Halfway Through 2015!

[nightwingnova]

Just watched Sean Penn's The Gunman and did not find it bad at all, despite the overwhelmingly bad reviews by critics.

But that's not why I'm posting.

I don't post much and you guys may decide not to trust my judgment ever again.

But I highly recommend watching Javier Bardem's performance in this movie.

It was quite a complex and nuanced creation despite it being the kind of role that encourages scenery chewing. A great performance in my estimation.

And there is a superb performance by Ray Winstone as well.

The movie was crisply directed, had well-rounded lead characters but may bore those who expect it to be a full-fledged Hollywood action movie.

[Mister Tee]

As for your surprise in visual effects, Mister Tee, don't forget -- gulp -- the possibility of renewed enthusiasm for a galaxy far, far away...

Well, as part of that small percentage of Americans who have never been wowed by Star Wars, I'm obviously not best qualified to judge. I just wonder if the yet-another-sequel factor will work against it. Much will of course depend on how well liked the film is.

Another item I forgot to mention: for best song, what about that thing from Fast & Furious that's spent 10 weeks at the top of the charts? It's, like last year's winner, a hybrid of ballad and hip-hop, and the ballad part (along with the sentimental association of Paul Walker's death) might appeal to many voters. The question is, will association with a film not otherwise Academy-friendly hurt the song's chances? Most best song contenders seem to come from films that are at least semi-critically praised.

[The Original BJ]

Glad my long-winded post has inspired some conversation.

To chime in on the animation in Best Picture conversation, I will co-sign everything Mister Tee wrote about Up and Toy Story 3 -- by the end of the year, I had no doubt that both would be Best Picture nominees, and never felt either were really in that 9/10th spot bubble.

It's also worth looking at how close earlier Pixar efforts that resemble Inside Out seem to have come to Best Picture:

In 2008, I think we can all agree that WALL-E ran 6th or 7th, right alongside The Dark Knight.

In 2007, I bet The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, given its glamour category haul, was the 6th place vote-getter. But after that I might be tempted to say Ratatouille was next in line, given how badly Into the Wild tanked on nominations day.

2004 might have been a tougher year for The Incredibles. I think its likely that Hotel Rwanda (with its excellent precursor run), Vera Drake (with its surprising-to-me Directing and Screenplay nods) and Eternal Sunshine (with its Screenplay win) were the ones most within striking distance. But The Incredibles did have its PGA nod (in a field of five), so I doubt it was too far behind.

And in 2003, I assume, despite what was seen as a nomination morning collapse, that Cold Mountain still would have been a just-miss. I honestly have no idea how close City of God came -- those four nominations indicated obvious support, but of course it seemed WAY off the radar prior to that. I bet Finding Nemo might have still run ahead, and at the very least not far behind.

Of course, this is all speculation -- we don't KNOW how close any of these movies came -- but it seems to me that the films designated as top-quality Pixar efforts seem to land closer to the top of the "Next Five in Best Picture" than the bottom in any given year, and for the time being at least, I think Inside Out will very likely follow in their footsteps.

As for your surprise in visual effects, Mister Tee, don't forget -- gulp -- the possibility of renewed enthusiasm for a galaxy far, far away...

[Mister Tee]

Well, I'll take your point that no animated film has cracked the best picture list since the 5% rule was implemented, but right away counter that no animated film was even in the ballpark in any of those years.

As for the Up and Toy Story 3 cases, I can't accept your definitely-8th-through-10th framing. Both films got most of the nominations at which they had any shot -- film and animated feature of course, but also script, sound editing, and a music branch nod. That indicates fairly broad support.

In the particular years: for 2009, we assume the five directorial nominees were the top five, and after that I can't make any assumptions about order of finish. It's very easy for me to believe A Serious Man and The Blind Side finished 9th/10th. And I wouldn't swear that An Education -- with its wan three nods -- would have topped Up. In fact, I'd guess Up and District 9 (which blitzed through the precursors but under-performed on nominations day) were about even for 6th.

