First 2014 Predicitons

For the films of 2014
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:43 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Sabin, I'm referring to reviews for Interstellar, which I suggested was not doing well with critics and had been slotted late in the review cycle to keep bad reviews from reaching consensus. I've heard that the reviews so far have been middling, which suggests the film isn't being nearly as well received as Nolan's predecessors. I was never referring to box office performance or Oscar capabilities. I was referring to the potential for it not being the critically acclaimed eighteenth-coming of Christopher Nolan.


The Variety review of Interstellar today was ecstatic. The Hollywood Reporter was more mixed but greatly admired the movie's scope and ambition. Even if it doesn't get Gravity-level raves across the board, those trade notices suggest it will definitely have some fans among critics.

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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:34 pm

Sabin, I'm referring to reviews for Interstellar, which I suggested was not doing well with critics and had been slotted late in the review cycle to keep bad reviews from reaching consensus. I've heard that the reviews so far have been middling, which suggests the film isn't being nearly as well received as Nolan's predecessors. I was never referring to box office performance or Oscar capabilities. I was referring to the potential for it not being the critically acclaimed eighteenth-coming of Christopher Nolan.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby FilmFan720 » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:03 pm

Must we have this conversation every year? The expansion of Best Picture has certainly opened the door for a lot of films that would be off the radar otherwise, but it still has not altered the TYPE of film that gets a Best Picture nomination. Guardians of the Galaxy, like Harry Potter and Star Trek and The Avengers and The Dark Knight and the like have never been the types of films that garner Best Picture nominations, and having more nominations won't magically change that either (especially in what is forming to be a strong year of contenders).

When the Academy seemingly reaches beyond the normal scope, it does so because it has pedigree to change its mind. Guardians of the Galaxy doesn't have Peter Jackson, James Cameron or Pixar behind it to make it a comfortable choice. If Skyfall, which had an Oscar-winning director, couldn't make a decent charge at a nomination, then GotG really doesn't have a chance.

As for the late 70s/early 80s output, we are beyond the time when box office success and Best Picture went hand in hand. The two are fairly exclusive these days, and GotG can be happy with a couple of tech nominations.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby MovieWes » Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:13 pm

Sabin wrote:Wes, did you mean it's an IP that's new to film or a brand new IP? Because Guardians of the Galaxy has been kicking around the Marvel universe for some time in one iteration or another since the 70s.


I meant as in new to film.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Sabin » Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:52 pm

OscarGuy wrote
I'm also glad to say that I was right about the fate of Interstellar.

How do you mean? It hasn't come out yet.

FilmFan720 wrote
MovieWes wrote
One thing that it does have working in its favor that none of those other films had is that it is the first film in a brand new film IP. Skyfall was the 23rd film in a 50-year old franchise, The Avengers was basically a mash-up of several already established movie franchises, The Dark Knight Rises was the third film in a trilogy AND the 7th film in a 23-year old franchise, Star Trek was the 11th film in an almost 43-year old franchise that encompasses both TV and film, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 was the 8th film in its franchise.

OK, What does IP mean?!?!?!

IP means Intellectual Property.

Wes, did you mean it's an IP that's new to film or a brand new IP? Because Guardians of the Galaxy has been kicking around the Marvel universe for some time in one iteration or another since the 70s. When it was conceived, it was night and day different. They were the Avengers of the year 3000 and saved the day in their own futuristic sandbox. It wasn't until last decade that it began to resemble what it is today which is a kinda Firefly, bumblers saving the day in outer space. Marvel literally had no idea what to do with these characters or how they fit into a larger whole until very recently. There was a Guardians of the Galaxy book out last decade where Groot could speak.

I think Guardians of the Galaxy is being underrated a teense. It has a reasonable chance at a Golden Globe nomination and the Writer's Guild of America is probably going to nominate it for Best Adapted Screenplay. It's going to get an Eddie nomination and it's going to show up on every below the line precursor for Production Design, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects. Do I think it's going to end up nominated for Best Picture? I'll say no, but I'd certainly like it to happen. By the end of the day, it's looking at five or six Academy Award nominations which will only further the argument about comic book movies making it into the cut...which is possibly very good news for The Avengers 2.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby FilmFan720 » Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:32 pm

MovieWes wrote:
The Original BJ wrote:
MovieWes wrote:Could it be a film that most of us are grossly underestimating?


In my opinion, not remotely. I view Guardians of the Galaxy as no more of an Oscar candidate than Skyfall, The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Star Trek, and the final Harry Potter film, all movies that were talked about in some circles as potential players (mostly along the lines of "why can't this be a Best Picture nominee?"), but to me seemed completely out of Oscar's orbit above the line, even in an expanded field.


One thing that it does have working in its favor that none of those other films had is that it is the first film in a brand new film IP. Skyfall was the 23rd film in a 50-year old franchise, The Avengers was basically a mash-up of several already established movie franchises, The Dark Knight Rises was the third film in a trilogy AND the 7th film in a 23-year old franchise, Star Trek was the 11th film in an almost 43-year old franchise that encompasses both TV and film, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 was the 8th film in its franchise.


OK, What does IP mean?!?!?!
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Greg » Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:22 pm

MovieWes wrote:Also, since Interstellar is getting mixed reviews and now looks likely to be left out of the Best Picture line-up, it very well could end up being the best-reviewed big blockbuster film of the year.


Hasn't The Lego Movie received reviews at least as good as Guardians Of the Galaxies?

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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby MovieWes » Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:59 pm

The Original BJ wrote:
MovieWes wrote:Could it be a film that most of us are grossly underestimating?


