The 88th Oscar Nominations

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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

Post by Sabin »

This year, Idris Elba, Helen Mirren, and Michael Shannon each got Golden Globe and SAG nominations that failed to translate. Same thing last year with Jake Gyllenhaal and Jennifer Aniston. In 2013, it was Tom Hanks, Emma Thompson, and Daniel Bruhl. In 2012, it was John Hawkes, Marion Cotillard, Helen Mirren, and Nicole Kidman.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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Mister Tee wrote: Our month-ago reaction to the SAG nominations -- that they were crazy/non-representative -- turned out correct: by my count, only 13 of their 20 showed up here, which might be a new low, and a mere 2 of the 5 ensemble contenders made the best picture list.
True.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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CalWilliams wrote
Despite the category fraud, I think Jennifer Jason Leigh could be the final beneficiary in her category, since I assume both Vikander and Mara will split votes given the lack of enthusiasm for their respective films; Winslet is not going to win a second for Steve Jobs, and McAdams is not a winning role whatsoever.
How does that make sense? The Hateful Eight had even less enthusiasm than Carol or The Danish Girl. If anything but your logic then Rachel McAdams should be poised to win.

Jennifer Jason Leigh's best hope is that SAG voters simply didn't see The Hateful Eight in time to vote for her. Or that she picks up a last minute win at the Baftas or the Critic's Choice. She had an incredible year but Alicia Vikander picked up most of those "body of work" nominations, and even she didn't do as well as she could have because of enthusiasm for Kristen Stewart's Cloud of Sils Maria performance.

Jennifer Jason Leigh isn't out of the running but until the SAG winners are announced right now I think Rooney Mara is the likeliest winner. She's a previous nominee in a huge role from film that was fairly liked. Clearly, the Academy doesn't care about category fraud and we need to stop thinking they do.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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FilmFan720 wrote:
Actually, at least in the states, Creed isn't considered horribly "light." It got a lot of positive reviews, Ryan Coogler is considered a great up-and-comer, and the movie was talked about in many ways as one of the smarter studio films of the year. I wouldn't discount this with "Mirror Has Two Faces" syndrome.
Oh ok. It's another movie that NOW I have to see. But, I mean, light or not light (and unlike The Mirror Has Two Faces), it hasn't been nominated in any other category - though I know that even this isn't necessarily an impossible obstacle. I'm sure that part of the press (and of the web) will root for a Stallone win - but I'm not sure that the Academy will be influenced in this case.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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flipp525 wrote:
Sonic Youth wrote:
Aceisgreat wrote:McAdams in, but Keaton out.
I'm actually fine with that, though neither deserved it.
Keaton certainly did way more to deserve it than McAdams. A total waste of a nomination.
McAdams had nothing to do (with the exception of one crucial scene), but between her, Ruffalo and Keaton she was the most natural. Keaton had more to do, and he was awful. If anyone deserved a nom, it was Liev Schreiber.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

Post by CalWilliam »

It's paradoxical how Ang Lee had to announce the nominees a decade after Brokeback Mountain lost the big prize, as well as learning how Carol got snubbed from the top categories. As far as I'm concerned, these are the less appropriate nominations in years.

My only highlights are that Spotlight and Room are well positioned, at least; the lead actress slate is one of the greatest in Oscar history, I dare say. Forget Jennifer Lawrence. And Mark Rylance's potential victory should finally happen with that competition. Is the Academy serious about Stallone? Bale for that? Keaton was left out, indeed. This indicates how they really liked giving Redmayne that Oscar.

