Re: New York Film Critics winners
Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:38 pm
I think Boyhood might very well dominate the critics' groups -- there just aren't too many candidates that feel hip enough and mainstream enough to fit the usual profile of these winners. (Birdman would be another one; I saw Selma yesterday, and though I thought it was quite good, it's way more traditional, and I wouldn't expect it to triumph anywhere but maybe NBR among pre-televised ceremonies.)
Mike Leigh's acting candidates have had trouble getting much farther than critics' groups (both Sally Hawkins and Lesley Manville got tripped up despite critical cheering), but there seems to be at least one wide-open Best Actor spot (perhaps more, if one of the presumed frontrunners is more vulnerable than we think). The bloggers have basically been ignoring Spall as a legitimate nomination threat, but I've thought since Cannes he'd be in the conversation, and this at least ensures that.
In response to Mister Tee's big post, I meant to write a mini-analysis of the contenders on the fringe of the Best Actress race, and my hunch was that critics' groups might rally around Marion Cotillard's two performances given the thin field. (I actually would have pegged her a very likely candidate for LA, and I still think she'd be a safe way to bet there, given the foreign trend in Best Actress.) I haven't yet seen Two Days, One Night, though it seems like a stretch that a Dardenne film would produce a mainstream awards candidate...but are we underestimating her as a potential for The Immigrant? It was a period drama with some critical cache, but there's nothing inaccessible about it -- it's not going to offend older voters -- and Cotillard has a solid enough central role. Might the thinness of the field cause voters to look back to one of the few remotely viable candidates from the spring?
Speaking of the Immigrant, I wouldn't write it off in the Cinematography category either. It's a very handsome-looking movie, literally from that first foggy shot of the Statue of Liberty.
I think J.K. Simmons is just going to be a steamroll to the inevitable.
I do hope the critics groups go all over the place with Supporting Actress -- there are a ton of strong candidates in that field, though Arquette is, of course, plenty worthy.
I agree with what Mister Tee wrote vis a vis The LEGO Movie. The NY critics have nearly always gone with a foreign/arty option when available in this category, so this is a boost.
Mike Leigh's acting candidates have had trouble getting much farther than critics' groups (both Sally Hawkins and Lesley Manville got tripped up despite critical cheering), but there seems to be at least one wide-open Best Actor spot (perhaps more, if one of the presumed frontrunners is more vulnerable than we think). The bloggers have basically been ignoring Spall as a legitimate nomination threat, but I've thought since Cannes he'd be in the conversation, and this at least ensures that.
In response to Mister Tee's big post, I meant to write a mini-analysis of the contenders on the fringe of the Best Actress race, and my hunch was that critics' groups might rally around Marion Cotillard's two performances given the thin field. (I actually would have pegged her a very likely candidate for LA, and I still think she'd be a safe way to bet there, given the foreign trend in Best Actress.) I haven't yet seen Two Days, One Night, though it seems like a stretch that a Dardenne film would produce a mainstream awards candidate...but are we underestimating her as a potential for The Immigrant? It was a period drama with some critical cache, but there's nothing inaccessible about it -- it's not going to offend older voters -- and Cotillard has a solid enough central role. Might the thinness of the field cause voters to look back to one of the few remotely viable candidates from the spring?
Speaking of the Immigrant, I wouldn't write it off in the Cinematography category either. It's a very handsome-looking movie, literally from that first foggy shot of the Statue of Liberty.
I think J.K. Simmons is just going to be a steamroll to the inevitable.
I do hope the critics groups go all over the place with Supporting Actress -- there are a ton of strong candidates in that field, though Arquette is, of course, plenty worthy.
I agree with what Mister Tee wrote vis a vis The LEGO Movie. The NY critics have nearly always gone with a foreign/arty option when available in this category, so this is a boost.