Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Had Keaton won, I'd have still thought Redmayne a threat for the Oscar, and with Redmayne's win, I still think Keaton's a threat.

I thought the day I saw Birdman that it had to be a strong contender for SAG Ensemble, so I don't view this prize as good or bad for the film's further chances this season. (I did, however, decide that the Ensemble category is the one part of the SAG awards I truly endorse, since it allows a way to honor something the Academy doesn't.)

There had to be a ton of blind voting on Julianne -- her movie's only earned half a million in ticket sales, and they didn't send out 60,000 screeners. I understand the impulse, but it's another reason why these TV-round precursors have become an echo chamber.

Some year or other, we're going to get decent supporting races again. But clearly not in 2014.

I was just watching Carrie Fisher's Wishful Drinking the other night, and she looks to have aged significantly in the few years since she shot it. I had the feeling she was up on stage to keep her mother on a bit of a leash -- Reynolds was capable of landing a joke, but she also seemed to lose the plot at certain points, and I think Carrie was assigned to cut her off at the say-when point.

Why are the awards for television so much more unpredictable/spontaneous than those for film? Same at the Globes.

The Redmayne win was a nice surprise in that it will maintain the Best Actor suspense a little longer.

The only category I thought might pull a surprise was Supporting Actor. It occurred to me as the camera panned the nominees, wouldn't it be fun if Ethan Hawke were to win over J.K. Simmons? Not likely, but one can dream.

The show itself moved along briskly, coming in at exactly two hours. Carrie Fisher looked really old for 58. Debbie Reynolds looked great for 82 but seemed a bit befuddled: "My favorite movie is Singin' in the Rain. My Favorite movie is The Unsinkable Molly Brown"

Pretty predictable. BIRDMAN winning Ensemble helps its Best Picture chances, but how to explain Keaton's loss. Lead Actor seems like the only category not set in stone. Some folks are expecting a Bradley Cooper win at the Oscars, but I find that pretty far fetched. I love a subtle performance, but Cooper just left me cold. Then again, so did the whole movie and clearly I am in the minority on that opinion. I guess THE IMITATION GAME's chance really are dead. If it cannot score with the actors, I do not think even Harvey's darkest of magic can pull of an Oscar win. At this point it might even lost Adapted Screenplay to AMERICAN SNIPER or WHIPLASH.

Anyone have theories regarding Eddie Redmayne's chances at the Oscars? Keaton's my sentimental favorite. Would be sad to see him not win.

Certainly, his loss takes some of the momentum out of Birdman's win at the PGA, confuses the playing field as to where the voters are leaning.

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