomination over-achiever; Academy voters like hits, especially when the film is commercially-conceived. And the idea that Miller might get a directing citation -- what precedent is there for that? Nolan couldn't get in there for Inception, which was original/well-praised/a huge hit. There's just no sign the directors' branch is inclined to go for action directors, ever.

My inclusion of Tomlin's Grandma performance was largely based on the grosses -- it's one of very few indies to open strong this year -- but now that I've seen it I'm even more favorably disposed. I agree wth BJ that the film is slight -- it has just the sort of slickness you'd expect from Paul Weitz, even in indie disguise -- but it's genuinely funny much of the way, and Tomlin truly dominates. I've found Tomlin's one-woman stage shows pretty glorious (I've seen three different ones, including the sensational Search for Signs of Intelligent Life), but I've never really felt she integrated all that well with other actors on film. Here, though, she's just about perfect, and, if it's not a year full of undeniable performances, she might well slip in.

[The Original BJ]

To just recap a little bit based on what we've seen, I continue to be surprised at the amount of doubt some have with respect to Inside Out, thus violating my favorite rule of Oscar predicting: that a candidate you already KNOW has all the credentials (wildly enthusiastic reviews, big box office, a studio brand name viewed as award-caliber) is a far more likely nominee than an entire slate of sight-unseen options, many of which will fall by the wayside. The hang-up seems to be the notion that Pixar's Oscar cache has fallen in recent years, but that's mostly due to two sequels, one of which was widely viewed as atrocious; Inside Out has way more in common with the Pixar efforts that did succeed than the ones that didn't.

That being said, I may be guilty of violating my own rule here but...I think the folks still touting Mad Max as a Best Picture possibility are out on way more of a limb than they think. Even Mark Harris just Tweeted that he could see up to double-digit nominations for the movie (though at least he acknowledged Best Picture, though in his mind a possibility, was still a stretch) -- that strikes me as putting WAY too much confidence in a movie that's the fourth film in a franchise that never once got a single nomination, in a genre that Oscar voters don't like, from a director who already has one Oscar and who isn't exactly anyone's idea of overdue for more awards attention. I'm fully prepared for this to basically be The Dark Knight all over again, with many folks getting their hopes up for something that has virtually zero precedent.

Lily Tomlin actually feels like the first solid acting candidate of the year to me. Her movie is pretty wispy, and even beyond that there are elements of certain scenes/performances that feel handled in a really clunky manner. But Tomlin is on screen the entire time, and gets her best movie role in ages, playing a type of character that we don't often see on screen, much less as the film-dominating protagonist. Given that her career resurgence has been a big narrative this year, an Oscar nod to go along with her recent Emmy nod seems at least a possibility. (Though not, in my opinion, anything like a certainty.)

I've seen one of the fall movies people have been heavily touting -- Suffragette -- and though I'm under embargo from revealing its content, I found it inoffensive but fairly dull, almost like a poor (wo)man's Selma. It's interesting that both of Focus's award candidates (this and The Danish Girl) seem to be hitting almost exactly the same mark: VERY IMPORTANT films set in early twentieth century Europe addressing gender issues of the time, but still relevant today! It'll be interesting to see whether or not there will be room for both in the race.

[FilmFan720]

If you take to heart Sasha Stone’s observation – that Million Dollar Baby was the last best picture winner not to have been screened by the end of this period – it might be the whole shooting match)

But, Million Dollar Baby was the end of a three-year run of post-Toronto premieres (after Return of the King and Chicago), so it may not be too much of an abberation!

[ksrymy]

Your season previews are my favorite part of UAADB.

[Mister Tee]

So, amazingly enough, Fall Preview issues have hit the stands, and it’s all about to begin: Venice kicks off Tuesday, Telluride covers Labor Day weekend; Toronto is off and running right after, with New York not far behind. Over the next several weeks, we’ll get a concentrated dose of what might figure into this year’s Oscar race. (If you take to heart Sasha Stone’s observation – that Million Dollar Baby was the last best picture winner not to have been screened by the end of this period – it might be the whole shooting match). So, time for a quick “where have we been/where are we going?”

Before we kick off, I have to share this verbatim quote from a poster at Awards Daily. I know, I know: I shouldn’t read them. But the absurdity keeps drawing me in…and this particular example really encapsulates everything that makes me despise the Oscar bloggers and how they’ve infected the race:

“Imagine if we all waited for the reviews, the critics awards and even the precursor nominations before we declared people locks. I mean, eww, that's absolutely no fun and that's not award season I wanna see.”