2010 is even more of a mess. I recall Damien thinking Toy Story 3 would have been nominated in a field of 5. I'm not sure I concur -- I think the existence of the animated feature category may have been a fatal handicap in that regard. But I wouldn't go the mat for that idea. Re: the overall field -- I think clearly The King's Speech/The Social Network/The Fighter were the core films in the race. True Grit's 10 nominations probably meant it ranked fairly high (despite its poor performance at the Guilds). I'm comfortable putting Winter's Bone and 127 Hours at the bottom. The other four I view as roughly even. Black Swan's directing nod, and the way it had stormed through the Guilds, causes a lot of people to view it as top five, but, in fact, it missed out on several gettable nominations (supporting actress, screenplay, sound mixing, costume design), and might have been a classic lone director in a field of five. Inception had the obvious techs, but shockingly missed editing. The Kids Are All Right did well in the glamour categories, but didn't score for directing or editing. Any of those, including Toy Story 3, might have been 5th or 6th.

And I'd suggest that Inside Out (based on reviews/reaction -- I haven't seen it yet) is a stronger candidate than either Up or Toy Story 3. It's by all accounts as emotionally overwhelming as Toy Story, without the (small) handicap of being a sequel. And its reviews at least seem stronger than those Up received. As always, we have to wait and see how the year turns out. But I can't see betting against the film now.

[FilmFan720]

It’s clear Inside Out is the year’s major triumph to date. The animated feature nomination is a given (yeah, LEGO, but that seems to have been a clear box-out by the dominant Disney/Dreamworks clique, a problem Pixar won’t face). Screenplay should come with ease, as well -- unless the past half dozen year of mediocre animation have completely soured writers on the genre. And, now that we know best picture remains at ten, I’d say we can pencil the film in there, as well.

Just to get the conversation rolling a little bit:

In putting together my mid-year nominations for Wesley's site, I was going back and forth in putting Inside Out into the BP category. It certainly is a critical and commercial smash, much in the way Up and Toy Story 3 were. But, both of those films got in under the 10 nominee rule. It feels like it should be a slam dunk nominee, but I don't feel like it will be.

My question is whether we think that an animated film can make it through on the current ballot system? I think it is safe to say that neither Up nor Toy Story 3 would have made it in a 5 nominee year (see Wall-E) and that both were probably near the bottom of their corresponding years ballots (as in coming in 8th, 9th or even 10th). Neither was a powerhouse nominee. So, do we think that either of those films got the requisite 5% they would need now? Would 9th place be good enough to hold onto a slot (10th hasn't been yet) or is there just not enough "animated films deserve a place" support in the Academy?

I'm torn, but I'm leaning towards the "no" category.

[Mister Tee]

Kudos, BJ, for putting in such effort. I find I can barely muster energy to think in award terms at this point. I generally jot developments down as they occur, but have barely made an entry so far this year.

However…with your post as jumping-off point, a few thoughts:

It’s clear Inside Out is the year’s major triumph to date. The animated feature nomination is a given (yeah, LEGO, but that seems to have been a clear box-out by the dominant Disney/Dreamworks clique, a problem Pixar won’t face). Screenplay should come with ease, as well -- unless the past half dozen year of mediocre animation have completely soured writers on the genre. And, now that we know best picture remains at ten, I’d say we can pencil the film in there, as well.

That’s the only above-the-line category nomination that feels like it would be solid no matter how the remainder of the year goes – even it turns out a 2012/2013. But, looking over the slate for the remainder of the year, I don’t see it being that kind of banner season. And there are a few entries that might, in a weaker year, over-perform. To wit:

Paul Dano. I’ve heard a number of people talking about his performance. The fact he divides time with Cusack might make it possible for him to campaign as supporting actor without totally fracturing reality. (In the sense neither role is big enough to qualify as clear leading man) Dano would probably need a push from critics, but the fact that the film is doing OK financially keeps him in the picture.

Neither you nor I were that impressed with Ex Machina, but it has some vociferous fans, and the film has (improbably) earned about $25 million (though that may have more to with the fact the film was pushed into over 1000 theatres, an advantage few indies get). In any event, the combination of critical push and decent box office give it the profile of a potential screenplay nominee. Again, dependent on a weak original screenplay field, which we haven’t seen in a while, and year-end critics’ support would help. (Parethetical: I assume Ex Machina is an original…but someone at another site pointed out it borrows rather liberally from the Bluebeard story.)

