BAFTA winners

For the films of 2013
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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Feb 21, 2014 7:06 am

The point was that it makes no sense - not the preferential ballot, not the fevered blogging on other sites in which they all try to predict the outcome beforehand with such oddities that if by happenstance they are right they can brag about their weird little prediction that came true until the next award season proves that they just got lucky. But just as foolhardy is making current predictions based on past statistics. Each year is unique, each situation is different.

At this point the wind seems to be blowing in Gravity's favor and it may well win. Then again it may not. I still think it will be a horse race to the finish line between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave with Slave ultimately triumphing.

As for my little exercise, all I was trying to do was to show that in a year where no film is an absolute favorite anything can happen. Gravity may have a few more first place votes than 12 Years a Slave or vice versa and the second or even the third highest initial vote-getter if it has enough may win after they redistribute the votes on the other ballots. In a close race between two or three films the one that places higher than the other(s) on most lists regardless of position, even if they are 8th and 9th, or 7th, 8th and 9th,will win.

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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby ITALIANO » Fri Feb 21, 2014 4:27 am

ksrymy wrote:
Greg wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:Intermediate totals
12 Years a Slave 42%
American Hustle 28%
Gravity 30%

Gravity's vote are split evenly between 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle.

Final totals
12 Years a Slave 57%
American Hustle 43%


Why would you drop out Gravity when it has more votes than American Hustle?

Yes, please answer this. This makes zero sense.



Too many things don't make sense on this board lately. Just because this year seems a bit "different" (but is it really THAT different? I'm not sure) has kind of given people the right to fully express their (very American) irrationality. I've read things in these last few days that made me speechless - I wonder which new drugs you guys are using in this period. Control yourselves, please. The level of some posts is even lower than the posts in Awards Daily - which says alot.

But at least FilmFan720's most recent comment on this thread is rational and interesting.

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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby ksrymy » Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:38 am

Greg wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:Intermediate totals
12 Years a Slave 42%
American Hustle 28%
Gravity 30%

Gravity's vote are split evenly between 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle.

Final totals
12 Years a Slave 57%
American Hustle 43%


Why would you drop out Gravity when it has more votes than American Hustle?

Yes, please answer this. This makes zero sense.
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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby ksrymy » Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:36 am

I still have no idea how Slave is going to win Costume Design. That category is all Gatsby.
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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby FilmFan720 » Thu Feb 20, 2014 10:40 pm

OscarGuy wrote:And as was showcased last year (and the last decade really), the Academy is holding to tradition far less often than they used to. So, a 12 years/gravity split may be unprecedented, but it wouldn't be that unusual. There have been few films in the last decade that have won Best Picture and totalled more than 3 or 4 awards. That tally is far more common these days than it was all through the 1980's and 1990's.


There have been several films that won on 3 or 4 awards, but none of them had another film taking a plethora of other awards:

No Country and The Departed each won with 4 wins, but both had the most awards of the evening.
The King's Speech and A Beautiful Mind each won with 4 wins, and both tied for the most awards of the evening
Crash won on only 3 awards, but tied for the most awards of the evening (in a four way tie!)
Argo won with 3 wins and Million Dollar Baby won with 4 wins, and neither of them had the most wins of the night. But, the films that out-paced them only did so by 1 (Life of Pi had 4 to Argo's 3, The Aviator had 5 to MDB's 4).

So yes, 12 Years a Slave could win with 3 awards (Picture, S. Actress, Adap. Screenplay) or 4 (add in Costume Design?). But it would still be outpaced by Gravity with at least 6 (Director, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Sound, Sound Editing, Score) or more (Editing, maybe Production Design). The last film to win Best Picture and be outpaced by more than 1? Annie Hall in 1977.
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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby Okri » Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:51 pm

The Original BJ wrote:This is not to say that I think a 12 Years/Cuarón split is out of the question -- 12 Years still has racked up a pretty consistent string of Best Picture trophies this season. But, let me ask this question: based on precedent, why should I NOT predict Gravity wins both prizes?


Based on precedent? None.

But given the different circumstances the preferential ballot and a nine-film list and the insanity of this year in general, why not engage in general what-the-fuckery. And on that note, Philomena and The Wolf of Wall Street will tie in best picture.

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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:21 pm

rolotomasi99 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:Because mass killings and glorification of the mob is a better teaching tool for young family members than an exposé of the growing evils of Nazism set to song, eh?


