Directors Guild Winners

For the films of 2013
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 13668
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Directors Guild Winners

Post by OscarGuy »

Understandable Rolo and I'm not discounting SAG. Of the three times (only three) in the last twenty years that PGA and DGA agreed but didn't match Best Picture, twice it was the SAG cast winner that won Best Picture (the third instance, Apollo 13, also won Best Cast). Those two times were Crash and Shakespeare in Love. That's only 10% of the time, which isn't an insignificant percent, but one that bears examining.

The only problem with your analysis of the last three years and what the Academy liked is that The King's Speech, The Artist and Argo all won both PGA and DGA (two of which also won SAG).

Going back to the precursors. I know Tee doesn't like them, but they are still valuable. In 2012, Argo didn't start winning precursors until the beginning of the year, but when it did start winning, it was a domino effect resulting in 14 awards, including Globe, PGA, SAG, DGA, Broadcast Critics, BAFTA and several others. As much as it was popular, it still managed to win a lot.

In 2011, The Artist crushed the competition at the critics and guild prizes, taking all of the above plus the vaunted New York Film Critics Circle award. 20 prizes it won before winning Best Picture.

In 2010, The King's Speech struggled the most of your three examples. The Social Network had utterly crushed all competitors that year. King's Speech only came away with SAG, PGA and DGA along with BAFTA (where I would have been shocked had it not won even if it didn't have a chance at Best Picture).

Looking at this data, The King's Speech is probably your best corollary. However, American Hustle won Best Picture at the New York Film Critics Circle and then won at Globes and SAG and that's it. It's been seen nowhere else in terms of Best Picture bids. Gravity has PGA and DGA. 12 Years also has DGA. Both have more other prizes than Hustle does. SAG is nice to have, but as The Help, Inglourious Basterds, Little Miss Sunshine, Sideways, Gosford Park and Traffic can attest, winning SAG alone isn't a good sign. None of those films, not even Traffic, won PGA or DGA. Traffic won the Oscar for Best Director, but that was a very bizarre year.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Re: Directors Guild Winners

Post by rolotomasi99 »

OscarGuy wrote:Rolo, I hate to keep picking on you, but your perpetual defense of American Hustle as the most likely Best Picture winner smacks of fan servitude. Nothing from the guilds to this point has suggested American Hustle is anything more than a third-place contender. There's more supporting a Gravity win for Best Picture than there is an American Hustle win for Best Picture at this point and suggesting that 12 Years a Slave is the one running third is absolutely weird.
Oh, thems fightin' words! :lol:

Here are my top five films of the year:
1. Gravity
2. 12 Years A Slave
3. The Wolf Of Wall Street
4. Blue Jasmine
5. The Great Beauty

There are still a few high profile films from this year I have yet to see, so I doubt AMERICAN HUSTLE will even make it into my top ten. I thought the film was great fun, but much like a magic trick there is not much there upon reflection. I compare it to THE STING in the way it delights and entertains, but that film had no right to beat out THE EXORCIST (nerve-wrackingly tense, effects driven, box-office hit, grounded by a strong female lead) or CRIES AND WHISPERS (emotionally devastating, art-house hit, hauntingly beautiful). I hope you notice the parallels I am pointing out here. 8)

The reason I keep thinking AMERICAN HUSTLE is going to win is because it is exactly what the Academy has loved for the past three Oscar years. If THE SOCIAL NETWORK or INCEPTION had beaten THE KING'S SPEECH, or THE TREE OF LIFE or HUGO had beaten THE ARTIST, or ZERO DARK THIRTY or LIFE OF PI had beaten ARGO, then I would have any easier time believing a dramatically difficult film or an effects driven film could beat a fun film that leaves everyone completely entertained. Sure, THE HURT LOCKER and NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN were difficult films, but they probably would have lost had they gone up against something like THE KING'S SPEECH or ARGO.

