Producers Guild winner

For the films of 2013
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Associate
Posts: 1924
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 7:24 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Not necessarily. Alfonso Cuaron is a foreign lingo director-come-to-America, must like Ang Lee. I don't think there will be as much flack over a snub...except in the DGA situation you mentioned. But that isn't what I was talking about. I was talking about if 12 Years won Best Picture, but white-boy Russell were to take Best Director, I think the calls of racism would be much louder.


I think the calls of stupidity would be louder than the calls of racism. In what universe would 12 YEARS A SLAVE win Best Picture but lose Director to Russell and his second-hand-Scorsese directing? Is that the scenario you were thinking would actually happen? That is just not possible.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12554
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:28 am

Not necessarily. Alfonso Cuaron is a foreign lingo director-come-to-America, must like Ang Lee. I don't think there will be as much flack over a snub...except in the DGA situation you mentioned. But that isn't what I was talking about. I was talking about if 12 Years won Best Picture, but white-boy Russell were to take Best Director, I think the calls of racism would be much louder.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

User avatar
rolotomasi99
Associate
Posts: 1924
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 7:42 am

OscarGuy wrote:My arguments against a split are this: David O. Russell must follow a path similar to Ron Howard and have his film win two Oscars, Best Picture and Best Director. Steve McQueen's film being honored without Best Director could lead to charges of racism. Matter of fact, I could see a case being made to reward McQueen as the first black director to win the prize. The same narrative propelled Kathryn Bigelow to a win and at least McQueen would have a superb list of credits prior to his victory. It's possible still that Cuaron wins and Gravity takes Best Picture as the first sci-fi film to do so. There might be a groundswell of support for the film, but I have a hard time seeing that.


Some folks, like Sasha Stone, flat out say the Director Oscar should go to the same film as Best Picture. I wonder what is the point of even having two awards if they should always be linked. Other folks might take the Cannes approach, and want to spread the wealth around to different films rather than have a sweep. I think the former mentality has clearly been much stronger in the Academy then the latter.

However, I think last year allowed some people to reassess their thinking about always linking Best Picture and Director. I think the linking mentality is still the most prevalent in the Academy, but if even just a few people start thinking Best Picture does not always have to win Director too then we might see more splits...especially in close years like this.

Also, the thing about splits is in at the last 7 examples (2012, 2005, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1989, 1981), the more serious film won Director while the more Academy-pleasing film won Best Picture. That is why I think a split with AMERICAN HUSTLE winning Best Picture and McQueen or Cuaron winning Director is much more likely than 12 YEARS A SLAVE or GRAVITY winning Best Picture but not winning Director. I could easily see Russell winning Director, but given the more light-weight nature of AMERICAN HUSTLE I think there is a possibility it could prevail on the preferential ballot (with the majority of the Academy voters thinking "Boy that movie was fun") while Director could go to the more serious film or the more technically accomplished film.

Also, I would point out that no Hispanic has ever won for Director and Cuaron makes only the fourth to be nominated, which is only one more than the three African directors nominated. If Cuaron wins the DGA but loses the Oscar to Russell, I am pretty sure the charges of racism will be strong. If you really think the Academy is going to choose the Director prize that way, Cuaron benefits just as much as McQueen. Hopefully everyone will just vote race-blind because who the hell wants to win for something other than the work submitted?
Last edited by rolotomasi99 on Tue Jan 21, 2014 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

Okri
Tenured
Posts: 2615
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby Okri » Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:31 pm

DGA: please have a tie between Scorsese and Greengrass.

Thanks.

ksrymy
Adjunct
Posts: 1150
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 1:10 am
Location: Wichita, KS
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby ksrymy » Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:29 pm

OscarGuy wrote:American Hustle goes home empty-handed. If Her really is the dominant screenplay, one of the very few categories in which American Hustle competes is eliminated. Jennifer Lawrence winning a second so soon isn't impossible, but it's hard to imagine now that everyone but the Globes have weighed in favor of Lupita Nyong'o. Had it been nominated in Makeup, I would have said that would be its best chance to win, but it's not there. The only category I really see as a distinct possibility at this juncture is Costume Design.