Despite the category fraud, I think Jennifer Jason Leigh could be the final beneficiary in her category, since I assume both Vikander and Mara will split votes given the lack of enthusiasm for their respective films; Winslet is not going to win a second for Steve Jobs, and McAdams is not a winning role whatsoever.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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ITALIANO wrote:
FilmFan720 wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:As for Best Supporting Actor, it has an obvious favorite, but could surprise, too.
The interesting thing here is that Stallone may be a favorite, but he cannot win another award before the Oscars. So we will go in not knowing how strong a favorite he is. If Mark Rylance can win both the SAG and the BAFTA, we could have an interesting race.
Yes, well, I actually meant Rylance (whose movie is liked enough to be up for Best Picture). I'm not sure that Sylvester Stallone is so admired after all, and his movie (while probably not as bad as, say, The Mirror Has Two Faces), is obviously on the "light" side. But of course the Globe and the fact that he's been such a big star can't be ignored. To be honest, if he hadn't won before, I'd say that Christian Bale COULD be the surprise winner here. Which basically means - Rylance IS the favorite, but not an absolute one.
Actually, at least in the states, Creed isn't considered horribly "light." It got a lot of positive reviews, Ryan Coogler is considered a great up-and-comer, and the movie was talked about in many ways as one of the smarter studio films of the year. I wouldn't discount this with "Mirror Has Two Faces" syndrome.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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Sonic Youth wrote:
Aceisgreat wrote:McAdams in, but Keaton out.
I'm actually fine with that, though neither deserved it.
Keaton certainly did way more to deserve it than McAdams. A total waste of a nomination.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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Aceisgreat wrote:McAdams in, but Keaton out.
I'm actually fine with that, though neither deserved it.
John Williams up for his laziest score ever.
I dare anyone to hum a theme from that score that wasn't written for a previous Star Wars film.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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FilmFan720 wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:As for Best Supporting Actor, it has an obvious favorite, but could surprise, too.
The interesting thing here is that Stallone may be a favorite, but he cannot win another award before the Oscars. So we will go in not knowing how strong a favorite he is. If Mark Rylance can win both the SAG and the BAFTA, we could have an interesting race.
Yes, well, I actually meant Rylance (whose movie is liked enough to be up for Best Picture). I'm not sure that Sylvester Stallone is so admired after all, and his movie (while probably not as bad as, say, The Mirror Has Two Faces), is obviously on the "light" side. But of course the Globe and the fact that he's been such a big star can't be ignored. To be honest, if he hadn't won before, I'd say that Christian Bale COULD be the surprise winner here. Which basically means - Rylance IS the favorite, but not an absolute one.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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FilmFan720 wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:As for Best Supporting Actor, it has an obvious favorite, but could surprise, too.
The interesting thing here is that Stallone may be a favorite, but he cannot win another award before the Oscars. So we will go in not knowing how strong a favorite he is. If Mark Rylance can win both the SAG and the BAFTA, we could have an interesting race.
He can -- most likely WILL -- win the Broadcasters, if that stil counts.

Something I missed first time through: DiCaprio continues an impressive streak of bringing along often unexpected supporting nomineess in tandem with his best actor nods -- Alan Alda, Djimon Hounsou, Jonah Hill, now Tom Hardy.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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Mister Tee wrote:My favorite "I called it" of the day: Sicario for musical score. After hating Johansson's nominated work last year, I'm glad to see him here for much more interesting work. On that category in general: Desplat's omission means the perennials can't ALWAYS count on a mention...unless of course your name is John Williams. How's that category going to go, anyway? Is the fix in for Morricone -- or is Hateful Eight's very light showing (with Tarantino missing a weak category) a bad sign? Might they decide it's time to give Thomnas Newman his gold watch?
I thought Morricone's score for The Hateful Eight was masterful and very memorable. In fact, that and JJL are the two best things about the film.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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ITALIANO wrote:As for Best Supporting Actor, it has an obvious favorite, but could surprise, too.
The interesting thing here is that Stallone may be a favorite, but he cannot win another award before the Oscars. So we will go in not knowing how strong a favorite he is. If Mark Rylance can win both the SAG and the BAFTA, we could have an interesting race.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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(I spend half an hour typing reactions, and by the time I post, the thread's closed. Here's my copy/paste)

So, i went 1 for 2 with my deal breakers; consider me half-broken.

I presume a lot of people will reference Far from Heaven when talking about the Carol omissions, but I'm thinking the best analogy is The Talented Mr. Ripley, another Weinstein/Highsmith effort with some gay content. Neither film could be said to have been ignored completely -- in fact, they got similar screenwriting/costuming/acting/score nods, totaling 5 for Ripley and a not-inconsiderable 6 here for Carol -- but both were sadly omitted in the main categories. Seeing how there were only 8 best picture nominees, what do we think was Carol's most likely failure -- to get enough overall votes, or to fall short of 5 percent in first place? I'm thinking there ought to have been enough passionate supporters to get the 5 percent; my bet would be on insufficient down ballot backup.

