Golden Globes prediction contest

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Sabin
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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby Sabin » Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:06 pm

Wait, I won this?
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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:19 am

I must say I'm rather surprised I did that well. After missing out on score, song and comedy/musical actor, I thought for sure I was toast.
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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:23 am

Oops. I'm sorry. Edited to include you guys.

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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby Cinemanolis » Mon Jan 13, 2014 5:00 am

Congratulations to Sabin!

Flipp525 and me are missing from the below list but we didn't win anyway, although flipp came close scoring 27.

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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:46 am

THE RESULTS!

15 points = Greg
17 points = Big Magilla
18 points = Snick's Guy
19 points = ITALIANO
20 points = anonymous1980
23 points = mlrg, ksrymy, Heksagon and Aceisgreat
24 points = The Original BJ and Cinemanolis
25 points = Mister Tee
27 points = FilmFan720, flipp525 and Oscar Guy

....and the winner with 29 points is....

SABIN!!!!!

Take a bow!
Last edited by anonymous1980 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:22 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Jan 12, 2014 11:29 pm

This was a Globes year when things were all over the place -- both Best Picture prizes, Best Director, and Screenplay to different films. Interestingly enough, this is something that happens pretty frequently at the Globes; this millennium, it happened in 2000, 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2011. (The last time it happened at the Oscars? 1940!) All of this pleasingly keeps this race pretty muddled among some strong candidates; 12 Years a Slave just barely hung on to that Best Picture (Drama) prize, while losing everything else, a pretty good representation of its status as de facto but not invulnerable frontrunner.

The lead actor categories offered the biggest surprises of the night. I'd thought McConaughey a possibility, but like most, had bet on Ejiofor. An even bigger shock was DiCaprio beating Bruce Dern. Given that I still think Ejiofor and Dern are both pretty strong win candidates, this race just got a whole lot more complicated. Hooray!

The prizes for DiCaprio and Adams also gave a big boost to two candidates who really seem to be fighting for a spot in the final Oscar lineup. (Both were omitted at SAG, but triumphed over candidates nominated there). I could see a scenario where both made the Oscar five, or neither. But both lead categories feature too many strong candidates, and in crowded fields, surprising snubs can happen, so I'd be hard-pressed to declare that many flat-out locks in either race now.

Cate Blanchett and Jared Leto continue their season-long dominance.

Like most, I figured Jennifer Lawrence would triumph here. I wonder if the month long wait between the precursors and Oscar might have an effect on this race, though. If Lawrence wins at SAG too, there would be plenty of time for a "doesn't she have enough awards?" narrative to kick in, if enough Oscar voters feel that way. Or, she could emerge as a solid frontrunner and win a rare back-to-back prize simply based on acclimation for this role.

I thought that Blue is the Warmest Color was, overall, a more fully successful film than The Great Beauty. But there were a lot of wonderful things about Great Beauty as well, so I was fine with seeing the wealth spread to another of the year's top foreign efforts.

Obviously, my assumption that "Let It Go" was a shoo-in proved to be a big face plant, though I have to say I assumed even if it lost it would be to "Please Mr. Kennedy." Given the Globes' track record, I honestly have no idea if this is good news for "Ordinary Love" or bad news.

All is Lost hadn't even crossed my mind as a possible score victor...but you are totally right, Mister Tee, there just don't seem to be that many candidates this year, and the very prevalent nature of the music in that film maybe should have clued some of us in that it was a stronger player than we thought.

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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby FilmFan720 » Sun Jan 12, 2014 11:09 pm

Mister Tee wrote:Well, congratulations to FilmFan, for being the only one to scrounge even a point out of musical score.


Wow, thanks! I didn't realize it was that out there of a pick!
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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 12, 2014 9:02 pm

Well, congratulations to FilmFan, for being the only one to scrounge even a point out of musical score.

It probably won't happen now, because its cover is blown, but All is Lost is actually the kind of sleeper score winner at the Oscars -- like Milagro Beanfield War, or Red Violin -- that can slip through when no one's that enthused about the high profile candidates. (And my impression this year is that Gravity is viewed as a bit bombastic, and 12 Years partly cribbed from previous Zimmer scores)

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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Jan 12, 2014 8:55 pm

Well...huh.

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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby Sonic Youth » Sun Jan 12, 2014 8:52 pm

*tap tap* Is this thing on?
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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Jan 12, 2014 6:53 pm

It may indeed be a generational thing. If you look at the Billboard charts, "Let it Go" may not be the number one single, but the Frozen soundtrack is currently the number one ALBUM, which was a decent enough music news story when it bumped Beyoncé's album from the top spot.

Also, the song itself has been a total social media phenomenon. Disney released the entire "Let It Go" sequence from the movie to YouTube, which got a lot of attention, and various covers and mashups (like a rather hilarious one of a four-year-old singing it) have popped up all over the place. And, at least in Los Angeles, it's virtually impossible to escape the song at any karaoke bar.

