SAG Thoughts

For the films of 2013
Mister Tee
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Re: SAG Thoughts

Postby Mister Tee » Sat Jan 18, 2014 11:14 pm

I have mostly the same reactions as BJ. Blanchett is doing exactly what many of us thought she'd do from the start -- steamrolling through the season -- and, as if she needed the boost, her speech totally killed. She could conceivably lose BAFTA to hometown girl Judi Dench, but that won't mean any more than the Geoffrey Rush/Helena Bonham Carter blips in 2010.

Leto is also coasting, something that seemed it would happen after his (somewhat unexpected) run of the "real" critics awards. He's not exactly AMPAS' type, but, like Mo'Nique, his performance squelches any objection.

I already did my best actor reaction this afternoon. I stand by what I said -- McConaughey (spelled correctly!) is the front-runner, but not invulnerable -- though I fully expect the Internet crowd to proclaim the race over.

Nyong'o proved she could get a large group to single her out -- albeit a group that was probably averse to giving Jennifer Lawrence back-to-back wins. This definitely undercuts the narrative (promulgated by, among others, me) that people might find her role too small to choose. It was a clear step forward, but I don't think it quite seals the deal.

When Nyong'o won, folks at other sites immediately jumped to the conclusion 12 Years was taking ensemble. That would have been a huge plus for 12 Years -- creating the notion, based on a week's worth of activity, that it may stumble along the way, but in the end it will always take the top prize. That sense of ultimate bulletproof-ness is now gone; we indeed have the start of the 3-way race we've been expecting. In fact, the only way the best picture race can be ruined now is if the two guilds coming in the next seven days both choose American Hustle -- which isn't out of the question (people are widely assuming Cuaron for DGA, but the same people assumed David Fincher), but seems unlikely.

But, as BJ says, it's not as if this vaults American Hustle into any commanding lead; it could just be another Sideways/Little Miss Sunshine (funny how willing SAG is to give what is at least frequently considered their best picture award to a comedy -- maybe they really believe that "Dying is easy, comedy's hard" thing). As one who always roots for these damn prelims not to wreck the Oscars, I'm of course hoping things stay up in the air all season long.

The Original BJ
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SAG Thoughts

Postby The Original BJ » Sat Jan 18, 2014 10:25 pm

Blanchett and Leto continue to steamroll through awards season, and I suspect will have no problem winning their respective Oscar categories. (Though it was kind of tacky to have Jennifer Garner present the Supporting Actor prize, when her costar was so heavily favored to win.)

I'd say Supporting Actress was a huge get for Lupita Nyong'o -- I have to imagine this moves her significantly ahead in the race for the "not Jennifer Lawrence" vote. Her gracious speech, and, let's face it, the fact that she's so beautiful, only help her Cinderella story narrative.

I'd hoped for Dern or Ejiofor in Best Actor, just to turn that category into a total cluster. McConaughey's win obviously makes him some kind of frontrunner, but, as Mister Tee put it very thoroughly in his earlier post, he wasn't competing against DiCaprio here, and I still think Dern's history could be a factor at the Oscars as well. Ejiofor, though, seems to have moved pretty clearly into also-ran territory -- he doesn't have the career points his competition does, and I think he would need a real groundswell of support for 12 Years a Slave to carry him along in the Best Actor race..

...which doesn't seem to be happening, given the night's Ensemble prize. Which isn't to say that I think American Hustle has sealed the deal for Best Picture either, as I'm sure some people will argue too quickly. American Hustle is exactly the kind of movie that triumphs here -- a bunch of big stars having a blast; of the PGA/DGA/SAG prizes, this is the one I felt most confident would go its way. That said, it is yet another case of 12 Years having a decent enough night (Lupita's prize was no sure thing), but still facing some form of disappointment.

My real hope is that PGA goes to 12 Years and DGA to Gravity and this race can remain a real free for all until the end.

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