First 2014 Predicitons

[Sabin]

I saw that a while ago. That was my first clue that this film was going to be a mess. On the one hand, how many screenwriters does it honestly take to make that story work. And in that same hand, I thought that Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin writing the same movie was nuts, but William Nicholson is an English playwright, Richard LaGravanese is Julia Roberts' script doctor, and the Coen Brothers are the Coen Brothers! How do they all write one movie? Now, I know that Nicholson and LaGravanese are more than what I just said, especially Nicholson who would seem to be the likeliest candidate to have written this film sight-unseen.

I find it so hard to believe we're ever going to see William Nicholson and Richard LaGravanese and Joel & Ethan Coen sharing an Oscar nomination for one film.

[The Original BJ]

I'm sure many of you know this, but I didn't realize it until a saw an FYC ad for Unbroken, so I thought I'd at least highlight it...

The screenplay for Unbroken is credited to William Nicholson, Richard LaGravenese...and Joel and Ethan Coen.

Not sure what that means in terms of quality or Oscar, but I know I just got a lot more curious to see this movie than I was a day ago.

[Sabin]

Selma premiered at AFI Fest. In theory, you could request an embargo for a short while after something like that, but Unbroken didn't premiere at a festival. It screened somewhere in Sydney, Australia and Universal has requested no reviews until 11/30.

[Big Magilla]

I don't know when the Unbroken premiere was planned, but I'm pretty sure it was a one-off, not the start of a continuous run where word would certainly slip out. I had understood that the film wasn't completed as late as last week. Maybe they're still tweaking it. Apparently the critic-less audience loved it, so who knows.

[Greg]

Greg wrote
Isn't an embargo on reviews often seen as a sign of trouble for the movie?

Not in the case of Unbroken. It's not coming out for a while now so they want to keep all the buzz contained so it doesn't end up peaking before it comes out.

Although, it can't be coming out any later than Selma, which had no embargo.

[Sabin]

Greg wrote
Isn't an embargo on reviews often seen as a sign of trouble for the movie?

Not in the case of Unbroken. It's not coming out for a while now so they want to keep all the buzz contained so it doesn't end up peaking before it comes out. Besides, it's not really an embargo on reviews because it's not really an official press screening as I understand it. Anybody could buy a ticket to go see it. It was more like Angelina Jolie Appreciation Day.

On the other hand, Unbroken sure does look like a movie that's going to play better for audiences than critics so they absolutely have a reason to keep even middling responses from being heard.

[flipp525]

Based on what I'm hearing from initial reports, Unbroken is being described as "boring" and "way too long."

I also heard someone describe Jessica Chastain's performance in Miss Julie as "one of the best female performances in the last decade."

Grains of salt, of course.

[Big Magilla]

Isn't an embargo on reviews often seen as a sign of trouble for the movie?

Usually, but not always. I guess we'll just have to wait and see on this one.

[Greg]

Isn't an embargo on reviews often seen as a sign of trouble for the movie?

[Sabin]

According to Jeffrey Wells, Universal has an embargo on all reviews. Even tweets are slim pickings.

Mister Tee wrote
A candidate I might note (though of course I haven't seen the film): Alec Baldwin in Still Alice. Most of the film's heat is of course on Julianne Moore, but I'm hearing murmurs on Kristen Stewart and the screenplay. If people start liking the film enough, they might highlight Baldwin as a strong element.

I've thought about Alec Baldwin but what holds me back isn't his checkered very recent past but rather the modest nature of Still Alice. It doesn't seem to be much of a contender outside of Best Actress for Julianne Moore. And yet currently I have it down for nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress for Kristen Stewart. I haven't heard much about Alec Baldwin's performance but it would seem to be shadowed beyond those two.

[Big Magilla]

It's well into Tuesday in Sydney where the Oscar bloggers' most anticipated film, Unbroken, had its world premiere Monday night. Although there's been some coverage of Angelina Jolie's appearance at the premiere, there's been nothing so far on the film itself. Universal has embargoed U.S. critics from reviewing the film until 11/30 or 12/1, but are Australian critics under the same embargo?

[Mister Tee]

I'm trying to throw together a post about the race in full, but apropos the point Sabin originally raised, and on which many of you have chimed in:

The oddest thing about the categories this year is how lopsided they are. Supporting actor is, as you're saying, astonishingly thin -- Hawke and Ruffalo should be on-the-bubble, at best, but with so little opposition they seem almost unstoppable. Meantime, the female side of the ledger is so lush, I could come up with ten credible candidates for most years. In the leading category, it's the opposite: there are enough strong contenders to fill out the best actress slate without embarrassment, but just barely (if Still Alice and Wild weren't around, pickings'd be slim indeed). On the other hand, as BJ pointed out last week, best actor is flush with candidates of all shapes and sizes. (It's NIghtcrawler's bad luck that its two long-shot candidates each fall in the more difficult to crack group) The imbalance even extends to the screenplay categories, with many more candidates currently vying for a spot under original than for adaptation. (If I were the filmmakers behind Whiplash, Selma or Foxcatcher -- films with legitimate arguments for being considered adapted -- I'd move heaven and earth to get myself classified that way)

I don't know who's going to eventually fill out that supporting actor slate. Duvall would be a lazy choice -- decreed an early contender by bloggers, somehow staying in the conversation despite mediocre reviews and sluggish box-office. But Matt Damon in Invictus wasn't a whole lot different, and he got the nomination over critics' candidates like Peter Capaldi and Christian McKay. Watch the Broadcasters for this one: It's precisely the sort of offering at which they're likely to bite. If they pass, Duvall's probably unlikely; but if they list him, he could survive till the Oscars.

A candidate I might note (though of course I haven't seen the film): Alec Baldwin in Still Alice. Most of the film's heat is of course on Julianne Moore, but I'm hearing murmurs on Kristen Stewart and the screenplay. If people start liking the film enough, they might highlight Baldwin as a strong element.

Oh, and BJ's 100% right: Channing Tatum in support is fraud incarnate. Not that I'd want either, but Carell in support is closer to believable than Tatum; Tatum has more screen time than anyone else, by a substantial margin.

[dws1982]

Having just listened to Billy Boyd's "The Last Goodbye" from The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, I can think of no scenario in which the Academy does not nominate it for Best Original Song.

Not sure how you can make such a bold statement about this category, of all categories--it routinely omits some of the obvious contenders and includes some random, WTF? nominees that no one has ever heard of.

It might actually be the best song from the entire franchise, including both nominated songs from The Lord of the Rings.

Not too high of a bar, but I'm glad it's better than those Annie Lennox and Enya songs.

[Greg]

Perhaps this site should nickname Best Supporting Actor "The Original BJ Meltdown Category."

[Sabin]

Edited.