Now, I know what you're saying -- none of this is any kind of empirical evidence that the generation voting on the Oscars has responded to the song in the same way. (And to clarify, when I said you'd have to go back to Lose Yourself to find a song that so permeated the culture, I meant one in an Oscar race.) But given that I can barely even remember any other songs from movies this year (save for the Oscar-ineligible Llewyn Davis number), I can only assume that the one people in my real life (in entertainment industry circles, no less) can't stop singing and talking about is running well ahead of the pack. (My friend who's married to an Academy member -- and fills out his ballot every year -- has broken into the song on a number of occasions in daily life, and has said it will certainly get her Oscar vote.)

But, as I said, who knows what kind of nominees the voters will dredge up, and how they will affect the Oscar race, particularly if, as many are predicting, something else wins tonight.

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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby ksrymy » Sun Jan 12, 2014 6:38 pm

Mister Tee wrote:
The Original BJ wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:Song: Please, Mr. Kennedy
(BJ, I disagree with you on two scores: first, I don’t see “Let It Go” as a 90s Alan Menken-like Oscar juggernaut; but, even if I did, the Globes in this millennium have very rarely been in synch with the Oscars, frequently picking songs that fail to be nominated by AMPAS)


Your second point is extremely valid, and when I reminded myself of just how out of sync HFPA/Oscar have been in this category, I realized a more fluky choice might indeed prevail tomorrow.

But gosh, I still think Let It Go just about has the Oscar in the bag. I honestly think you'd have to go back to Lose Yourself to find a song that has permeated the culture to such a strong degree, and the default-to-animation proclivity runs very high in this category. But...this is definitely a conversation for another day, once we even see what the competition is.

A conversation I definitely want to hear...because, when I read this, I thought, Ah, the disadvantage of not being young and hanging out in pop-culture-friendly circles. I raced to the Billboard charts, thinking Let It Go must have flown to the top -- but found it only at number 27 (albeit "with a bullet"). Is it some sort of download phenomenon of which I'm unaware? Why do you compare it to Lose Yourself, which even an aging fart like me knew was a huge hit? (Sort of on the same subject: my surprise about Frozen -- which is obviously an enormous box-office success -- is how many people my age have expressed zero interest in seeing it. This might be a generational thing)

Lose Yourself was the last Oscar-winning song to have also been a Billboard #1 hit. Songs from movies don't really climb the charts anymore - they don't get consistent radio play. Lana Del Rey's Young and Beautiful from Gatsby made its way into the top twenty this year.

And the Let It Go that charted is the one from the end credits by the chart-friendly Demi Lovato. Idina Menzel would never make the Hot 100.
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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 12, 2014 6:02 pm

The Original BJ wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:Song: Please, Mr. Kennedy
(BJ, I disagree with you on two scores: first, I don’t see “Let It Go” as a 90s Alan Menken-like Oscar juggernaut; but, even if I did, the Globes in this millennium have very rarely been in synch with the Oscars, frequently picking songs that fail to be nominated by AMPAS)


Your second point is extremely valid, and when I reminded myself of just how out of sync HFPA/Oscar have been in this category, I realized a more fluky choice might indeed prevail tomorrow.

But gosh, I still think Let It Go just about has the Oscar in the bag. I honestly think you'd have to go back to Lose Yourself to find a song that has permeated the culture to such a strong degree, and the default-to-animation proclivity runs very high in this category. But...this is definitely a conversation for another day, once we even see what the competition is.

A conversation I definitely want to hear...because, when I read this, I thought, Ah, the disadvantage of not being young and hanging out in pop-culture-friendly circles. I raced to the Billboard charts, thinking Let It Go must have flown to the top -- but found it only at number 27 (albeit "with a bullet"). Is it some sort of download phenomenon of which I'm unaware? Why do you compare it to Lose Yourself, which even an aging fart like me knew was a huge hit? (Sort of on the same subject: my surprise about Frozen -- which is obviously an enormous box-office success -- is how many people my age have expressed zero interest in seeing it. This might be a generational thing)

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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 12, 2014 2:08 pm

The Original BJ wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:
The Original BJ wrote:At this point I feel like Meryl Streep has become to me what Judi Dench is to Magilla -- the candidate I've consistently put faith in despite evidence to the contrary that support for her runs that high. (I see virtually everyone has predicted Adams, who I wouldn't be at all surprised to see win.) But sometimes it's fun to stick to your hunches, on the chance you'll be right and standing alone.


Oy, vey. I like Judi Dench but I am not a constant supporter.


I was only referring to this year's race.

Oh, OK.

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Re: Golden Globes prediction contest

Postby Aceisgreat » Sun Jan 12, 2014 1:33 pm

Picture, Drama:
Gravity

Picture, Comedy:
American Hustle

Director:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Actor, Drama:
Robert Redford, All is Lost
(Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave)

Actress, Drama:
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Actor, Comedy:
Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Actress, Comedy:
Amy Adams, American Hustle

Supporting Actor:
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting Actress:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
(Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle)

Screenplay:
American Hustle
(Her)

Score:
Gravity

Song:
"Let It Go", Frozen

Animated Film:
Frozen

Foreign Language Film:
The Great Beauty
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