As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

For the films of 2013
mlrg
Adjunct
Posts: 1111
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby mlrg » Sun Jan 05, 2014 3:50 pm

Jefforey Smith wrote:

Does anyone know which celebrity will be doing the announcements Thursday morning?


It wasn't announced yet.

Jefforey Smith
Graduate
Posts: 51
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 12:13 pm
Location: Lexington, Kentucky

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Jefforey Smith » Sun Jan 05, 2014 3:48 pm

A great deal of consensus it seems this year on who the final five will be in the major categories.

Does anyone know which celebrity will be doing the announcements Thursday morning?

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15734
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Jan 02, 2014 12:07 pm

Eric, you're too modest. You do influence taste, just not the Oscars. :)
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

User avatar
Eric
Tenured
Posts: 2722
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 11:18 pm
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Contact:

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Eric » Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:50 am

Speaking as a "critic" from flyover country (well, I guess I can maybe ditch the scare quotes if someone like Rex Reed still counts as a critic), I think there should be no regional critics groups outside of NY and LA. Simple as that.

It's not that I believe critics elsewhere aren't capable of insight or discernment. They just aren't located within the twin nexuses of the film industry, and I think that's an important prerequisite to be considered a tastemaker (which is really the only thing critic groups were established to do: make taste).

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15734
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:32 am

Predictions are generally based on two factors, what the predictor's perceptions are based on his/her own likes/dislikes and a canvas of others - critics, Academy members and so on. When it comes to voting their own awards, critics tend to vote what they've been advocating/predicting all along. When there is a consensus amongst critics, that consensus generally reflects what's been in the bloggers' predictions as well. These consensus wins will carry over to the Oscar nominations. Fringe wins, unless they come from long respected groups like NY, LA and the NASFC, and sometimes even when they do, don't tend to make headway with Oscar voters.

As to what wins Oscars these days, I don't think anyone really has a handle on.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12547
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Jan 02, 2014 7:22 am

Heaven forbid groups vote their opinion and not try to be "different". Oh what a world that would be. You complain constantly that the multitude of regional critics creates juggernauts because you think the Academy actually listens to critics? We know this has never been the case. Perhaps for nominations, but not for winners. If that were true, then we'd have Wreck-It Ralph as Best Animated Feature, George Clooney as Best Actor for The Descendants, Michelle Williams as Best Actress for My Wee with Marilyn, Albert Brooks as a nominee for Drive, Jessica Chastain as Oscar winner for something, The Social Network for Best Picture, David Fincher as Best Director, George Clooney as Best Actor for Up in the Air, Carey Mulligan as Best Actress for An Education, Sally Hawkins as nominee and winner for Best Actress for Happy-Go-Lucky.

Those are all in the last five years and all were the most-honored actors/actresses/pictures/directors from the critics. Some may not have been landslides, but for every front-runner that emerges, the Academy can still go different directions. Don't dismiss or deride regional critics for voting their beliefs. Some of them may be trying to mimic the Oscars, but many of them just want to honor the year's best work. As for this year, the majority have predicted a split between 12 Years as Best Picture and Cuaron as Director. You mention this, but then seem to dismiss it quickly.

So, you're fine in saying that they are all trying to predict the Oscars, but because they diverge from the Academy's tendency to straight-line vote Best Picture/Best Director, you're willing to dismiss them as not being good predictors. You can't believe both. Maybe the Academy goes a different direction, maybe it doesn't. Don't deride anyone other than the BFCA who has actively created a pattern to believe they are just trying to predict the Oscars, not vote for the year's best.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6501
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:12 pm

A few random things have occurred to me, and, since this appears to be the live thread, I'll put them here:

The last of the old-pro critics' groups, the National Society, goes on Saturday. BJ intimated after NY/LA that this might be the place for 12 Years a Slave to win a major prize. But the relentlessness with which all the East Bumfuck critics have swarmed over McQueen's film make it less likely the choice of a group that prides itself on coolness. I have an idea this might be where Inside Llewyn Davis wins the top award, and I wouldn't be surprised if Kechiche or Sorrentino vied for best director.

Speaking of those regional critics: they've certainly lived down to my low view of them this year. With all the options available -- particularly under film/director/actor and supporting actress -- they've fallen in line for the pre-season-decreed slate with breathtaking uniformity...proving once and for all they're not critics, just Oscar bloggers with delusions of grandeur: mini-versions of the Broadcast Critics.

I presume the Broadcasters will echo the template (12 Years/Ejiofor/Blanchett/Leto/Nyong'o), with only director questionable (most of the midget groups have picked Cuaron, but the Broadcasters rarely split film and director). What I wonder is, will the Broadcasters set the debate this year as they too often have, with their awards now being given out not only after the Oscar nominations but also after the Globes (and only two days prior to SAG)? Their influence has recently seemed to derive from going first, and having the ability to guide those two groups to follow their lead (even on uncertain choices like Melissa Leo). If those groups strike out in other directions (and I could see both doing so), we might actually have a suspenseful year.

