Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

He's in my revised predictions posting on CinemaSight in the next few days.

Finally saw NIGHTCRAWLER yesterday. Would love to see a surprise supporting nom for Riz Ahmed in place of Duvall for THE JUDGE or even Ruffalo for FOXCATCHER. Got several good mentions in the reviews but nobody is mentioning him for a supporting nom. I was far more taken with Ahmed's performance than Russo's. His character developed during the film and provided humor.

Sabin wrote:Yeah, she's not winning. 2009 is one of the only years I can think of where there were even fewer options for Best Actress nominees than this one. Heck, Meryl Streep was seen as a possible spoiler for Julie & Julia. If it's at all possible that people can look at The Blind Side and say "Sandra Bullock is due to win an Academy Award", then this year they may as well send out a memo saying, "The Academy has decided not to waste anybody's time and money this year. We're giving the Academy Award to Julianne Moore. Our apologies to the seven other women who had leading roles in American films this year -- and to Julianne Moore for taking us so fucking long."

Ha! Absolutely brilliant.

Yeah, she's not winning. 2009 is one of the only years I can think of where there were even fewer options for Best Actress nominees than this one. Heck, Meryl Streep was seen as a possible spoiler for Julie & Julia. If it's at all possible that people can look at The Blind Side and say "Sandra Bullock is due to win an Academy Award", then this year they may as well send out a memo saying, "The Academy has decided not to waste anybody's time and money this year. We're giving the Academy Award to Julianne Moore. Our apologies to the seven other women who had leading roles in American films this year -- and to Julianne Moore for taking us so fucking long."

Three reasons why Jennifer Aniston isn't in the same position Sandra Bullock was five years ago.

1. Aniston's a TV star with no major films to speak of. Sandra Bullock was a movie star with a number of hits behind her.

2. Bullock's winning film was a box-office smash, but Cake? Does anyone even want a piece?

3. Bullock had weak competition with none of the other nominees considered overdue a la Julianne Moore this year.

flipp525 wrote:This seems very Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side-ish.

Six Reasons Jennifer Aniston Could Win the Oscar for ‘Cake’

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/six-r ... 201382078/

Let's just not go there, universe. Let's just NOT.

This seems very Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side-ish.

Six Reasons Jennifer Aniston Could Win the Oscar for ‘Cake’

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/six-r ... 201382078/

I'm holding out hope that Ralph Fiennes will be nominated for The Grand Budapest Hotel.

I think those who love Selma really love it, but I don't think there are enough of them to put it in the winner's circle.

That is still higher than Birdman at 89% and The Grand Budapest Hotel at 88%, but it is lower than Boyhood at 100%.

Selma is 92% on Metacritic. - 11 reviews, 5 at 100%, 1 at 91%, 2 at 90%, 2 at 75% and 1 at 60%. That's six respectable and five ecstatic - the respectables are winning.

Big Magilla wrote:Selma is getting respectable reviews, not ecstatic ones. I think it will be nominated, but won't win.

On Rotten Tomatoes, Selma is 100% fresh and has 9/10 rating. By comparison Boyhood is 99% and 9.3, Birdman is 93% and 8.5, and The Grand Budapest Hotel is 92% and 8.4. Now, Selma has only 21 reviews, while Boyhood has 213, Birdman has 172, and The Grand Budapest Hotel has 228. Based on this, you can argue that Selma so far has only limited reviews; but, you cannot argue that it has respectable, but not ecstatic, reviews.

Big Magilla wrote:Best Picture

Selma is getting respectable reviews, not ecstatic ones. I think it will be nominated, but won't win.

I see the five locks as Boyhood, Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything with Into the Woods and Selma heading the second tier. After that it all gets murky with Unbroken and Whiplash most likely heading the third tier. My outside picks are A Most Wanted Man, Calvary and Ida, any one of which would probably be a shock.

You know what is getting ecstatic reviews and I think people are foolishly leaving off their predictions? MR. TURNER.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mr_turner/

Take a look at some of the quotes RottenTomatoes highlights. These are not just the kind of polite reviews a good British period piece might receive. With critics saying stuff like "Mike Leigh continues to make other directors look simpleminded" and "Writing about Mr. Turner a few weeks after seeing it, I feel a craving to be again immersed in its world," I would say this movie could do quite well on nominations morning.

I predict:
Picture
Director
Screenplay
Actor
Cinematography
Costume
Set
Score

Of all those categories, I admit actor is the shakiest. Not because I doubt Spall gives an incredible performance, but simply due to the strength of the category.

Don't worry, it's not going to happen. The Academy sheep will vote for the heavily promoted front-runners as usual.

Big Magilla wrote:

ITALIANO wrote:

Big Magilla wrote: Personally I hope they all cancel each other out

How can they?

We've had this discussion before. It happens all the time. The majority likes A, B and C equally, votes for them equally, while a small minority likes D well enough for him or her to receive one vote more than any of the big three. That's all it takes.

But can't Americans be rational? Can't they try at least? And here it's even crazier than usual, because we aren't even talking about five nominees (where it's still absurd, but at least it's only five), but about the completely open field of performances by actors, and about three performances which don't have anything in common except that they are perceived as possible nominees (which in theory should be a sign of strength, not weakness)... I mean, in my next life I want to be American. It seems to be so much easier.