Toronto Line-up

[OscarGuy]

Toronto had three distinct periods where Best Picture nominees frequently emerged. The first set was 1981, 1983 & 1984. The second was 1996, 1998, 1999 & 2000. The third has been notably longer 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 & 2014. Either this is another one-year anomoaly like 1982, 1997 and 2011 or its the end of their third cycle. I doubt Room will be a Best Picture nominee, though this does give Brie Larson a shot at an Oscar nomination (finally).

[Okri]

Room won the People's Choice Awards.

A24 is on a really strong run, isn't it?

[Sabin]

He's apparently incredible in Ten Thousand Saints as well.

[HarryGoldfarb]

So apparently we have to add Ethan Hawke to the Best Actor talk... Born to be Blue reviews might be the best of his career. Being a previous nominee also helps.

[Sabin]

AMENDING THIS AFTER SEEING THE H ATEFUL 8

I also think it bodes well for films like The End of the Tour, Love and Mercy, James White, Room, and other smaller films to court acting nominations.

Best Actor seems a bit sparse. Eddie Redmayne and Michael Fassbender haven't earned rave reviews but they'll likely get in. We haven't seen The Revenant, Bridge of Spies, or Miles Ahead. Burnt looks like a parody of an Oscar film. I've been dubious of Michael Caine's chances for Youth mainly because it's a Sorrentino film, but increasingly it looks like their might be room for him in this field.

Best Actress seems pretty full already with Cate Blanchett for Truth (apparently Carol is her supporting bid), Rooney Mara for Carol (if Cate Blanchett goes supporting), Carey Mulligan for Suffragette, Lily Tomlin for Grandma, Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, Brie Larsen for Room, Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years, Emily Blunt for Sicario, and a heretofore unseen Jennifer Lawrence for Joy.

Nobody knows anything about the Best Supporting Actor race because we don't know who are the standouts from Bridge of Spies, Joy, or The Revenant. Tom Hardy seems on the cusp of a nomination so unless The Revenant is some kind of depressing bummer (which could happen), I think he's in. Since he first began working in the English language, no film of his has missed an acting nomination. I'm seeing The Hateful Eight tonight so hopefully I can shed some light on that one. The only nomination that I'm pretty sure of is if Idris Elba goes supporting for Beasts of No Nation, then he's your nominee and likely your winner. Nominations for Seth Rogen and Michael Keaton seemed tailored to Oscar narratives, but they could happen. All of this likely leaves Jason Segal for The End of the Tour and Paul Dano for Love and Mercy on the outside fighting in. Having seen The H ateful 8, Kurt Russell has an outside chance at a nomination but I wouldn't bank on it.

If Cate Blanchett or Rooney Mara are pushed for supporting actress, they could likely win. Alicia Vinkander for The Danish Girl, definitely. Then a mix of high profile possibilities like Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs, Helena Bonham Carter for Suffragette, or Amy Ryan for Bridge of Spies, or some under the radar contenders like Joan Allen for Room, Cynthia Nixon for James White, or Julie Walters for Brooklyn.

Having seen The H ateful 8, Jennifer Jason Leigh will likely get a nomination.

[Mister Tee]

It'll be the weekend before I collect my overall thoughts about the festival yield, but I'll tip my hand a bit and say I see things much the way you do. Steve Jobs and Beasts of No Nation are the only two movies to show up in this two-week miasma that I think have a major shot at a best picture nomination (I'm not sure even they would in a year of five). I agree with all the earlier-festival films you noted -- particularly Sicario, which despite showing at Cannes has somehow maintained a low profile and is surprising people, and Son of Saul, which is apparently blowing people away and, given that it deals with Oscar's favorite topic, might slip into the major categories.

As for what's still to come, everything you said -- plus I've heard surprising murmurs about Del Toro's Crimson Peak. Perhaps bogus buzz, but it strikes me as cool to imagine the Three Amigos winning Oscars back-to-back-to-back.

[Sabin]

This certainly boosts the promise of earlier releases this year such as Brooklyn, Carol, Inside Out, Sicario, and perhaps even Son of Saul.

Steve Jobs, Spotlight, and apparently Truth seem to be promising. The Danish Girl and Suffragette would seem less so but perhaps could pick up traction as the season continues. So the current game would be once again holding out for unseen offerings from Oscar darlings David O. Russell (Joy), Alejandro G. Innaritu (The Revenant), Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight), and Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies).

I don't ever plan on being right about anything at this stage in the game but I'm feeling better about my hunch about Beasts of No Nation.

[Mister Tee]

Freeheld also joins this group -- it's getting some murderous reviews.

Sure hope the later season is fruitful; this first round of Fall festivals isn't yielding much.

[Mister Tee]

I think you can add I Saw the Light, the Hank Williams, bio to the list. I've seen only two reviews, but both were negative.

Absolutely correct; it was such a bust I'd blocked it from my mind.

You can add Legend (The Krays movie) and The Program, the Lance Armstrong biopic that got a pretty poor reaction in the trades late today.