It’s funny: the trajectory you describe about Spy’s chances for a screenplay nomination track almost exactly with my interest in seeing it – as in, when it first opened, the positive reviews made me think I might go (despite not generally caring for its ilk), but the non-extaordinary audience reaction makes me doubt whether it lives up to critical hype. My instinct is that Spy is going to be completely upstaged once Trainwreck opens next month: Amy Schumer couldn’t be hotter right now, the movie seems to have strong advance word, and there’s only room for one breakout female comedy star per summer. Not that I’d predict a screenplay nod for Trainwreck, but I think the film’s going to be an attention-seeking missile.

I’m of course totally with you that Mad Max: Fury Road is miscast as major category contender, but could rack up below the line nods: both sounds, for sure, with editing, make-up and even cinematography possibilities. Going by the Alice in Wonderland precedent, Cinderella seems to me a possible winner for costume design. (Possibly I’m missing something, but I don’t see any major category contenders that strike me as likely to feature elaborate costumes) And, yeah, Far from the Madding Crowd could make the list (along with a later Mulligan release, Suffragette). I love that the costume design branch goes its own way most years.

Visual effects seems to be, per summer usual, racking up eventual losing nominees. Voters don’t go for sequels or comic book movies in the end, but the branch does like to nominate them, making Age of Ultron and Jurassic World very likely nominees. Had Tomorrowland been more liked, it might have fit the winner profile. As it is, we’ll have to wait for The Martian…or a surprise.

I really liked the Scientology film, and don’t think there are enough Hubbard-ites in the Academy to offset those who violently oppose the cult. But there’s a danger the film will feel like old news by next winter (it seems like many months ago I saw it, though it was only in April).

[anonymous1980]

I'd personally nominate Mad Max: Fury Road for Picture, Director, Actress and Adapted Screenplay. But then again I'm C-R-A-Z-Y.

[Kellens101]

If Mad Max: Fury Road gets technical nods like both sound categories or film editing, I will be pleased because it would definitely deserve those for being so technically amazing. But, any noms beyond that would not at all be deserving. I'm curious to see how far the enthusiasm gets by the end of the year when so many other films come out that will probably be much better.

[The Original BJ]

Believe it or not, the film year is nearly half over! Of course, the majority of Oscar-contending films are still a ways off, but it's worth noting that a decent chunk of films from the first half of 2014 managed nominations last year -- by my count, I noted 11 features -- and it might be worth looking at the kinds of attention these films received as we mull over which early efforts from this year might find their way to the Dolby Theatre in some way.

Last year, we had only one above-the-line entry from this period: The Grand Budapest Hotel, which many of us thought might be a possibility for a Best Picture nom, but which few anticipated would have been an across-the-board 9 category nominee. Is there a 2015 film that will repeat this success? I'd say, not quite, but the one movie I'd peg for major attention that we've already seen is Inside Out. It's gotten hugely enthusiastic reviews, had a superb opening weekend, and will likely have major legs through the summer as positive word of mouth keeps it afloat. It would have to be considered a contender for all of the nominations top-flight Pixar movies typically get: Animated Feature for sure, Original Screenplay, perhaps Original Score and one or both of the Sound categories, and, assuming we still have more than 5 nominees, Best Picture. The interesting wrinkle here is that this will be the first year with TWO Pixar films in contention, and depending on how well The Good Dinosaur is received, one wonders how that competition from the same studio will affect the race.

I'm not sure I see anything else making much of an impact in the major categories. Ex Machina has its champions, but for a sci-fi movie that wasn't a huge hit, I bet Visual Effects (a category which itself isn't always the kindest to non-blockbusters) is its best hope, if it even gets that. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl has its fans, but it seems pretty teen-centric for Oscar, and being an adaptation, it wouldn't be able to compete in the category most favorable to indie dramedies, Original Screenplay. I wondered if Spy might Bridesmaids its way into the Original Screenplay field -- some of those reviews were very praise-worthy -- but it doesn't seem to be the level of HUGE hit it would need to be to make that happen for something so silly. And I think Clouds of Sils Maria is just way too art-house for major attention.

