Vegas odds

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rob9802
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Re: Vegas odds

Post by rob9802 »

FIvethirtyeight.com uses a more complicated system than Vegas. They put a lot of stock in the other award ceremonies, many of which have yet to happen, but here is their preliminary predictions. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fiv ... he-oscars/
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Bog
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Re: Vegas odds

Post by Bog »

Keep in mind Vegas, while yes "predicting" the winner...is even more in the game of equalizing where the money comes. Liability is the name of the game for them. However, the Oscars, as far as awards betting goes, are historically where most of the winners are known so far prior to the ceremony it eliminates a ton of liability.

The Grammys, Emmys, and especially Globes offer such opportunities similar to Daft Punk going off as 40/1 odds for Album of the year (yet seeming obvious they'd hammer Macklemore and his 2/5)...or Mozart and Bernal shutting down the Tambor freight train. And what would even be the Oscar equivalent of Spader in Boston Legal! defeating Gandolfini for Sopranos final season?

This does fall under the umbrella of us here on a site like this being an incredibly "exclusive" club and our "knowing" these results as well...different from 99.98% of the viewership on Oscar night...we all "know" Eddie Redmayne is about 140,000/1 odds but Vegas lists him as 14/1 because money will come in there for a variety of reasons. Mister Tee's party sounds pretty Oscar-savvy so he may not see this as much...but the pools at our party (consisting solely of me that spends more than 1 single Sunday a year even having an Oscar thought) max out at about 10 correct answers and that's if the winners are in your face types or if I give hints like please don't pick Bullock for Gravity...I promise Blanchett can't lose from that movie you didn't see that you think can't be as good as Gravity. Every actor of the 20 will likely get a check mark each and every year by at least one contestant.
rob9802
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Re: Vegas odds

Post by rob9802 »

Yeah my regular co-host had to bail last minute and I had to use my backup, who had to call in from his cell. It wasn't pretty. But he's quite knowledgeable and the discussion was very good I thought. Anyway, here's what I found while looking through the Nov.-Dec. release schedule (in order of potential IMO):
Long Halftime Walk - Ang Le directed, starring Kristin Stewart and Vin Diesel (about soldiers). Based on a book of the same name. If they do this right, this has legs.
Brad Pitt-Marion Cotillard WWII movie. Strange that so little is known about this and it doesn't even have a title, but it's got the right actors and plot to be something to keep on your radar.
The Founder - McDonald’s founder bio starring Michael Keaton. Depending on how they present him, this may fall flat like "Steve Jobs," but this is something to keep an eye on.
The Girl on the Train - Mystery/thriller starring Emily Blunt. Another movie based on a book. My co-host likened it to "Gone Girl" in terms of potential, but is worried that the frumpy protagonist was miscast by using the scorching hot Blunt.
The Great Wall - Matt Damon. I couldn't really find much about this one yet, but it caught my eye. It is based on the mysteries surrounding the construction of the Great Wall of China.
Book of Henry - Crime movie starring Naomi Watts and Sarah Silverman.
Sleepless Night - Jamie Foxx...this may just be a run-of-the-mill thriller, or it could be something more. Hard to tell at this point.
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Big Magilla
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Re: Vegas odds

Post by Big Magilla »

I listened to part of your podcast, but the background echo got the best of me around the 13 minute mark even though I wanted to hear what you had to say about next November and December's releases. When I last looked at the list in late November/early December of last year there wasn't anything that impressed me.
rob9802
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Vegas odds

Post by rob9802 »

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars
Of the six major categories, Leo is the heaviest favorite, as a $1,200 bet is needed just to win $100.
Brie Larson is a sizable favorite at 1/3.
I was a little surprised to see Inarritu listed as the favorite at director, and Sly as the favorite for Supporting Actor.
Rooney Mara is slightly under even money to win supporting actress, as is Spotlight for best picture.

Vegas is usually pretty accurate with these (I won my Oscar pool last year by picking chalk). My gut tells me to pick McCarthy and Rylance, but my brain says stick to chalk. What are your thoughts?

Also, new podcast up tonight! (sorry, couldn't help myself. :D ) http://www.blogtalkradio.com/movieboobs ... -forecasts
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