You are right OscarGuy that AMERICAN HUSTLE does not have much Guild support, but to me it has the support of one of the most important Guilds. Winning the Ensemble award from S.A.G. may not guarantee you Best Picture (as THE HELP will testify), but it sure goes a long way. Also, with the P.G.A., we have no idea how close AMERICAN HUSTLE was behind GRAVITY and 12 YEARS A SLAVE. If the two winners had exactly the same votes, they both could have had only one vote more than AMERICAN HUSTLE. Since both those films are out for the W.G.A., AMERICAN HUSTLE will actually have two major Guild wins compared to 12 YEARS A SLAVE's one. Obviously GRAVITY is going to dominate the tech Guilds, but those are not as important as S.A.G.

I would point out that AMERICAN HUSTLE still tied for the most Oscar noms. That has to count for something. The Academy clearly loves it. I would love to be wrong. If GRAVITY or 12 YEARS A SLAVE (or by some miracle THE WOLF OF WALL STREET) wins Best Picture, I will be jumping up and down with joy. However, in 86 years of Oscars, my top choice (or even second choice) for Best Picture has won the award only twenty or so times. While I have enjoyed all of the past three winners, none of them have been in my top ten favorite films of the year. I guess I am just having trouble believing my two favorite films are the top two contenders for Best Picture. :shock:
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
Heksagon
Adjunct
Posts: 1229
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 10:39 pm
Location: Helsinki, Finland

Re: Directors Guild Winners

Post by Heksagon »

In spite of the huge amount of people predicting that Cuarón would sweep the directing prizes, I didn't expect this to happen. I always thought that the guilds would be too reluctant to award a film that is primarily sci-fi and effects.

I don't know what to make of this, except that American Hustle seems to be dead, and lucky to win anything, in spite of doing so well in the nominations day.

Cuarón has to be the clear front-runner for Best Director now. McQueen could upset it, but it seems like a long shot currently.

What about Best Picture? I would still imagine 12 Years a Slave is more the type of film that the Academy likes, but who dares to predict a split?
Okri
Tenured
Posts: 3345
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: Directors Guild Winners

Post by Okri »

The Original BJ wrote:I'm sure the folks at Awards Daily will lob out some argument about how Cuarón has dominated director prizes this year and was always going to win here, but 12 Years a Slave is still the Best Picture frontrunner. And I'm not saying 12 Years can't win...

...but the possibility of a Gravity Best Picture victory seems a lot stronger today than at any other point in the season. As rolo points out, Gravity has got a pretty strong base -- I think it has to be considered a frontrunner in almost all of its below-the-line categories. (Production Design seems likely to go elsewhere, but honestly the only category I think it has zero chance to win is Best Actress.) I think there's a very genuine possibility that, despite the all-the-over-the-place nature of the precursors, we could still end up with a Gravity sweep of the Oscars, with future generations looking back on this race and assuming the outcome was far more of a done deal than we do in real time. Or...not. Only time will tell.

This thought is only tangentially related, but I'm wondering if the recent stumbles for 12 Years a Slave actually might help Lupita Nyong'o's chances, sort of in the way that Kim Basinger's supporting actress prize became a way for voters to give a major trophy to L.A. Confidential after its early awards dominance began to fade. (And yes, I know there are pretty significant differences in terms of performance, career, and movie between these two.) I get the sense that, even if 12 Years doesn't win the top prize, voters may feel politically motivated to make sure it gets something big.
Agreed. I think enough people give most of the credit for Gravity's success to Cuaron (a la Cameron/Titanic or Jackson/Return of the King) that I'm not predicting a split this year.

BAFTA will either "too-little, too-late" for 12 Years a Slave (if it wins) or the final nail in it's coffin (if it loses). And I was really hoping that Tee would be wrong.
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 13668
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Directors Guild Winners

Post by OscarGuy »

Rolo, I hate to keep picking on you, but your perpetual defense of American Hustle as the most likely Best Picture winner smacks of fan servitude. Nothing from the guilds to this point has suggested American Hustle is anything more than a third-place contender. There's more supporting a Gravity win for Best Picture than there is an American Hustle win for Best Picture at this point and suggesting that 12 Years a Slave is the one running third is absolutely weird.

