Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Only major movie surprise was Budapest losing screenplay, which it has virtually swept everywhere else, to Birdman and then beating it for best comedy.

You guys are right. The movie awards season has become so intensely analyzed and vetted that it has developed strong trends, leaving little surprise by the time we get to the Oscars.

First thing I just have to appreciate right off the bat -- this was an evening where Richard Linklater, Alejandro González Iñárritu, and Wes Anderson all got to give speeches. Pretty great, and a nice way to spread the wealth around.

As others said in the predictions thread, Boyhood didn't really seem like a Globe bingo (the same way No Country for Old Men wasn't), so these prizes have to make it the frontrunner by a decent margin. Of course, it could still be a frontrunner the way The Social Network was, and get toppled later on, but it's hard to see where that competition would come from. The Imitation Game, despite seeming like something the HFPA would go for, had a really bad night -- I thought Actor and Score were well within reach, and a Best Picture upset didn't seem out of the question. And Selma, after failing with the Guilds, could have used the life support jolt a Best Picture win here might have provided, but didn't get that either. The other movies that had great nights tonight -- Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel -- just don't seem like upset potential to me, because if a critical favorite is going to take the Oscar, I imagine Boyhood will have that market pretty well cornered.

At this point, it's hard to imagine Julianne Moore and J.K. Simmons losing. Ditto Patricia Arquette -- I'm just going to move on from doubting her unchallenged frontrunner status and celebrate the recognition she's receiving for her performance.

Best Actor, of course, will remain competitive, presumably until Oscar night. I'd love for Cumberbatch to take the SAG, just to throw an even bigger wrench into that category.

Interestingly, Amy Adams is in much the same position she was last year -- winning Best Actress in a Comedy, after being denied a SAG spot, and trying to fight her way into the Oscar field. The difference is, American Hustle was a top Best Picture candidate, and Big Eyes is a big flop. I don't think the scales will tip in her favor this year, though I'd still easily prefer her to Jones and Aniston.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 was the night's biggest WTF shock. I assumed it would be a LEGO/Big Hero face-off.

Mister Tee wrote:It might help the discussion if this was put under the correct year.

Fixed.

I don't know. This year also featured a Poehler/Fey joke that made Chastain look in horrified delight.

It might help the discussion if this was put under the correct year.

Typical show - the hams (Ricky Gervais, Jack Black, etc.) hogged the spotlight, rushing late presenters/winners.

Most of the surprises were in the TV awards.

Biggest film surprises - How to Train Your Dragon 2 over The Lego Movie, Amy Adams over Emily Blunt

Less surprising but still surprising to me - The Grand Budapest Hotel over Birdman, Eddie Redmayne over Benedict Cumberbatch

For the discussion, which I'm surprised hasn't started yet.