If it made the Maleup category, and got shut out, it would join the ranks of The Turning Point and The Color Purple for most nominations without a win.
"Men get to be a mixture of the charming mannerisms of the women they have known." - F. Scott Fitzgerald

Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6528
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:59 pm

OscarGuy wrote:I don't think the Oscars use preferential balloting for the awards themselves, only for nominations. I could be wrong though.

Best picture alone -- no other category -- is voted on using the preferential system, precisely the method PGA employed last night.

This is why a split between best film and best director is more possible than it used to be (it used to be statistical rarit)y, because they're voted on in different ways. The fact that the four previous years under this system featured a broad-consensus choice (all winning PGA & DGA, two more winning SAG as well) masked this fact; this year, the apparent closeness of the contest will test the historical connection between film and director.

User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12554
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:28 pm

I don't think the Oscars use preferential balloting for the awards themselves, only for nominations. I could be wrong though.

I've posited on my site and on FB that it's entirely possible American Hustle goes home empty-handed. If Her really is the dominant screenplay, one of the very few categories in which American Hustle competes is eliminated. Jennifer Lawrence winning a second so soon isn't impossible, but it's hard to imagine now that everyone but the Globes have weighed in favor of Lupita Nyong'o. Had it been nominated in Makeup, I would have said that would be its best chance to win, but it's not there. The only category I really see as a distinct possibility at this juncture is Costume Design.

That's what leads me to say that David O. Russell has to win DGA and become a force to win the Oscar for Best Director for the film to even be considered truly in-the-race at this juncture. At least Shakespeare in Love had strong support from the creatives. I also think comparing Shakespeare in Love, which won because Harvey went heavy pushing it, to American Hustle isn't probably the best comparison.
Wesley Lovell

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15782
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:19 pm

I don't know if American Hustle is dead, but it's difficult to imagine it receiving Best Picture and no other award, which I suppose is possible, but I think it's significantly outflanked in every other race.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6528
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:23 pm

The whole "since going to ten nominees/using preferential voting, PGA has never been wrong" thing is ridiculous, because 1) we're talking four years -- ludicrously small sample size; 2) the DGA -- whose track record of predicting the Oscars dwarfs PGA -- picked the same films those years. If Fincher had won DGA in '10, or Spielberg last year, and the Oscar result was the same, then PGA would have something to brag about. (But alot of us would argue the results probably WOULDN'T have been the same -- DGA was the clincher in those races) And, given that, prior to these past few years, PGA had a far less sparkling record (missing best picture in '01, '04 and '06), I think you have to look at their choices as far from infallible.

Over at Awards Daily, everything is good news for 12 Years a Slave. Sharing the win here is definitely a positive sign for the film -- probably its best so far -- but, as on pretty much every other significant day this year, the film also fell a bit short of hope. BJ mentioned, after Hustle's SAG win, that the best way to keep the race wide-open was for 12 Years to win PGA and Cuaron to take DGA. I think many people expected it go exactly that way. So, 12 Years winning only half PGA is a bit less than anticipated. Now, DGA remains unannounced, and if McQueen were to win there, that would really change things. But if, as widely expected, Cuaron takes that prize, it's hard to see 12 Years as out in front.

"But at least American Hustle's dead!" -- widely cackled at other sites. Sorry: I don't see that. A SAG win can't be tossed off as meaningless, especially in tandem with leading the Oscar nominations, and very strong box-office (Shakespeare in Love having had that precise profile). And, while we know American Hustle finished (at best) third among PGA voters, we have no idea how close it came.

In fact, I've been thinking about how this preferential voting system works (which requires concentration); I could make the argument that, with the tiniest variation in voting, American Hustle might have won going away. (Note: this is not to say it's what happened, or to try to argue that losing is winning; merely thinking the system through) I'd like dws, or anyone else math-inclined, to check me on this, but here's how I see the process:

Ballots are divided into piles by first place vote; presumably every film gets at least one such, so there are ten piles to start. Finishing near the top is inconsequential in the early rounds: the only object is to avoid being last, as that candidate is eliminated. Its first place votes are then crossed off, and its ballots are redistributed into the piles of the films that showed up in second place. This process is repeated round by round, with the low-placing film eliminated, as in a game of musical chairs, and its ballots being added to the pile of whatever shows up next in preferential order. Presumably, at least some ballots might go down to 6th-7th-8th choices as the process goes on.

As I see it, the key to the race is when it gets down to three films. But then, 7 trailing candidates have been eliminated, and the surviving 3 likely have a great many votes. Let's say there are about 4000 ballots in play. We know Gravity and 12 Years led at that point -- figure they had 1300-1400 votes apiece. It's possible American Hustle trailed by very few votes at this point -- like, 12 Years 1345, Gravity 1330, Hustle 1325 (all hypothetical, of course). Hustle is, by fair and square rule, eliminated, and then it becomes a runoff between 12 Years and Gravity, with the only thing that matters being where on each American Hustle ballot 12 Years lies vis a vis Gravity -- if 12 Years is ahead (even 9th place to 10th), it scores a vote; same in reverse with Gravity. In my hypothetical example, I've assumed American Hustle backers were close to evenly split on the two films...some preferring human-centered stories and going for 12 Years, others finding 12 Years cold and preferring Gravity...but with just enough of a margin for Gravity to bring it into a tie position with McQueen's film.

Now, assume the very slim margin Gravity had over Hustle in round-of-3 was reversed; this pits Hustle against 12 Years for the win. But here, the results could be less ambiguous: disappointed Gravity supporters much prefer the on-a-lark quality of American Hustle to the dark indie 12 Years, and overcome 12 Years' 20 vote margin with ease; Hustle could win by a hundred votes or more and be the individual champion.

Again: you don't need to tell me this didn't happen, or accuse me of belittling the winners; I'm not. What I am saying is, this is a totally plausible result -- that American Hustle (or, for that matter, Nebraska, or Captain Phillips) could have missed the runoff by a tiny margin, and lost a chance to win the Guild decisively. So, the idea that any film beside these top two finishers is out of the race becomes a bit harder to argue.

User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12554
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:48 am

I'm sorry, rolo, I resist your assertions again. Largely built on the bizarre rationale people have developed about Argo. Argo was going to win it and that became clear early in 2013 when the precursors started brekaing its direction and it won PGA. That Affleck wasn't nominated is an anomoly and I'm certain that he would have won had he been nominated, so assuming that last year's Best Picture win was some kind of edict for future winners that they don't need director is preposterous. Four times has the Academy given Best Picture to a non-nominated film.

Once you take the most recent case out of the equation, you look back at the last twenty years and find only four examples of splits. Shakespeare in Love and Chicago are products of the Harvey Weinstein machine. Gladiator was a bit of a surprise and Crash won over Brokeback because BBM was a bit too "out" for some tastes and Oprah succeeded at championing the white-guilt Crash to win.

My arguments against a split are this: David O. Russell must follow a path similar to Ron Howard and have his film win two Oscars, Best Picture and Best Director. Steve McQueen's film being honored without Best Director could lead to charges of racism. Matter of fact, I could see a case being made to reward McQueen as the first black director to win the prize. The same narrative propelled Kathryn Bigelow to a win and at least McQueen would have a superb list of credits prior to his victory. It's possible still that Cuaron wins and Gravity takes Best Picture as the first sci-fi film to do so. There might be a groundswell of support for the film, but I have a hard time seeing that.

Anyway, these are my thoughts at present. I reserve the right to amend them after the DGA this weekend.
Wesley Lovell

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

ITALIANO
Emeritus
Posts: 3995
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2003 1:58 pm
Location: MILAN
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby ITALIANO » Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:03 am

rolotomasi99 wrote:though Fassbender certainly has a better chance than Cooper



Not really. It's pointless now to even discuss it, since we all know that Leto will get it. But without all these precursors - if we were, I mean, totally blind - Cooper would be the most logical winner. Not only because he was nominated before, but also because he could be his movie's only Acting winner. And most importantly, for the very nature of his role - while it's true that American Hustle isn't Goodfellas, Cooper could have easily been this year's Joe Pesci.