The early Globes & SAG presentations, in case anyone doesn't know, come from networks trying to avoid competition with the Olympics. The Oscars are also trying to stay out of the way, in their case by moving the ceremony to a late-by-recent-standards March. This has created an odd circumstance where the only prelim to be given out post February 1st is the tangentially-related BAFTA -- which is to say, all guilds will be done more than a month prior to the Oscars. Some have felt that the compressed deadline is partially responsible for the numbingly predictable results of recent years -- that there's never been time for voters to get the kind of wild hair that led to Halle Berry or Adrien Brody. Might that full month of no developments create more opportunity for surprise?

I'm still more committed than most to the idea that Sally Hawkins will make the supporting actress list at the Oscars. Call this rationalization or weird insight, but it's struck me that some recent surprise or at least uncertain supporting nominees have been matched to very likely lead acting winners: Ethan Hawke in Training Day, Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, Jacki Weaver last year (even Michael Shannon is half a match, since he got nominated for the film we expected to be Winslet's best actress vehicle). It may be that voters make a point of watching those most-highly-touted lead performances, and some of their co-stars can benefit (though Mila Kunis didn't).

I guess some people are still pushing the Tom Hanks/Mr. Banks possibility. The odd thing about that performance is, you hear a lot of "They love Tom Hanks, for Christ's sake", or "He's playing Walt Disney, for Christ's sake". What no one ever seems to say is, "Boy, Hanks was great in that". They DO say that about his Captain Phillips work (at least the final moments); if he's nominated for one, I dearly hope it's that.

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15734
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Dec 31, 2013 8:59 am

No, they'll never go completely on-line as long as there are still old-timers who refuse to learn how to use a computer or smart phone.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

Eenusch
Graduate
Posts: 76
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:21 am

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Eenusch » Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:00 am

Last year there was a hybrid ballot-online voting process for the Oscars.

I may be wrong on this but I thought this year was going to be completely online.

No?

Sabin
Laureate
Posts: 7396
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Sabin » Sun Dec 29, 2013 6:50 pm

I think the loveliest surprise at the Golden Globes would be Julie Delpy winning Best Comedic or Musical Actress.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15734
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Dec 29, 2013 3:37 pm

Snick's Guy wrote:I am hoping that the "pre-ordained" group of five for best actress remains intact on nomination day. I see Amy Adams as the biggest threat to bust up the group. If I had to see one drop, I would want it to be Sandra Bullock, but she is a lock. I can't remember the last time (if ever) that Meryl Streep was ever seriously considered a strong contender for a nomination and left off the ballot (maybe for The Hours, but she was nominated that year in supporting for Adaptation), so I would be surprised to see her left off the list. I think if one has to go to make room for Adams it would be Emma Thompson.

Will be interesting to see if Meryl Streep triumphs over Amy Adams at the Globes in the Comedy Actress category. My hunch is that she will.

I think any one of the Globe nominees for Comedy Actress could win this year, but the Globes do love Streep.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15734
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Dec 29, 2013 3:28 pm

ksrymy wrote:
flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:I’m still not seeing Julia Roberts, but then I’ve been wrong about her before.

When was that? Her past three nominations have been pretty much sure-things.

Her Pretty Woman nomination came as a bit of a shock. If you watch the nomination announcements on YouTube, you hear several audible gasps when she is announced.

I didn't see her as a lock for Steel Magnolias either.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

Snick's Guy
Temp
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Nov 20, 2004 6:43 pm
Location: Colorado Springs, CO

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Snick's Guy » Sun Dec 29, 2013 2:54 pm

I am hoping that the "pre-ordained" group of five for best actress remains intact on nomination day. I see Amy Adams as the biggest threat to bust up the group. If I had to see one drop, I would want it to be Sandra Bullock, but she is a lock. I can't remember the last time (if ever) that Meryl Streep was ever seriously considered a strong contender for a nomination and left off the ballot (maybe for The Hours, but she was nominated that year in supporting for Adaptation), so I would be surprised to see her left off the list. I think if one has to go to make room for Adams it would be Emma Thompson.

Will be interesting to see if Meryl Streep triumphs over Amy Adams at the Globes in the Comedy Actress category. My hunch is that she will.

Uri
Adjunct
Posts: 1098
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 11:37 pm
Location: Israel

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby Uri » Sun Dec 29, 2013 1:07 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Streep is the most vulnerable due to the general distaste for her film, but she’s been nominated in the past for lesser performances


No, she hasn't.

ksrymy
Adjunct
Posts: 1150
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2011 1:10 am
Location: Wichita, KS
Contact:

Re: As the Ballots Are Being Filled Out

Postby ksrymy » Sun Dec 29, 2013 12:51 pm

flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:I’m still not seeing Julia Roberts, but then I’ve been wrong about her before.

When was that? Her past three nominations have been pretty much sure-things.

Her Pretty Woman nomination came as a bit of a shock. If you watch the nomination announcements on YouTube, you hear several audible gasps when she is announced.
"Men get to be a mixture of the charming mannerisms of the women they have known." - F. Scott Fitzgerald


Return to “86th Predictions and Precursors”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest