First 2014 Predicitons

For the films of 2014
Reza
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by Reza »

flipp525 wrote:anonymous1980, no acting nominee over 65? There are always at least a couple. Your Best Actress lineup, in particular, is skewing quite young.
Dame Maggie Smith in My Old Lady? :)
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by flipp525 »

anonymous1980, no acting nominee over 65? There are always at least a couple. Your Best Actress lineup, in particular, is skewing quite young.

Are we thinking this is finally Amy Adams' year? I feel like if she doesn't get it this year, she never will.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by anonymous1980 »

My first attempt at predicting. Let's see how much of these turn out right:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Big Eyes
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
A Most Violent Year
Unbroken


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Chadwick Boseman, Get On Up
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Jessica Chastain, Eleanor Rigby
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Logan Lerman, Fury
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods
Emma Stone, Birdman

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Alejandro Gonzáles Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Wes Anderson and Hugh Guiness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner
J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Richard LaGravenese and William Nicholson, Unbroken
Nick Hornby, Wild

I'll look back and check if I'm laughably wrong or shockingly right with any of these. :lol:
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by Greg »

Here is the trailer for The Imitation Game:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5CjKEFb-sM

So, with this and The Theory Of Everything, this years Oscars could end up nicknamed The Battle Of The British Geniuses.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by Greg »

Tyldun is at least efficient. Wikipedia states that The Imitation Game was shot in less than two months.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by Mister Tee »

I'd add one other factor that gives the film juice: Tyldum isn't (based on Headhunters) the sort of director to just go through the standard biopic/social issue paces with the material; he's likely to bring some edge to the material. Just as 12 Years a Slave wouldn't have been as strong a movie had Ed Zwick been at the helm, Imitation Game ought to be better than it would have been with Ron Howard directing -- enabling it to possibly get not just old fart support, but maybe some hipster votes as well.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by Sabin »

I just looked at the Fall Movie Preview. The first half of the year for me was replete with victories both in terms of hangovers from last year (Under the Skin, The Only Lovers Left Alive), favorite artists delivering on their own terms (The Grand Budapest Hotel, Boyhood), and even popcorn (X-Men: Days of Future Past, Guardians of the Galaxy). Moving on. What about the rest of the year?

Knowing what I know about the movies coming out, the one that looks the most like the winner to me is The Imitation Game for the following reasons:
1) It's probably going to be "good" -- and by "good", I mean of a quality embraced by the Academy. The script was on the BlackList for ages.
2) It's The Weinsteins, and they sure look like they believe in it. William Goldenberg is cutting it and Alexandre Desplat is scoring it. I don't know everything they have this year, but it's The Weinsteins with a talking point, which I'll get to next:
3) It gives the Academy the ability to right a wrong. The story of Alan Turning gives the Academy the ability to feel progressive -- especially considering that this film is likely to be relatively sexless (gay suffering without gay pleasure).
4) It gives the Academy to feel progressive even though it's a Historical Film. It takes place during WWII! There's plenty of stakes throughout the entire film. And because it's the British who placed sentence on Turning, the Academy doesn't have to feel like its ingesting medicine. It's the fucking Brits!
5) The film is headlined by an incredibly talented actor who is hitting his stride of popularity right now who plays this "special" (brilliant math-mind that changed the course of history) and "tragic" (a persecuted closeted gay man with a terrible end to his story). Whether or not The Imitation Game is the winner (and that is what I'm guessing), Benedict Cumberbatch looks like a strong Best Actor contender and history is on the film's side in that department:
Best Picture Winners with Best Actor Winners: The Artist, The King's Speech, Gladiator, American Beauty.
Best Picture Winners with Best Actor Contenders: 12 Years a Slave, The Hurt Locker, Million Dollar Baby, A Beautiful Mind
6) The fact that nobody knows who the director is officially no longer matters. Nobody knows who Michel Hazanavicius or Tom Hooper are either.
7) If I'm right, then it's likely to get a ton of nominations. Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score, and then likely everybody below the line as well. Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, maybe even Sound Mixing. Suddenly, it has 11 nominations.