Remember, in the good ol' U.S.A., the racist, homophobic, sexist mass murdering criminal characters in THE GODFATHER were morally superior to the pansexual, bed-hopping, abortion-having characters in CABARET.

Only to some, only to some.

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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:25 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Because mass killings and glorification of the mob is a better teaching tool for young family members than an exposé of the growing evils of Nazism set to song, eh?


Remember, in the good ol' U.S.A., the racist, homophobic, sexist mass murdering criminal characters in THE GODFATHER were morally superior to the pansexual, bed-hopping, abortion-having characters in CABARET.
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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby Greg » Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:19 pm

The Original BJ wrote:In fact, about the only case I could really come up with where the reverse type of split occurred would be All the King's Men/A Letter to Three Wives, where clearly the darker, more cynical film snagged Best Picture while Director went to something more lightweight. And that might as well have been in a different century.


Also, Robert Rossen, the writer-director of All The King's Men, was a former Communist Party member who was blacklisted one year after All The King's Men won Best Picture.

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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby flipp525 » Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:15 pm

I thought the Barkad Abdi win was a really great moment. Clearly unexpected on his part and an endearing, honest speech. And for a non-actor, I thought his Captain Phillips work was really good. He'd be a strong candidate for a win if it weren't for Jared Leto who I still think is very much in the #1 position for Best Supporting Actor. Although, even if it's not an analogous situation, BAFTA is where things like Tilda Swinton first happened.

I also thought that Cate Blanchett devoting much of her acceptance speech to Philip Seymour Hoffman was a very good move on her part, especially considering this cooked-up, Internet-based "backlash" supposedly brewing against her with her association to Woody Allen.

But my good god, those Stephen Fry introductions are so long and (at times) overly effusive. I mean, does anyone really need to declare Uma Thurman as one of the greatest actresses of this generation? It always gets to be a bit much.
Last edited by flipp525 on Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby Greg » Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:13 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Intermediate totals
12 Years a Slave 42%
American Hustle 28%
Gravity 30%

Gravity's vote are split evenly between 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle.

Final totals
12 Years a Slave 57%
American Hustle 43%


Why would you drop out Gravity when it has more votes than American Hustle?

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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby OscarGuy » Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:44 am

And as was showcased last year (and the last decade really), the Academy is holding to tradition far less often than they used to. So, a 12 years/gravity split may be unprecedented, but it wouldn't be that unusual. There have been few films in the last decade that have won Best Picture and totalled more than 3 or 4 awards. That tally is far more common these days than it was all through the 1980's and 1990's.
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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:18 am

Except that Oscar voters don't think that way. The inclination is to give the Best Picture and Director awards to the same films. When they vote for a director other than the director of their choice for Best Picture it's because the director did something unusual - Mike Nichols with his innovative use of popular music; Bob Fosse with his distinctive presentation of the musical numbers - Alfonso Cuaron with his innovative approach to gravity or the lack thereof.

Their vote for Best Picture, whether it's the more popular entertainment like The Godfather or Argo or the surprise to some little film like Million Dollar Baby or The Hurt Locker, it's generally the film that they think will stand the test of time better in the long run. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong, but that's the way they think.

In the Heat of the Night was a box office hit but not the exciting, new type of entertainment that was Bonnie and Clyde and The Graduate, but it was also considered at the time to be the more socially conscious and important film, something that 12 Years a Slave also shares. With numerous precursors going the way of 12 Years a Slave for Best Picture/Gravity for Best Director, an Oscar win for Gravity may be popular in the moment but not necessarily in the long run at least as Oscar voters perceive it, but who knows. Anything can happen. I just think that with both the tradition of awarding Best Picture to the more socially conscious contender and the general but not always rule of endorsing precursor trends, 12 Years a Slave is still the one to beat.

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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby FilmFan720 » Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:44 am

Who said anything about teaching tools? Looking at the films, Gravityy and Godfather are both giant box office smashes that immediately became peoples "favorite film." They were popular films that were also critical favorites. 12 Years and Cabaret are dark films dealing with difficult historical periods in history in a frank way. They are highly respected films, but not films people are Immediately naming their favorite film of all time (they consider them great, maybe masterpieces,but not favorite). The 1972 split is exactly like all the others, and gives us a precedent for a Gravity/McQueen split, not the other way around.
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Re: BAFTA winners

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:18 am

Because mass killings and glorification of the mob is a better teaching tool for young family members than an exposé of the growing evils of Nazism set to song, eh?


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