The Original BJ wrote:Sabin wrote:Best Actor is going to be very wide-open, also considering that the three critics groups to weigh in the past three days (Paul Dano, Michael Keaton, and Matt Damon) are almost certainly not in the hunt for a win. I haven't seen The Danish Girl yet but the question in my mind is does it matter if we think Eddie Redmayne's performance is miscalculated if Academy voters fall for it?
I think a Redmayne nomination is possible, but I maintain my prior opinion that a back-to-back win for such a middlingly received movie seems pretty unlikely. I think the "it's time" sentiment for DiCaprio, a similar accumulation of career points/industry respect for Depp, the acclaim for Fassbender's performance/film, and the popularity of Damon's vehicle make all of them stronger candidates in my eyes. (I also won't write off Damon as a potential winner -- he's never won an acting award, his first win was almost two decades ago, his movie was a big hit, and if it's poised to have much stronger legs than many of us thought on its release, I don't see why he couldn't compete.) But, yeah, I agree that this is a wide-open race.
We kind of have a situation where no one should win best actor (and everyone should win best actress).
Mark Harris wrote the other day that he wished at least one person would say he thought DiCaprio should win the Oscar because he gave the best performance of the year.