Animated Feature Shortlist

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anonymous1980
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Re: Animated Feature Shortlist

Post by anonymous1980 »

My prediction:

Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
The Tale of Princess Kaguya


I think LEGO, Dragon and Big Hero 6 (now at 91%, FYI) are locks. The other two spots are completely up in the air: Song of the Sea, Princess Kaguya, Boxtrolls and Book of Life will be duking it out. Personally I think Boxtrolls > Book of Life but that's just me. The win? I'd give it to either LEGO or Big Hero 6 (both of which I absolutely loved).
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Re: Animated Feature Shortlist

Post by OscarGuy »

I'm not sure you could say Dragon 2's reception from critics wasn't a knockout. I mean, 92% fresh is still pretty impressive. But that's an argument for a different day.

As for the Monsters comparison, I know where you're coming from, but I think it was more of a rebuke of the Disney sequel machine than of the film itself. Pixar, up until Cars 2, had successfully made sequels and Toy Story 3 proved they could still do it. Cars 2, and Monsters University, proved that Pixar wasn't the infallible company it used to be. MU's notices were decidedly weak. 78% on Rotten Tomatoes, 65 on MetaCritic and 7.4 on IMDb. The film was not well received (although, personally, I found it vastly superior to the original which I never understood why it was ranked among the company's best). Its failure to get nominated may also have had something to do with Disney's push to focus entirely on Frozen last year. I think ultimately Disney muted its campaign for the less highly received Pixar joint in an effort to capitalize on its Frozen momentum.

I'm not sold on Boxtrolls' chances, BJ. I just suggested that Laika's past performance was an indication that it can even compete in years when it's not always in the direct line of nomination (I honestly don't think ParaNorman was a nomination guarantee either). I always want to mention that Laika also did contract work on Oscar nominee Corpse Bride, which was also Oscar nominated, though that was definitely not a direct Laika production.
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Re: Animated Feature Shortlist

Post by The Original BJ »

Having just now seen Big Hero 6, I think it's safe to say it's getting nominated in this category, alongside The LEGO Movie, which has been a sure-fire nominee since the day it opened.

I don't think How to Train Your Dragon 2 is invincible -- sequel fatigue cost Monsters University a nomination I thought it would get last year -- but I still feel like it's a pretty decent bet for one of the five spots. As OscarGuy says, it wasn't a critical or commercial knockout, but it still rated pretty solidly in both departments. (I definitely wouldn't call its grosses tepid.) If Kung Fu Panda 2 and Despicable Me 2 can get nominations, How to Train Your Dragon 2 seems likely enough among the big ticket entries to score here, and the more high-profile candidates still do have better prospects overall in this category than the niche items.

The Boxtrolls, though, seems a bit more precarious to me. I don't really see how the argument that all of Laika's animated features so far have made the list really means much -- we're talking all of TWO movies, both of which (IMO) were substantially superior at a basic plot level to this one. Right now, I don't think a nomination is an impossible get, but I also wouldn't be remotely surprised (or bothered) to see it left out.

I agree that the critics prizes will likely be split between The Tale of the Princess Kaguya (which I have seen) and Song of the Sea (which I haven't). Whether or not both artier efforts can make Oscar's list seems uncertain, but not impossible. We've had years where one foreign effort boxed out another (with The Secret of Kells snagging a spot many thought would go to Ponyo), but also ones where multiple such films have made the cut (Wind Rises/Ernest & Celestine or Cat in Paris/Chico & Rita, both in years where more high-profile options were available).

Haven't seen The Book of Life, though that one doesn't seem to have excited all that much enthusiasm anywhere.

And, of course, with this category there's always the chance one of the totally random entries few have heard of surprises us on nominations morning.
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Re: Animated Feature Shortlist

Post by OscarGuy »

Tepid audience response, I'll give you, but How to Train Your Dragon 2 had better reviews than the first film. On MetaCritic, it stands at 76 v. 74 for the original. As a frame of reference, Big Hero 6 is currently at 75. Lego Movie is 82. Princess Kaguya is 89.

