Golden Globe reactions

For the films of 2013
Mister Tee
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 8637
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by Mister Tee »

rolotomasi99 wrote:
flipp525 wrote:I mistyped, clearly. D'oh. I meant Original Screenplay. Still, it ain't no lock. Cate Blanchett is a lock. Jared Leto is a near-lock. See?
Yeah, but are you arguing it is not even a frontrunner? If so, which films have an equal or greater shot at winning, and why? The two I mentioned as possible spoilers (NEBRASKA and BLUE JASMINE) or something else?
I start with mostly the same premise you do -- that American Hustle is by far the most likely winner in the category -- but much of that stems from the idea that Hustle is in the thick of the best picture hunt, and would thus naturally be favored.

However, I would add that: 1) many of us had similar feeling about Up in the Air four years ago: that it was the clear leader for adapted screenplay, and, if Hurt Locker turned out too much for Oscar voters to swallow for best picture, they might go for Reitman's picture instead -- but in the end Up in the Air not only didn't contend for best picture, it lost the screenplay prize to a movie not on the radar for most; 2) if either Nebraska or her get the full panoply of best picture Oscar nods -- film/director, as well as screenplay, an unexpected tech or two -- one of them would be in a strong position to upset.
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by flipp525 »

rolotomasi99 wrote:
flipp525 wrote:I mistyped, clearly. D'oh. I meant Original Screenplay. Still, it ain't no lock. Cate Blanchett is a lock. Jared Leto is a near-lock. See?
Yeah, but are you arguing it is not even a frontrunner? If so, which films have an equal or greater shot at winning, and why? The two I mentioned as possible spoilers (NEBRASKA and BLUE JASMINE) or something else?
Of course it's a frontrunner, especially with American Hustle's rise in prominence in the past month. I was arguing against you saying that it has Original Screenplay "in the bag" which it doesn't.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by rolotomasi99 »

flipp525 wrote:I mistyped, clearly. D'oh. I meant Original Screenplay. Still, it ain't no lock. Cate Blanchett is a lock. Jared Leto is a near-lock. See?
Yeah, but are you arguing it is not even a frontrunner? If so, which films have an equal or greater shot at winning, and why? The two I mentioned as possible spoilers (NEBRASKA and BLUE JASMINE) or something else?
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by rolotomasi99 »

FilmFan720 wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote: Sure, it has a happy, and more importantly, cathartic ending where people can cry and feel good; but this is a movie that puts you through more than two hours of hell. The only film in two decades that comes close to the experience is of course SCHINDLER'S LIST, and then GANDHI a decade before that. However, two films in more than three decades does not make me confident for its chances.
I've heard this said a lot, and I certainly have been an early adopter of the American Hustle is more like Argo/Artist/King's Speech, but I don't think that this argument is quite correct either, mostly because you have to ask how many opportunities has the Academy had to nominated one of those types of films. Really successful, hellish, "important" films don't exactly come along every year. Since Schindler's List, how many chances has the Academy missed to award an equally important film, one that resonates in the public as truly changing the way we look at a devastating and important period of our history the way that Schindler's List did (I'm not sure that Gandhi is in that camp…more Platoon, or The Deer Hunter would be the equal). Saving Private Ryan lost, in a surprise (and in a large part to Harvey Weinstein's campaigning). But so many other films in this category since Schindler have either fizzled and died pre-Oscars (Amistad), folded under criticism in the season (Zero Dark Thirty) or else haven't become quite popular enough to get over the hurdle to the big prize (The Pianist). Maybe we are thinking of this wrong…its not that the Academy doesn't want to award big sprawling, difficult to view epics, its just that they don't get the chance too very often.

Right now, I think the big hurdle 12 Years a Slave has is one you mention, that I was trying to figure out last night: can it garner enough awards to carry it through. At this point, it seems like it is not going to be the juggernaut we all thought it would be, and isn't going to be an across the board threat the way some of these other films are (it isn't winning Gandhi's 8 awards, or Schindler's 7). It may be able to syphon one of the design awards from Great Gatsby, but can it suffice a Best Picture win with Picture, Director, one acting award and screenplay? The King's Speech and No Country for Old Men both did.
I should have included PLATOON. It is a much better comparison than GANDHI.