In my opinion, not remotely. I view Guardians of the Galaxy as no more of an Oscar candidate than Skyfall, The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Star Trek, and the final Harry Potter film, all movies that were talked about in some circles as potential players (mostly along the lines of "why can't this be a Best Picture nominee?"), but to me seemed completely out of Oscar's orbit above the line, even in an expanded field.


One thing that it does have working in its favor that none of those other films had is that it is the first film in a brand new film IP. Skyfall was the 23rd film in a 50-year old franchise, The Avengers was basically a mash-up of several already established movie franchises, The Dark Knight Rises was the third film in a trilogy AND the 7th film in a 23-year old franchise, Star Trek was the 11th film in an almost 43-year old franchise that encompasses both TV and film, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 was the 8th film in its franchise.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:32 pm

MovieWes wrote:Could it be a film that most of us are grossly underestimating?


In my opinion, not remotely. I view Guardians of the Galaxy as no more of an Oscar candidate than Skyfall, The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Star Trek, and the final Harry Potter film, all movies that were talked about in some circles as potential players (mostly along the lines of "why can't this be a Best Picture nominee?"), but to me seemed completely out of Oscar's orbit above the line, even in an expanded field.

Obviously, we have no idea what Interstellar will be -- though some strong notices have been popping up today, and you have to assume box office will be big -- but if Oscar voters are looking for a populist sci-fi hit to honor, I think it's far more likely they coalesce around that one.

It's also worth pointing out that, even below the line, you could make a pretty good case that Marvel's cinematic universe films have consistently underperformed with Oscar. Not one has made it in Production Design, Film Editing, or (most surprisingly) Sound Mixing, categories in which big commercial spectacles have often appeared. And except for the first Iron Man, none have gotten any further than Visual Effects, and plenty have blanked completely (Captain America couldn't get Oscar darling Alan Menken a seemingly obvious Song nomination). (I think Nathaniel Rogers pointed out that Oscar is actually much more fond of the far worse Transformers series than Marvel's output.)

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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:17 pm

The Hunger Games could have fallen into that exact same description two years ago, but has not managed a single nomination. I'd also say that Mockingjay, Part 1 will likely be well reviewed and be a blockbuster as well, so there would be competition. It would be the third in the series, though, so a nomination would be out of line.

I'm also glad to say that I was right about the fate of Interstellar.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby MovieWes » Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:01 pm

One question that I do think is worth asking is what should we make of Guardians of the Galaxy at this point? It is (currently) the highest grossing film of 2014 and seems to hearken back to the early days of blockbuster cinema more than any film in recent memory. If this were the mid-70s to early 80s, I would say that it would be a major contender for a Best Picture nomination without a doubt (it fits in very nicely with 70s/80s Best Picture nominees like Jaws, Star Wars, Raiders of the Lost Ark, or E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial). The film, while part of the massive Marvel Cinematic Universe franchise, feels like a completely fresh, new IP, thanks mostly to the comic book being rather obscure. Its obscurity may work in its favor. No one really expected it to be the hit that it was, so its success can be attributed in large part to its quality instead of a built-in fan base that most major blockbusters thrive on. Some may say that being a superhero film may hold it back; after all, no superhero film has ever been nominated for Best Picture. However, it doesn't really feel at all like a superhero film. It feels more like a space opera adventure film -- like a cross between Star Wars and Raiders of the Lost Ark. It seems like a likely Golden Globe nominee for Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy) and I absolutely would not be surprised to see it pick up a PGA nomination like so many other recent blockbuster films. I'd also like to point out that if it were an animated Pixar film, most of us would already be predicting it for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. Also, since Interstellar is getting mixed reviews and now looks likely to be left out of the Best Picture line-up, it very well could end up being the best-reviewed big blockbuster film of the year.

Could it be a film that most of us are grossly underestimating?
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby FilmFan720 » Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:23 pm

MovieWes wrote:Will The Gambler be eligible this year? The trailer I just saw says it comes out in 2015.


It is on Paramount's FYC website, so I'm guessing it is at least getting a qualifying run.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby MovieWes » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:00 am

Will The Gambler be eligible this year? The trailer I just saw says it comes out in 2015.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Sabin » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:49 am

If My Big Fat Greek Wedding can be pushed for Best Original Screenplay, then they'll just target the most available category.

NOTE:
The Gambler trailer just dropped and maybe we should be considering John Goodman.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby MovieWes » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:18 am

The Original BJ wrote:Do we think Whiplash is going to be considered an Original or Adapted script? The marketing is making no secret of the fact that a short version preceded the feature version -- which led to Adapted classifications for Sling Blade and District 9 -- although I believe the feature script was written first. Seems like a scenario that could be finagled.

I also think Whiplash is getting in Best Picture. It seems to be inspiring a level of ecstatic passion in people that usually leads to a nomination.


From what I understand, the short film was made in order to secure funding for the feature.

From Wikipedia:

Originally conceived in the form of an 85-page screenplay, Damien Chazelle's Whiplash came to prominence after being featured in the 2012 Black List that includes the top motion picture screenplays not yet produced. When producers started showing interest, Chazelle took 15 pages from his original screenplay and adapted it into a short film starring Johnny Simmons in the role of the drummer and J. K. Simmons (no relation) in the role of the teacher. The 18-minute short film went on to much acclaim after screening at the 2013 Sundance Film Festival, which ultimately attracted investors to sign on and produce the complete version of the script.


So I really don't know how they would classify this. This is an interesting scenario because it doesn't really have any precedent that I know of.
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