The Original BJ wrote:Okri wrote:The Original BJ wrote:Once again, it's worth pointing out how lockstep critics have been this year. ONLY Picture and Cinematography differed between NY and National Society -- and in both those categories, the NY winner was the close runner-up here.
Arquette certainly cements her front-runner status -- one I hope she keeps -- though I guess I still worry about the potential for an Amy Ryan-type situation, where the televised prizes change things up dramatically (acknowledging the difference between a performance in a Best Pic frontrunner and a sole nominee.)
Intriguingly, that was the year that the Golden Globes really weren't televised. But I can imagine Arquette going the way of Virginia Madsen.
Virginia Madsen hadn't crossed my mind, but that's actually a much better comparison -- she snagged prizes from LA, NY, and NSFC (as Arquette did) in the obvious critical favorite of the year, only to stumble down the line. The performance strikes me as similar to Arquette's too -- lovely work, but not exactly the kind of role you imagine running away with the Oscar when you see it.
To be fair, Arquette could also become Melissa Leo, another performance that didn't seem like it would be a juggernaut given some strong potential competition, but which sailed all the way through awards season. Time will tell.
Further remember that, in both cases, the Broadcasters (first televised show of the year) DID go with the critical juggernaut -- Madsen & Ryan both won. It was the Globes, picking Portman and Blanchett, who changed the conversation (and then SAG further muddled things with Blanchett ('04) and Dee).
Those late twists seem to have become a thing of the past in the most recent years, possibly because there's that echo chamber of 20 local critics' groups, almost all of whom have chimed in on Arquette, the way they do on most supporting choices and make them feel inevitable (Melissa Leo being the most flagrant case, but Christopher Plummer, Anne Hathaway, Jared Leto and Christian Bale, as well).
Again I emphasize: I'll be happy if Arquette wins the Oscar. But I'll enjoy it alot more if her win isn't fore-ordained by peer pressure.