I would clarify that I am not just talking about films that deal with historical and/or heavy subjects. THE LAST EMPEROR is not a barrel of laughs, but I would not compare it SCHINDLER'S LIST or 12 YEARS A SLAVE. I am talking about those films that are just so dark and heavy that people treat it like going to a funeral. For example, LINCOLN, DJANGO UNCHAINED, and THE BUTLER were certainly sprawling films that looked at the dark history of racism, slavery, and civil rights in our country, but the tone of the films were far more audience friendly than something like 12 YEARS A SLAVE.

Maybe I am not explaining it properly, but I love dark and heavy films. However, no matter how effusively I praise and recommend these films to people I know, folks will just act like I am giving them homework or making them take their medicine. They really, really do not want to watch these sad, depressing films, even though they acknowledge they have heard nothing but superlatives for their quality. I just get this feeling AMERICAN HUSTLE has become the film the Academy is excited about honoring. I am more than happy to be wrong about this, but just like the past three winners, at some point the momentum toward the fun film just becomes clear. It is not crystal clear yet, but the waters are becoming less murky. We shall see if the Guilds will clean up the waters or muddy them even more.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by flipp525 »

I mistyped, clearly. D'oh. I meant Original Screenplay. Still, it ain't no lock. Cate Blanchett is a lock. Jared Leto is a near-lock. See?
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by rolotomasi99 »

flipp525 wrote:rolo, your post is way too broad and matter-of-fact for such a shape-shifting year. You might want to re-think a lot of your assertions (one that immediately comes to mind is your American Hustle is a lock in Adapted Screenplay. Um, no, it's not.)
I had to double check to make sure I had not accidentally typed Adapted Screenplay, but since I did not I am assuming it was a typo on your part. I am not sure if you were thinking AMERICAN HUSTLE would be in the Adapted Screenplay category when you said it is not a lock. Maybe we just disagree how that word is used. I am not saying it is a lock the way GRAVITY is a lock to win Visual Effects. I guess I should have said frontrunner because from where I am sitting no other film in the possible Original Screenplay line-up has much of a chance. I would love for HER to win, but I think it will be that film's only nomination. Last year when I was hoping MOONRISE KINGDOM would win the same category, someone here mentioned DESIGNING WOMEN (1957) was the last film to win for its screenplay when that was its sole nomination. I guess the other two strong possibilities are BLUE JASMINE and NEBRASKA, but neither is attracting the adoration AMERICAN HUSTLE has received. INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS is my prediction for the the fifth nominee, but I do not see it having any chance of winning. The other possibilities in this category from what I can see are DALLAS BUYER'S CLUB, SAVING MR. BANKS, and GRAVITY, but they would just be lucky to be nominated.

So if you were just arguing with my use of the word lock rather than frontrunner, I will concede the point. However, if you truly think AMERICAN HUSTLE is not the most likely film to win this category I would love to read your thoughts on why and the possible spoiler(s). If you have already posted your thoughts on this subject, point me to the thread because I am genuinely interested in knowing who you think can beat this crowd pleaser.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
Jefforey Smith
Graduate
Posts: 117
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 12:13 pm
Location: Lexington, Kentucky

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by Jefforey Smith »

12 YEARS A SLAVE not taking Best Actor/Supporting Actress last night came as a surprise. I had considered Ejiofor & Nyong'o Oscar locks, now it seems their fate is perhaps precarious.
FilmFan720
Emeritus
Posts: 3650
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 3:57 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by FilmFan720 »

rolotomasi99 wrote: Sure, it has a happy, and more importantly, cathartic ending where people can cry and feel good; but this is a movie that puts you through more than two hours of hell. The only film in two decades that comes close to the experience is of course SCHINDLER'S LIST, and then GANDHI a decade before that. However, two films in more than three decades does not make me confident for its chances.
I've heard this said a lot, and I certainly have been an early adopter of the American Hustle is more like Argo/Artist/King's Speech, but I don't think that this argument is quite correct either, mostly because you have to ask how many opportunities has the Academy had to nominated one of those types of films. Really successful, hellish, "important" films don't exactly come along every year. Since Schindler's List, how many chances has the Academy missed to award an equally important film, one that resonates in the public as truly changing the way we look at a devastating and important period of our history the way that Schindler's List did (I'm not sure that Gandhi is in that camp…more Platoon, or The Deer Hunter would be the equal). Saving Private Ryan lost, in a surprise (and in a large part to Harvey Weinstein's campaigning). But so many other films in this category since Schindler have either fizzled and died pre-Oscars (Amistad), folded under criticism in the season (Zero Dark Thirty) or else haven't become quite popular enough to get over the hurdle to the big prize (The Pianist). Maybe we are thinking of this wrong…its not that the Academy doesn't want to award big sprawling, difficult to view epics, its just that they don't get the chance too very often.