I'm not going to pretend I have any certainty on what will win Best Picture. My personal preference (of the three) would be 12 Years a Slave, but I'm also ok with a Gravity win if only for the precedent-shattering nature of such a win. Yet, all I read here are people positing doom-and-gloom for 12 Years a Slave simply because people want to stick it to the "precursors". I wonder if the bizarre nature of the current season is giving people false hope in terms of how things will play out at the Oscars. I've seen so much hope around here that 12 Years a Slave will flop if only to make a point and that irks me. Does everyone here really hate the film that much? Do you guys really think the film is as unwarranted a Best Picture winner as Braveheart, Crash or A Beautiful Mind? The joyous way you're ripping into the film's chances is almost ghoulish.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
ITALIANO
Emeritus
Posts: 4076
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2003 1:58 pm
Location: MILAN

Re: Directors Guild Winners

Post by ITALIANO »

It will be a VERY sad Oscar night this year... :)

Now I'm really curious about the BAFTAs. If Gravity wins even here, in Europe - and we often stupidly think we have a better taste - then the race is over, for sure. What can I say? It's not an idea of cinema that I approve of, but I will accept to be part of a minority. Not the first time it happens to me.

If Gravity doesn't win, it could still easily win the Best Picture Oscar (I always tend not to predict a split). Not only because the Academy is a mostly American group, and let's face it, the director may be Mexican but Gravity is a quintessential American product, but also because it will get tons of votes from the technicians. But at least it will be a bit more interesting, because even if 12 Years a Slave wins only Best Adapted Screenplay and ONE acting award - and it can happen - IN THEORY (I know, it's probably only theory) the last envelope could still contain a surprise. (The same could be said for American Hustle, though I personally think a Best Picture win would be less possible). So I might watch it till early morning like I always, masochistically, do.
The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4312
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Directors Guild Winners

Post by The Original BJ »

I'm sure the folks at Awards Daily will lob out some argument about how Cuarón has dominated director prizes this year and was always going to win here, but 12 Years a Slave is still the Best Picture frontrunner. And I'm not saying 12 Years can't win...

...but the possibility of a Gravity Best Picture victory seems a lot stronger today than at any other point in the season. As rolo points out, Gravity has got a pretty strong base -- I think it has to be considered a frontrunner in almost all of its below-the-line categories. (Production Design seems likely to go elsewhere, but honestly the only category I think it has zero chance to win is Best Actress.) I think there's a very genuine possibility that, despite the all-the-over-the-place nature of the precursors, we could still end up with a Gravity sweep of the Oscars, with future generations looking back on this race and assuming the outcome was far more of a done deal than we do in real time. Or...not. Only time will tell.

This thought is only tangentially related, but I'm wondering if the recent stumbles for 12 Years a Slave actually might help Lupita Nyong'o's chances, sort of in the way that Kim Basinger's supporting actress prize became a way for voters to give a major trophy to L.A. Confidential after its early awards dominance began to fade. (And yes, I know there are pretty significant differences in terms of performance, career, and movie between these two.) I get the sense that, even if 12 Years doesn't win the top prize, voters may feel politically motivated to make sure it gets something big.
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Re: Directors Guild Winners

Post by rolotomasi99 »

I still think AMERICAN HUSTLE will take Best Picture (along with Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress), but Cuaron will probably take Director -- GRAVITY will also win for Editing, Cinematography, Score, Sound, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects. With 7 wins, it will be 1 shy of CABARET's record for most wins without taking the top prize.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Directors Guild Winners

Post by rolotomasi99 »

Feature Film
WINNER: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, Twelve Years A Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Documentary
Zachary Heinzerling, Cutie and the Boxer
WINNER: Jehane Noujaim, The Square
Joshua Oppenheimer, The Act of Killing
Sarah Polley, Stories We Tell
Lucy Walker, The Crash Wheel
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
Post Reply

Return to “86th Predictions and Precursors”