Rotten Tomatoes has Big Hero 6 at 83% currently, Lego Movie is 96%, How to Train Your Dragon 2 is 92% (compared to 98% for the original), Princess Kaguya is 100% currently.

Boxtrolls is 74% on RT (63 on MetaCritic), Book of Life is 81% (67 on MetaCritic).

As for IMDb, it's 8.1 for Dragon 2, 8.2 for the original. Big Hero 6 is presently at 8.1, Kaguya is 8.2, Lego Movie is 7.9, Boxtrolls is 7.2, Book of Life is 7.6 and Song of the Sea is 8.1.

Keep in mind that Big Hero 6 and Song of the Sea are likely to change a lot with IMDb and RT since they are either newly released or not-yet-released. However, by these numbers, I contend that How to Train Your Dragon 2 is easily one of the most popular animated films of the year. I'll admit that it was not a box office juggernaut as we all expected, but $176 million isn't a small total.

I also caution against betting that Dragon won't make it. Even in its weakest peforming years, DreamWorks managed double nominations for Puss in Boots and Kung Fu Panda 2. In animation, it's all about the studio first and quality second. There are two voting blocks that make up the largest part of Academy membership (and animation in general): Disney/Pixar and DreamWorks. As a result, these two groups will rally around their own efforts, then whatever space they have left in the race they give to newcomers, rivals and sometimes genuine greats.

I know you guys don't listen to me much on anything anymore, but trust me on this one category.
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Re: Animated Feature Shortlist

Post by Mister Tee »

Song of the Sea has got wonderful reviews, and should compete with Princess Kaguya for the main critics' prizes, which frequently lead to nominations if not wins. Big Hero 6 and The LEGO Movie have been about equally well-reviewed, and based on tracking they may well fall into the same gross-bracket. The former being 1) Disney and 2) fresher may carry the day at the Oscars, but it's early to tell.

I wouldn't bet on either The Boxtrolls or How to...Dragon 2, based on tepid critical/commercial response, but I've never been able to gauge how the undercard nominees are chosen by this branch.
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Re: Animated Feature Shortlist

Post by OscarGuy »

There are only three sure things: Big Hero 6, How to Train Your Dragon 2 and The Lego Movie. Disney doesn't have a Pixar entry, so they can focus entirely on that Big Hero 6. The Lego Movie was such a hit that it being left off would be a shock and DreamWorks has no other real entries than How to Train Your Dragon 2.

I'd say the next most likely for inclusion are The Tale of the Princess Kaguya and The Boxtrolls. If Boxtrolls doesn't make it, it would be the first time ever that Laika hasn't had one of their films nominated for Best Animated Feature. Boxtrolls wasn't the slam-dunk with critics the past efforts have been, which is why I don't rate its chances higher. Princess Kaguya is being handled by GKids, which has had a surprising number of nominations in the last decade, more so than Fox Animation has had and their entry this year, The Book of Life, was not as well received by critics as they had hoped and the audiences weren't as excited about it as one would have expected.
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Re: Animated Feature Shortlist

Post by FilmFan720 »

From what I understand, Big Hero 6 is an almost sure thing too. I would slot it above Book of Life or How to Train Your Dragon 2.
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Re: Animated Feature Shortlist

Post by jack »

I'd say The Book of Life, How to Train Your Dragon 2 and The Lego Movie will be the nominees if there are three. If five, then The Boxtrolls and them a random one none of us could have predicted.
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Animated Feature Shortlist

Post by ksrymy »

http://www.oscars.org/news/20-animated- ... oscar-race

“Big Hero 6”
“The Book of Life”
“The Boxtrolls”
“Cheatin’”
“Giovanni’s Island”
“Henry & Me”
“The Hero of Color City”
“How to Train Your Dragon 2”
“Jack and the Cuckoo-Clock Heart”
“Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return”
“The Lego Movie”
“Minuscule – Valley of the Lost Ants”
“Mr. Peabody & Sherman”
“Penguins of Madagascar”
“The Pirate Fairy”
“Planes: Fire & Rescue”
“Rio 2”
“Rocks in My Pockets”
“Song of the Sea”
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya”
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