In 2014, had a fairly decent haul of early arrivals in the specialty categories, though often those are harder to spot in advance. Last year, for example, 3 of the Documentary Feature nominees had appeared by this point (Finding Vivian Maier, Last Days in Vietnam, and Virunga), but I don't recall any of them having much buzz by summer. There is one Documentary candidate that HAS made a fairly decent splash this year, though, and that's Going Clear, the Scientology doc. The HBO airing really put it in the cultural conversation -- a TON of people from my real life were discussing it in the weeks following -- and director Alex Gibney is a past winner. Of course, there are many Scientologists in Hollywood who would clearly be disinclined to even see a film like this, much less vote for it, but I doubt they have enough power in the Documentary branch to blackball this film based on that factor alone.

Foreign Language Film feels even more up-in-the-air -- who knows what will even be submitted -- but nothing so far has stood out like Ida, which by this point had become a decent art-house success story, and even managed to parlay that enthusiasm into a Cinematography nod too.

Last year's Animated Feature race had How to Train Your Dragon 2 by this point, and of course, this year Inside Out is a gimme. Whether or not any of the other early cartoons will contend of course depends on how the year pans out, but I bet more than likely the remainder of the field is still sight-unseen.

Of course, none of us could have imagined that The LEGO Movie WOULDN'T be an Animated Feature nominee last year, though it still managed to pick up the crumbs of an Original Song nomination, as did Begin Again. In both cases, the nominated songs served major story points in their films, and along those lines, I think the best chance for attention this year might be "Flashlight" from Pitch Perfect 2, which gets the big climactic production number. (It certainly helps that this sequel was also a big hit.) And of course, given this category's tendencies, it's certainly possible there's a nominee lurking somewhere in a film no one is thinking about.

In the design categories, Maleficent picked up a stray Costume Design nomination last year, and I'd have to say that this year has essentially a direct correlative, another live-action rendition of a Disney fairy tale: Cinderella. I think Sandy Powell's clothes are a virtual certainty for citation, and though Production Design is typically a more competitive category, I'd rate that category a decent possibility as well.

I would also rank Far From the Madding Crowd as a very possible Costume Design nominee -- it doesn't seem acclaimed enough to break past the "been there/done that" factor in the major categories, but the costumers have often singled out a good-looking period piece when no one else does, and I imagine this could be one of those this year.

Summer blockbusters tend to pop up in the below-the-line categories, though last year they were limited to just Visual Effects, with the latest Captain America and X-Men installments showing up there. I assume Avengers: Uge of Ultron will repeat in this category -- the one its predecessor scored in as well. And the sheer plethora of dino effects -- plus the gargantuan grosses -- make Jurassic World a very strong Visual Effects contender as well, though my instinct would be that it won't be seen as special enough to accumulate much more than that.

Mad Max: Fury Road, though, IS seen as a pretty high-class blockbuster, and I imagine it could do pretty decently down-ballot. Both Sound Mixing and Sound Editing seem hugely likely. The Makeup & Hairstyling branch can be impossible to predict but this would at least have to be considered. The effects leaned on practical rather than CGI, but I'd still assume Visual Effects is a solid possibility. And, depending on how high enthusiasm runs, it could find its way into Film Editing (like The Bourne Ultimatum, The Matrix, or Speed) or even Cinematography (like Skyfall, The Dark Night, or going further back, Terminator 2). I've gone on record as thinking that above-the-line attention will be hard to come by for Mad Max -- and I stand by that opinion for now -- but I do think high levels of appreciation for summer action fare tend to translate into multiple tech nods, and that's where I think the film will fare best.

I agree with Mister Tee that the Sound Mixing in Love & Mercy is very notable, particularly in the way it isolated so many disparate elements of famed Beach Boys' tracks to document their creation. Music-themed films have often received attention in this category, though it's worth noting that traditionally these tend to be films that also get more wide-spread nominations -- of course, Bird, which excelled in this area in much the same way Love & Mercy does, did manage to pull off a token nod just for this achievement.

I'm sure I've forgotten something, so chime in with omissions, disagreements, objections, further thoughts, etc.