The biopics are largely disappointing -- Steve Jobs and Black Mass the only two so far to get decent reviews. Maybe we'll get some fictional characters under best actor after all.

[Big Magilla]

I think you can add I Saw the Light, the Hank Williams, bio to the list. I've seen only two reviews, but both were negative.

[Mister Tee]

As I assume most have noticed, I've been posting reviews of major contenders in the Films of 2015 thread. But I've opted not to clutter the thread with reviews of movies that seem out at the start. Here, though, I'll keep track of those.

Our Brand is Crisis -- apparently a bastardization of the documentary, which turned it into a Sandra Bullock vehicle wherein Our Heroine must learn valuable life lessons. (The valuable life lesson of the documentary -- of the real-life event -- is that seeming good guys will drop their ideals for the right price.) The trade reviews were, atypically, better -- at least more tolerant -- than the online critics, many of whom trashed the movie. There's always a possibility Bullock gets in the Globe comedy slot, but the film seems out of it.

Trumbo -- lots of "why isn't this showing on HBO?" reaction. Which, in this day and age, isn't the diss it used to be, but I think, even while the cable TV series are viewed as frequently superior to Hollywood films, HBO movies are still thought of as mediocre. Cranston will presumably try a best actor campaign, but he's behind a number of candidates already, with more on the way,

Demolition -- actually got more interesting reviews than some bigger candidates -- and better than its director's two previous films -- but it's apparently irrevocably pushed till 2016, so we'll discuss it then, if at all.

About Ray -- like its companion transgender film, The Danish Girl, is seen as way too bland for its subject matter. Given its lack of star-power, it's probably dead in the water.

More if they turn up.

[Mister Tee]

Generally, more get added, but this is what was announced today.

Seems to be, even more than usual, very heavy on the biopic/non-fiction.

OPENING NIGHT
Demolition (dir. Jean-Marc Vallée)

GALAS
• Beeba Boys (dir. Deepa Mehta) – World Premiere
• The Dressmaker (dir. Jocelyn Moorhouse) – World Premiere
• Eye in the Sky (dir. Gavin Hood) – World Premiere
• Forsaken (dir. Jon Cassar) – World Premiere
• Freeheld (dir. Peter Sollett) – World Premiere
• Hyena Road (dir. Paul Gross) – World Premiere
• Lolo (dir. Julie Delpy) – World Premiere
• Legend (dir. Brian Hegeland)
• The Man Who Knew Infinity (dir. Matt Brown) – World Premiere
• The Martian (dir. Ridley Scott) – World Premiere
• The Program (dir. Stephen Frears) – World Premiere
• Remember (dir. Atom Egoyan)
• Septembers of Shiraz (dir. Wayne Blair) – World Premiere
• Stonewall (dir. Roland Emmerich) – World Premiere

SPECIAL PRESENTATIONS
• Anomalisa (dir. Duke Johnson and Charlie Kaufman)
• Beasts of No Nation (dir. Cary Fukunaga)
• Black Mass (dir. Scott Cooper)
• Brooklyn (dir. John Crowley)
• The Club (dir. Pablo Larrain)
• Colonia (dir. Florian Gallenberger) – World Premiere
• The Danish Girl (dir. Tom Hooper) – North American Premiere
• The Daughter (dir. Simon Stone) – North American Premiere
• Desierto (dir. Jonás Cuarón) – World Premiere
• Dheepan (dir. Jacques Audiard)- North American Premiere
• Families (dir. Jean-Paul Rappeneau) – World Premiere
• The Family Fang (dir. Jason Bateman) – World Premiere
• Guilty (dir. Meghna Gulzar)
• I Smile Back (dir. Adam Sulkey)
• The Idol (dir. Hany Abu-Assad) – World Premiere
• The Lady in the Van (dir. Nicholas Hytner) – World Premiere
• Len and Company (dir. Tim Godsall) – North American Premiere
• The Lobster (dir. Yorgos Lanthimos) – North American Premiere
• Louder than Bombs (dir. Joachim Trier) – North American Premiere
• Maggie’s Plan (dir. Rebecca Miller) – World Premiere
• Mountains May Depart (dir. Zhangke Jia) – North American Premiere
• Office (dir. Johnnie To)
• Parched (dir. Leena Yadav) – World Premiere
• Room (dir. Lenny Abrahamson)
• Sicario (dir. Denis Villeneuve) – North American Premiere
• Son of Saul (dir. László Nemes)
• Spotlight (dir. Tom McCarthy)
• Summertime (dir. Catherine Corsini)
• Sunset Song (dir.Terence Davis) – World Premiere
• Trumbo (dir. Jay Roach) – World Premiere
• Un plus une (dir. Claude Lelouch) – World Premiere
• Victoria (dir. Sebastian Schipper)
• Where to Invade Next (dir. Michael Moore) – World Premiere
• Youth (dir. Paolo Sorrentino)- North American Premiere