So, anyway, totally premature. The Imitation Game to me looks like the movie that combines everything that's ever been needed to win Best Picture in a script that we already know some feel is pretty good.

---

By the way, of the movies I just listed that I enjoyed from this year, I expect the a combined total of maybe five or six nominations.

Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Screenplay
Best Production Design (FINALLY!)

Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Makeup
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Effects
Best Visual Effects

Boyhood
Best Picture --- so remotely possible!
Last edited by Sabin on Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by Reza »

Big Magilla wrote:No - it was shown at several film festivals but not given a theatrical release, at least not in the U.S. It goes into limited release next week.
Anyway scratch Cotillard's name of the list. She was pretty ordinary in The Immigrant.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by Precious Doll »

I can only say that as wonderful as Tilda Swinton is in Snowpiercer and as deserving as she would be of a nomination (I need to update my 2013 selections to include her myself) her performance, and in a film like Snowpiercer, is simply not the sort of thing that the Academy would ever consider. Even in a weak year.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by Big Magilla »

No - it was shown at several film festivals but not given a theatrical release, at least not in the U.S. It goes into limited release next week.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by ksrymy »

Reza wrote:Marion Cotillard for The Immigrant?

No way!!
Didn't The Immigrant get a limited release last year?
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by Reza »

Marion Cotillard for The Immigrant?

No way!!
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by OscarGuy »

I think Anderson was very close to a nomination in Best Picture for Moonrise Kingdom. It was nominated for Best Original Screenplay and Anderson's work has been well respected for years. I think that he's been bubbling under for years and with no quirky auteurs in competition this year (Paul Thomas Anderson isn't Oscar kryptonite anymore), he could benefit. This is one of his best reviewed films ever. It may have a lower RT score, but Metacritic has it topping all of his past films. Even on IMDB, it's got a higher rating than Moonrise Kingdom, placing it in the Top 250 on IMDB. It's even outperformed all of his previous films at the box office (except when adjusted for inflation, then Royal Tenenbaums beat it).

While individually these factors might not mean much, put together, it makes for a formidable contender. Scott Rudin may be the lynchpin. Rudin was the key reason I thought Moonrise Kingdom would make it through two years ago. If there's one person besides Harvey Weinstein that has a better track record these days, it's Rudin. He's gotten 8 Best Picture nominations since 2006. The problem is he's "come close" far too many times recently. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was widely predicted, but didn't make it. Moonrise Kingdom as frequently cited, but didn't make it. Inside Llewyn Davis was on several lists, but didn't make it. Of those three instances, two of them saw a different Rudin-produced film make the cut. Unfortunately, that was Moonrise Kingdom.

Having said all that, and since I'm the only one with Grand Budapest Hotel on his list, I thought it important to defend my inclusion. I don't think it's a slam dunk nominee all things considered, but last year was a watershed year for indies making the Best Picture cut. Her, Dallas Buyers Club and Nebraska all made it through, though DBC is borderline since it had a big push from a modestly major celebrity in its starring role. I think Spike Jonze is a brilliant example of someone who's been doing interesting, critically acclaimed work for years who finally got Best Picture recognition. If Jonze can do it, I think Anderson can too. And just ask Beasts of the Southern Wild how difficult it is to hang on to the Best Picture race for several months.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by Big Magilla »

ksrymy wrote:Is Grand Budapest only being predicted by one of you because of its early release or general distaste for it?
For m, two things work against it - its early release date and Wes Anderson's track record - writing, yes; director/film, not, but if those films that look good on paper turn out to be bombs then Anderson and his film have a chance of coming back into the conversation.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Post by ksrymy »

I'm really excited at how open-ended this Actress race could be.

I can only hope Birdman succeeds, but with it based on a Raymond Carver short story, I think it will. The man is the master of the short story, and his works seem very adaptable (from what I've read of his).

Is Grand Budapest only being predicted by one of you because of its early release or general distaste for it?

Also, I think if Unbroken gets a Best Picture nod, Angelina Jolie will be nominated for Director.

Also, being a fan of Thomas Pynchon's work for years now, I'm hoping for an Inherent Vice sweep of the major categories.
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