Say a quick prayer of thanks we at least deal in reality here.

Not that dealing in reality brings cheer this year. 2015 is, to date, an awards competition without a pulse. And the upcoming slate doesn’t brim with promise, either. I knew we’d pay for that bumper crop of major works by major directors in 2012/2013, and, for the second year in a row, I believe we are.

But that’s getting slightly ahead of ourselves. What do we have currently on view? Um…pretty much what BJ cited at the end of June: Inside Out the only best picture possibility; Paul Dano maybe an acting candidate; Lily Tomlin (the only post-BJ addition) possibly contending for lead actress, depending how the year goes. I imagine some are still arguing for Mad Max: Fury Road, or, based on grosses, Straight Outta Compton, but you’ll have to do that without my help. This is the slim 2015 haul to date.

There are, of course, shadow hopefuls -- films singled out at early-year festivals, untested in the marketplace, but seemingly with the critical heft to compete. This year’s Sundance largely fizzled (compared to last year, with its two best picture nominees, and both supporting trophies), but Brooklyn is, by most accounts, the sort of crowd-pleasing/also-good effort that could do very well with AMPAS. And Cannes yielded (besides Inside Out) the hugely-well-reviewed (certain acting contender) Carol, plus two others – Youth and Sicario –that got more divided response, but look good for at least potential acting nominations, and possibly more, depending on the year-end outlook.

Why am I so un-sanguine about the season to come? Two primary reasons: first, very few A-team directors are taking the field this year. The Oscars have been kept afloat over the past half-decade or more by a few aging auteurs (Eastwood, Scorsese, Spielberg, Allen, Malick, the Coens) and the 90s indie class – that hugely talented group that rose up from about 1992-1998, many from Sundance, and have hung around far more successfully than their 70s forebears did: Tarantino, Aronofsky, David O. Russell, Ang Lee, Wes and Paul Thomas Anderson, Fincher, Payne, Cuaron, Linklater. That vast group contributed much to the ‘12/’13 boom…but only three – Spielberg, Tarantino and Russell -- have efforts coming up this Fall (Allen of course already crashed and burned over the summer).

Naturally, I have hopes for those three, and for a few others who’ve been more hit and miss – Danny Boyle, Innaritu (back again), and Guillermo del Toro (though his Crimson Peak is supposedly pure genre – something we also heard about The Departed). Based on his True Detective work, I have some expectation for Fukunaga’s Beasts of No Nation. And of course I root for lesser/fledgling directors to surprise us with sparkling vehicles. As the grandfather in Lies My Father Told Me answers when asked if he believes in miracles, “No…but I rely on them.” It’s just hard to get hopes terribly high when some of the most touted entries come from Bob Zemeckis, Ron Howard and Tom Hooper.

Second reason to be less than optimistic: subject matter. I suppose it’s a natural outgrowth of all the celebrity impersonation acting Oscars we’ve seen lately, but, good god, there are a ton of biopics coming our way. Whitey Bulger, The Krays, Lance Armstrong, Dalton Trumbo, Miles Davis, Steve Jobs, Hank Williams, Edward Snowden – many of them interesting enough guys (note: all guys), but do we really need to see so many such films at one time? No discredit to the actors, many of whom I’m sure’ll do fine (Tom Hardy playing both Krays seems like Oscar catnip), but I’m bored in advance by the prospect. Add in a few other based-on-reality stories -- Spotlight, Bridge of Spies, The Walk, Stonewall – and you start to wonder if the art of fiction has disappeared from Hollywood completely.

There’s also the matter of “haven’t we already seen this?” -- The Walk repeats the action from Man on Wire; The Krays were done in a Brit film (albeit a quarter century ago); The Secret in Their Eyes rehashes the foreign film winner of just a few years back; and In the Heart of the Sea is advertising itself as pretty much the story of Moby Dick. (Freeheld and Our Brand is Crisis also qualify, for those who saw the source documentaries.)

Still…something will come along; there will be an awards race of some kind. We’ll know a fair bit more (and will discuss it) once this wave has passed. But there’ll also be a late wave. The list of films not showing at the festivals, and premiering sometime from late November to late December, is fairly long, and includes some of the most anticipated: By the Sea, In the Heart of the Sea, Joy, Snowden, The Revenant, The Hateful 8 and Concussion. So, even if it’s not a great race, the suspense should be drawn out for a while.

More on this when the festivals have wrapped. Anything people think I missed/undercalled/overstated?