Right now, I think the big hurdle 12 Years a Slave has is one you mention, that I was trying to figure out last night: can it garner enough awards to carry it through. At this point, it seems like it is not going to be the juggernaut we all thought it would be, and isn't going to be an across the board threat the way some of these other films are (it isn't winning Gandhi's 8 awards, or Schindler's 7). It may be able to syphon one of the design awards from Great Gatsby, but can it suffice a Best Picture win with Picture, Director, one acting award and screenplay? The King's Speech and No Country for Old Men both did.
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
- Minor Myers, Jr.
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19318
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by Big Magilla »

flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:The presenters were mostly a lively bunch with Emma Thompson with her blood red insoles and champagne glass the highlight.
It was a martini glass (with, I believe, two olives).

Also, can I be the first to say: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 2?! WTF. NOOO!!!
A martini glass, yes, and the blood red was on the soles, not the insole as a clip I caught in passing on the Today Show clearly indicated.

And, yes indeed, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 2 in which Richard Gere, Tamsen Grieg and David Strathairn join Maggie Smith, Bill Nighy, Judi Dench, Penelope Wilton, Cecila Imrie, Ronald Pickup and Dev Patel in celebration of the elderly and beautiful is on the way.
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by flipp525 »

Big Magilla wrote:The presenters were mostly a lively bunch with Emma Thompson with her blood red insoles and champagne glass the highlight.
It was a martini glass (with, I believe, two olives).

Also, can I be the first to say: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 2?! WTF. NOOO!!!

rolo, your post is way too broad and matter-of-fact for such a shape-shifting year. You might want to re-think a lot of your assertions (one that immediately comes to mind is your American Hustle is a lock in Adapted Screenplay. Um, no, it's not.)

Oh, and: PhiloMANIA!
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10747
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by Sabin »

EDIT:

I'm sure there has been a bigger train wreck than Jacqueline Bisset's speech in the past, but I can't remember it off-hand. It is impossible to tell if her drunk is informing her crazy or the other way around. She couldn't have expected to win at this point, so it's your party, lady!
"How's the despair?"
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 13668
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by OscarGuy »

I disagree with many of your assertions, but don't have the time to discuss. I don't think Original Screenplay is that assured and even if it was and Lawrence didn't win Best Supporting Actress, you have to go all the way back to 1952 to find a film that won only two Oscars including Best Picture. The Greatest Show on Earth. I don't think American Hustle will go home with that small a total if it were to win, so it either has to win at least 3 awards (a number far more common in the last decade than since the early days), or it's going home empty-handed. And I don't see the Academy rewarding Hustle without also honoring David O. Russell. So, either he wins Best Director or his film loses Best Picture. I honestly don't see any other alternative as feasible.

And let's remember that had Ben Affleck been nominated for Best Director last year, he would have also won.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by rolotomasi99 »

Well, no matter who takes Best Picture, GRAVITY will be one of the biggest winners of the night. I think we can all agree Visual Effects, Cinematography, Sound, Sound Editing, and Film Editing are pretty much locked up. You have five statues right there. Then you have a possible Score win, and maybe Director. It seems plausible that GRAVITY could win seven Oscars, including Director, and still not take Best Picture.