The only redeeming aspect is that Room, my other most-loved film, did get its big nominations, film and director (though Tremblay couldn't make the cut). The Abrahamson nod from the directors indicates the auteurist-leaning niche of the directors' branch lives on -- you can usually count on them to turn up something more interesting than the Directors' Guild.

With 12 nominations -- way at the upper end of expectation -- The Revenant has to be one of the more impressive follow-up showings from any Oscar-winning director. I still wonder if the film is going to wear well -- if its great showing here is a matter of timing, coming while it's in its first blush of box office success -- but maybe a lot of people just feel better about the film than I do. Oh, and the film joins Titanic and Gravity as recent efforts getting double-digit nods while missing screenplay. (If it had got screenplay, you'd have to have viewed it as the prohibitive front-runner.)

So, the two behemoths are big action-oriented movies whose appeal eludes me, but the two thinking man's efforts -- Spotlight and The Big Short -- got all they needed to be firmly in the race (each could have got another acting nod, but they were iffy prospects). Spotlight, in fact, seems about where we'd have put it prior to the series of early-season snubs.

Ridley Scott being left out by the directors confirms my view that that branch is very chary with nominations for frivolous movies (though I of course picked the wrong triviality to omit). It also likely eliminates it from the best picture race, despite an otherwise pretty impressive nomination haul.

Loneliest best picture contender: Brooklyn, with only two other nods. It was apparently An Education II all along.

Our month-ago reaction to the SAG nominations -- that they were crazy/non-representative -- turned out correct: by my count, only 13 of their 20 showed up here, which might be a new low, and a mere 2 of the 5 ensemble contenders made the best picture list.

With all the confusion of the season, the top acting categories turned out mostly predictable -- I got 9 of 10, failing only because of hoping for Redmayne to be ousted; I assume lots of others went perfect.

Whatever doubt there was for DiCaprio should be gone. His film's nomination haul, plus serious competition (Cranston & Fassbender) seeing their films fall short in other categories, paves the way.

Room's best picture placement probably pushes Larson closer to her deserved win, as well, though I remain concerned about her film's grosses. Very happy to see Rampling on the list -- vets like her and Jennifer Jason Leigh deserve at least one invite to the big show.

So, those if us who said SAG's supporting group might be largely replaced turned out right: only Bale and Rylance repeat. I can't say I feel voters made the best of their wide range of choices, but, unless Stallone runs away with it on sentiment, it could be a good race.

And I have no idea how to handicap supporting actress. The only best film representative is Rachel McAdams; could that help her to beat the field? Kim Basinger and Tilda Swinton both won with that advantage, over more highly-praised competitors from less-loved films.

Extremely happy Helen Mirren's Trumbo performance didn't make it.

Sorry Steve Jobs was left out of screenplay (first Globe winner since, I believe, About Schmidt not to make the transfer). But very glad for Room and Carol making the list.

It feels like many of the tech categories are going to be fierce battles between Mad Max and Revenant.

Biggest snub of the day (apart from Carol): the See You Again song. Apparently they didn't want to be associated with something so declasse as Furious 7. The obvious solution was to go with 50 Shades of Gray instead.

My favorite "I called it" of the day: Sicario for musical score. After hating Johansson's nominated work last year, I'm glad to see him here for much more interesting work. On that category in general: Desplat's omission means the perennials can't ALWAYS count on a mention...unless of course your name is John Williams. How's that category going to go, anyway? Is the fix in for Morricone -- or is Hateful Eight's very light showing (with Tarantino missing a weak category) a bad sign? Might they decide it's time to give Thomnas Newman his gold watch?
Last edited by Mister Tee on Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The 88th Oscar Nominations

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HarryGoldfarb wrote:- Tom Hardy is the lucky charm. His films have a total of 22 nods leading the pack. Guess he should have been a more obvious exepected nominee than he was.
Domnhall Gleeson also has 22 nods for his films, although that was 4 films (what a year!)
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