User avatar
Sonic Youth
Laureate
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 8:35 pm
Location: USA

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby Sonic Youth » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:22 am

The award for Best Film of 2013 goes to "The 2013 Oscar Race".
"What the hell?"
Win Butler

User avatar
rolotomasi99
Associate
Posts: 1924
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:46 am

ksrymy wrote:You really think the Academy is going to give the Oscar to Hawkins over Nyong'o or Lawrence?


No, I want them to give to Hawkins. Her winning would be as shocking as Marcia Gay Harden winning for POLLOCK. Though, as we have clearly just seen, this is the year for strange things to happen. I think the supporting actress Oscar will be the key to the whole night. If it goes to Nyong'o or Lawrence, their respective films are winning Best Picture. If it goes to Hawkins or either of the other two nominees, GRAVITY is winning Best Picture.

Assuming AMERICAN HUSTLE and 12 YEARS A SLAVE are winning their respective screenplay categories (not saying they are locks, just the frontrunners), that leaves them with only a few head to head categories where they can actually beat each other. I think Editing is going to GRAVITY even if it does not win Best Picture, and Set/Costume are both going to THE GREAT GATSBY. We all pretty much accept Leto is winning Supporting Actor (though Fassbender certainly has a better chance than Cooper), and Blanchett is not going to lose to Adams. Ejiofor is still in the game but fading to McConaughey, while Bale does not seem even seem like a surprise-but-plausible third option (such as DiCaprio). So that leaves only Supporting Actress for both films to possibly triumph. If Best Picture is not going to either of the actresses' films, then Hawkins has a good chance of benefiting.

While Director is still a really strong category, it is not necessarily King Maker. I could definitely see GRAVITY winning Director while AMERICAN HUSTLE wins Best Picture. AMERICAN HUSTLE, much like ARGO, is a movie that is beloved enough to win the top prize with just Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress behind it. Russell certainly has a good chance, particularly with strong support from the actors branch, but his film's Best Picture chances do not rely on his winning. 12 YEARS A SLAVE, on the other hand, depends on the prestige momentum (as in it wins so many top tier awards, it cannot be denied the main prize). That would mean along with Adapted Screenplay, it would win Supporting Actress, Lead Actor, and Director. If the passion is really strong for it, Supporting Actor could be swept up along with it; but I think Leto is almost as safe as Blanchett. With no screenplay nomination, and its sole acting nom very unlikely to lead to victory, GRAVITY must take Director along with all its tech wins to take Best Picture.

For me, Oscar night will be a serious of equations. Each of the three biggest contenders will win at least one award. GRAVITY can win the most awards and still lose Best Picture, while AMERICAN HUSTLE can win the fewest awards and still win Best Picture.

Gravity = Best Picture
Bare mininum--
It wins all its tech noms (except Set) and Director
Chances increase--
It wins Set
The contest is over--
It wins Lead Actress

12 Years A Slave = Best Picture
Bare mininum--
It wins Adapted Screenplay, Director, Supporting Actress, and Lead Actor
Chances increase--
It wins Set or Costume
The contest is over--
It wins Supporting Actor or Editing

American Hustle = Best Picture
Bare mininum--
It wins Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress
Chances increase--
It wins Set or Costume
The contest is over--
It wins Director, Editing, or any of its other acting noms
Last edited by rolotomasi99 on Tue Jan 21, 2014 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

mlrg
Adjunct
Posts: 1113
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby mlrg » Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:24 am

I think that whoever wins DGA next Saturday will win best picture.

On the other hand, academy members only start voting on February 14th, almost a month from now, and a lot can change during this period

ksrymy
Adjunct
Posts: 1150
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 1:10 am
Location: Wichita, KS
Contact:

Re: Producers Guild winner

Postby ksrymy » Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:14 am

You really think the Academy is going to give the Oscar to Hawkins over Nyong'o or Lawrence?
"Men get to be a mixture of the charming mannerisms of the women they have known." - F. Scott Fitzgerald


Return to “86th Predictions and Precursors”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest