DGA Winner

For the films of 2014
CalWilliam
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Re: DGA Winner

Postby CalWilliam » Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:20 pm

Some quick thoughts.

Considering split, I just can't see a three year in a row split Picture/Director. It didn't even happen in the 30's. Film editing doesn't matter. Birdman is not that kind of movie which needs that category. It can win without it. Who cares about Ordinary people anymore?
It's indeed an exciting race, but my feeling is there's only two possibilities: Birdman wins Picture and Director, what would make sense, or Boyhood and Linklater win, no matter the guilds, and it's a very likable scenario.
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Re: DGA Winner

Postby OscarGuy » Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:18 am

I did some comparison, historical analyses and other stuff in my article on the DGA win that I only got to this morning:

http://www.cinemasight.com/precursor-67 ... ards-2014/

I talk about the Guild Triple Crown, the Editing, the splits...there are going to be precedents shattered this year no matter what happens.
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Re: DGA Winner

Postby Okri » Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:04 am

WTF is wrong with Sasha Stone?

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Re: DGA Winner

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:46 am

I never thought a failure to be nominated for editing really meant anything, but as with Brokeback Mountain and The Social Network, I was lulled into thinking the critical favorite was unstoppable at the Oscars. Brokeback Mountain got all the way to the opening of the last envelope before I was shocked out of my complacency. Hooper's win over Fincher at the DGA should have been the writing on the wall for the end of The Social Network's seeming invincibility, but still I held out hope. This time I really don't know what to think.

What is different is that this can't easily be called an old guard vs. young whippersnappers smiting as the other two inevitably were. If it were, The Imitation Game would have won the DGA. Birdman generally appeals to the same people Boyhood does, although to most critics Boyhood is the superior film. It seems more like the guilds are giving their top prize to the year's second most critically acclaimed film just to show that they refuse to be told by the critics and the bloggers what they should do. Will Oscar follow suit?

While all the indicators now are that Birdman will win, I still hope to see Boyhood take the top prize. A win for Linklater for Best Director seems less likely, but another split also suddenly seems possible. In either case we will have one for the record books - our third split in a row or the first film to win without an editing nod in thirty-four years.

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Re: DGA Winner

Postby anonymous1980 » Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:49 am

I think Boyhood can split if it wins BAFTA but whatever wins, it's gonna break a lot of precedents: If there's another split (Boyhood/Inarittu), it's gonna be the third year of splits in a row and that's never happened before. If Birdman wins Picture, it's gonna be the first time a non-nominee for Editing to win since Ordinary People AND it's gonna only the second time a Best Musical/Comedy Picture Golden Globe loser to win Best Picture, the only other one being Annie Hall. It will be also weird if Boyhood somehow prevails both Picture and Director.

Oh and if Inarittu wins, it will be the third year in a row that a non-Caucasian guy wins Best Director.

My dream scenario is Boyhood wins Picture, Inarittu wins Director and Wes Anderson wins Original Screenplay. All three guys take home Oscars. Everyone is happy.

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Re: DGA Winner

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:38 am

What's also a little strange to me is how The Imitation Game just seems to be sitting around all season, getting virtually all of the expected nominations across the board, but barely putting up a fight anywhere. I assumed after seeing the movie that Cumberbatch would be in the thick of the Best Actor race -- based on the character/performance and his next-great-thespian career buzz -- but he's been nothing more than an also-ran. And if any movie seemed like it COULD be The King's Speech alternative to Boyhood in Best Picture, Imitation Game is it. And we'll see how the WGA turns out, but what had seemed to me like a very likely Adapted Screenplay winner (before Whiplash's re-categorization and American Sniper's box office blow-up) could very well come up short there too.

Of course, I'm not REMOTELY complaining about any of this, just pointing out how peculiar it is to have Boyhood/Birdman/Grand Budapest ALL doing so well, when you could easily imagine a situation where scattered support for those movies allowed something like Imitation Game to emerge as the consensus vanilla candidate.

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Re: DGA Winner

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:25 am

The Original BJ wrote:Whoa. This is virtually a repeat of The Social Network/The King's Speech, with Boyhood dominating the critics' prizes and winning Picture/Director at the Globes (with, in this case, Birdman even losing the Globe in its own category), only to have Birdman storm through PGA/DGA/SAG. (Amusingly, eligibility factors prevented BOTH King's Speech and Birdman from claiming the fourth major Guild.)

What's fascinating is that the competition between Fincher and Hooper's films seemed to represent a race between two very different factions of Academy voters, whereas Boyhood and Birdman seem like they'd appeal to largely the same group of people.

Not an exact fit, but, as I see it, this is more like if The Social Network had been upended at the Guilds by Black Swan. I could see (and dread) The King's Speech as the dreary alternative -- the way Dances with Wolves had been to Goodfellas, or Forrest Gump to Pulp Fiction. I just don't see how Birdman fits into that category -- to me, it's the kind of film, like No Country for Old Men, that only wins when the backward wing doesn't have a decent candidate. (Of course, Boyhood -- or Grand Budapest -- are equally hard to envision as best picture winners)

I hope BAFTA goes another way tonight, just to liven things up.

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Re: DGA Winner

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:04 am

Whoa. This is virtually a repeat of The Social Network/The King's Speech, with Boyhood dominating the critics' prizes and winning Picture/Director at the Globes (with, in this case, Birdman even losing the Globe in its own category), only to have Birdman storm through PGA/DGA/SAG. (Amusingly, eligibility factors prevented BOTH King's Speech and Birdman from claiming the fourth major Guild.)

What's fascinating is that the competition between Fincher and Hooper's films seemed to represent a race between two very different factions of Academy voters, whereas Boyhood and Birdman seem like they'd appeal to largely the same group of people. (For what it's worth, they're my two favorites of the year, so I'm far more content with this matchup than Social Network/King's Speech.) I hadn't expected Birdman to pull ahead like this -- it seemed like Boyhood had all but claimed a stake on the auteurist votes -- and I'm still not sure if there's a real race here, or if it'll now just be Birdman all the way come Oscar time.

It'll also be interesting to see what reverberations these awards have on OTHER Oscar categories. Personally, if there's one category where I think Birdman is running farther ahead of the nominees than any other, it's Best Actor, so an outcome where the movie won Picture & Director but NOT a prize for Michael Keaton seems nonsensical to me. But Redmayne repeating his SAG win still seems very possible.

And I have NO idea what to predict in the original screenplay category -- Boyhood, Birdman, AND Grand Budapest all seem like candidates that could win due to some combination of enthusiasm and/or consolation prize, though how this prize might shake out vis a vis Picture & Director seems like anybody's guess.

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Re: DGA Winner

Postby nightwingnova » Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:41 am

Wow. And we thought Redmayne was building up speed.

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DGA Winner

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:37 am

Inarritu wins for Birdman.

I'd never have expected this film to sweep the three guilds. It's now got to be a prohibitive favorite to win a best picture race that, till a few weeks ago, seemed unusually open. And I like the film -- it's not The King's Speech -- but I hate that once again Hollywood seems to feel the need to coalesce around one and only one film.

Bright side: this has to elevate Keaton's chances over Redmayne.


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