The only other two possibilities seem to be AMERICAN HUSTLE and 12 YEARS A SLAVE. The former is more like the majority of the winners this century, particularly the three most recent Best Picture films. The latter is the type of film that only wins every once in a while. In this century you have MILLION DOLLAR BABY, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, and THE HURT LOCKER. However, all those film had "fun" elements about them that made their harder parts go down more easily (a sports drama, a thriller, and an action film). 12 YEARS A SLAVE has none of that. Sure, it has a happy, and more importantly, cathartic ending where people can cry and feel good; but this is a movie that puts you through more than two hours of hell. The only film in two decades that comes close to the experience is of course SCHINDLER'S LIST, and then GANDHI a decade before that. However, two films in more than three decades does not make me confident for its chances. AMERICAN HUSTLE on the other hand has everything going for it. It is fun, funny, historical, and most importantly made by people the Academy has warm and fuzzy feelings for. This movie is a comedy and a heist flick, has a sharp tongued script, powerhouse performances, is based on real life events, has hilarious period details (the clothes! the hair!), and a killer soundtrack. This is the type of film the Academy loves to award Best Picture: both a commercial and artistic success. It is a very safe choice, and we all know the Academy will make a safe choice over a tough choice 9 times out of 10.

My big question though is what other than Best Picture will AMERICAN HUSTLE win? Original Screenplay is in the bag (as much as I would love a win for HER). Of AMERICAN HUSTLE's likely nominations, THE GREAT GATSBY is winning Costumes and Set, GRAVITY is taking Editing, and the only acting possibility is Supporting Actress. So that leaves Director as the only other possible win. If GRAVITY or 12 YEARS A SLAVE take Director instead, that would be the second Best Picture winner in a row (and only the third in the past three decades) to win less than four Oscars total. Those statistics are not promising. Director is not impossible for AMERICAN HUSTLE to win, but the odds are not as good as Screenplay and Best Picture. Lawrence's chances also seem low considering she just recently won, but Christoph Waltz proved the Academy is not too concerned with that sort of thing.

If 12 YEARS A SLAVE does take Best Picture, it will probably grab Adapted Screenplay, Lead Actor, Supporting Actress, and Director. Score is a possibility, but a long shot considering how minimalist it was. Unlike AMERICAN HUSTLE, 12 YEARS A SLAVE is not going to win Best Picture with just a few other statues. It has to take several in order to justify it as a prestige winner rather than a crowd pleaser. Even if it does not win Best Picture, I could see a repeat of THE PIANIST, with the film winning Director, Adapted Screenplay, and Lead Actor.

If the Guilds do not clarify things (and I really hope they do not since it will make Oscar night all the more exciting), we should keep our eye on who wins Supporting Actress. If it goes to Nyong'o or Lawrence, their corresponding film will win Best Picture. If it goes to someone else, GRAVITY is probably going to take the top prize.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19318
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by Big Magilla »

I thought Tina Fey and Amy Pohler were a bit off. The opening with there's this one and there's that one went on too long and except for the Clooney joke fell mostly flat.

Nice to see Jacqueline Bisset finally win something, but what was that speech all about?

The presenters were mostly a lively bunch with Emma Thompson with her blood red insoles and champagne glass the highlight.

Nice to see and hear Diane Keaton sing after all these years.

As for the awards, I think this really bolsters McConnaughey's Oscar chances, DiCaprio's, too, but only if he's nominated. Ejiofor remains in the race but he's not the certain winner he looked to be several months ago. If he doesn't win the BAFTA he won't win the Oscar.

Cate Blanchett should have a few vodkas at all these events. It certainly loosens her up in a nice way. Nice of Harvey to fly the real Philomena Lee in in place of Judi Dench who is in India filming The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 2, but her absence makes an upset win at any of these events even more unlikely. Katharine Hepburn and Maggie Smith (at the Emmys) excepted, they expect the people they vote for to show up.

Jared Leto is seeming more and more like an Oscar lock.

Jennifer Lawrence presents a quandary. She may give the year's best supporting actress performance, certainly the one that's the most fun, but two Oscars in two years at 23? What would she do for an encore, win a third for the upcoming remake of East of Eden?

It's looking more and more like American Hustle, not Gravity, will battle it out with 12 Years a Slave for Best Picture while Gravity will win Best Director for Alfonso Cuaron.

Her for Best Screenplay was a nice surprise. Can the Oscars repeat?
anonymous1980
Laureate
Posts: 6377
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 10:03 pm
Location: Manila
Contact:

Re: Golden Globe reactions

Post by anonymous1980 »

I think Gravity has a shot at winning too.
Post Reply

Return to “86th Predictions and Precursors”