SAG Nominations

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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby Sabin » Fri Dec 13, 2013 12:00 pm

Marion Cotillard, Helen Mirren, Tilda Swinton, Kate Winslet, Angelina Jolie, Zhang Ziyi, and Evan Rachel Wood have all in the past year gotten Golden Globe and Screen Actor's Guild nominations with no subsequent Oscar nominations. So, that's pretty good news for presumably Amy Adams.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby criddic3 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:45 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Let's also recall that Robert Redford has only one line of dialogue in the film (I'm not counting his open narration). And unless they really play up Redfords desire to say more with less, his lack of theatrics may hurt is chances more than anything.


Jean Dujardin won this award with less dialogue, though you are probably right about Redford not using any theatrics. Dujardin did ooze charm in his role. Still, if the voters really see Robert Redford as overdue for acting recognition, I think he would have shown up here. He's never been up for a SAG award, whereas he has been nominated for a Best Actor Oscar (40 years ago, for "The Sting") and won an Honorary award in 2002. As a past Best Director winner, I have long questioned the whole "he's overdue" mantra that some have been using of late.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby flipp525 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 8:54 pm

That Phil Spector movie was unwatchable.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Dec 11, 2013 7:11 pm

I forgot to mention this in my post (given that it's about the tv categories) but it's worth noting that Mad Men was completely shut-out. Apparently that slight dip in quality this season caused voters to turn on it in a pretty major way.

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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:14 pm

Tom O'Neil's anuual actually halfway-interesting observation: the merger witrh AFTRA brings a ton of additional voters into the pool. It may not have had significant impact on nominations -- though surely some of the committee were drawn from AFTRA -- but it might further dilute the taste of the final judgment. Not to say SAG actors automatically have more discernment than AFTRA folk -- there are wise and dunderheaded in both groups -- but SAG has, in recent years, shown less of the populism they did at the start (when they picked Zellweger for Chicago, or Johnny Depp) and started following the buzz (Jeff Bridges' win had to be a blind choice for many; the film was barely in release at the time of the awards). I'd actually prefer if SAG regressed to populism, and got out of the mainly-Oscar-anticipating business.

Anyway, I wonder if this fact might make Oprah an even-more-likely possibility for the win here. And is anyone else thinking the SAG popular vote might go not to old-timer Dern, but to contemporary star McConnaughey?

Another interesting item: Variety suggests that, because of its European theatrical release, Behind the Candelabra's Douglas could be nominated for and even win at BAFTA. It might not happen if they're desperate to remain part of this "engine driving the Ocars" machine. But wouldn't it be great to take a precursor entirely out of the mix?

BJ, my primary thing with supporting actress is 1) I'm not entirely sold on Oprah, even yet; 2) I think Octavia Spencer still has a pulse; and 3) I keep hearing voters REALLY like Blue Jasmine, so I haven't given up on Sally Hawkins as a tag-along. (Maggie Gyllenhaal rdux) By the way: there look like there could be alot of paired nominees this year: Slave's three, of course, but also potential doubles from Nebraska, Dallas Buyer's, Captain Phillips, American Hustle, August: Osage, Mr. Banks or Wolf of Wall Street.

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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:47 pm

I wish I'd posted an official predictions list, because I would not have had Robert Redford on it. I've long doubted his candidacy (see: All is Lost), and it amazes me people are so shocked he was omitted. I was vacillating between DiCaprio and Phoenix for that spot; Whitaker was a surprise to me. Whether he can parlay this nomination into an Oscar nod remains to be seen, but I definitely think it's proof that The Butler hasn't fallen out of the Best Picture conversation the way many thought it would. The way I see Best Actor now is essentially four guys with pretty solid spots, and one spot that's essentially up for grabs.

I'd still rate Amy Adams an Oscar possibility (it's worth noting she was left out here last year too), but now I think she definitely has to be considered the one fighting to break in, given the extremely solid credentials of these five nominees.

SAG can sometimes hang on to D.O.A Oscar bait (Hitchcock, Conviction, Life as a House), so Brühl's nomination could very well be in that vein. I could easily see him being scrapped from this list come Oscar-time; tomorrow's nominations might tell if this recognition was a fluke or if he's really made a place in this race. Similarly, I thought it was pretty likely SAG would go for their longtime favorite Gandolfini, so I don't know if this tells us a lot, other than that his candidacy is definitely not blogger fantasy. I think this is a huge get for Barkhad Abdi.

I guess I don't view the Supporting Actress slate as being as in flux as some do. I think Lawrence, Nyong'o, Squibb, and Winfrey are all pretty good to go, with an open fifth spot, depending on whether Oscar buys the category fraud for Roberts. This is a case that REALLY annoys me -- not only is Roberts a humongous star in a major role, but attention for her is costing someone like Margo Martindale in the same film, the kind of actress for whom this award was created, and one whose career could get a huge boost by this kind of recognition. (I guess in this vein, even though I haven't seen his film, I'm glad Tom Hanks didn't double dip with a Supporting nomination.)

Dallas Buyers Club pretty much surprised everyone in the ensemble category. I wonder if we haven't been taking its Best Picture chances as seriously as we should. It's a mid-level movie, but a pretty solid mid-level movie, and may be running a lot closer alongside Saving Mr. Banks and The Butler in that race than previously anticipated.

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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:26 pm

Don't put the Globes past boosterism even if they HAVEN'T seen a film. And with a star like DiCaprio in Wolf of Wall Street, three is no chance in hell they won't nominate the film. That and they have ten spots to fill and with so many big contenders going comedy, Wolf has a better shot.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:51 am

OscarGuy wrote: American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks were seen or they wouldn't have shown up at all, but they'll need stronger pushes to get better totals. Both will make dramatic appearances at the Globe nominations tomorrow because those voters love sentimentalism (Banks) and stars (American Hustle).

The Globes are also voted on by a far smaller group, who can hold off until they've more or less all seen the films. I'd presume most of the (is it 90?) HFPA members will have seen Hustle, Her, even Wolf of Wall Street -- they probably didn't vote till a day or a few ago -- so their tally will be more representative of the full field of films (whch is to say, if Wolf is omitted, it means they didn't like it, not they didn't see it).

SAG, on the other hand...even when my wife was on the Nominating Committee -- back when the voting deadline was end of January -- we ran into people who, well on, hadn't seen alot of the films involved; not everyone can get to the screenings. Late releases are at a permanent disadvantage with SAG.

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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby Reza » Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:43 am

Here are the other nominees:

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
"All is Lost"
"Fast & Furious 6"
"Lone Survivor"
"Rush"
"The Wolverine"

TV AWARDS

TV DRAMA ENSEMBLE
"Boardwalk Empire"
"Breaking Bad"
"Downton Abbey"
"Game of Thrones"
"Homeland"

TV DRAMA ACTOR
Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
Jeff Daniels, "The Newsroom"
Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones"
Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards"

TV DRAMA ACTRESS
Claire Danes, "Homeland"
Anna Gunn, "Breaking Bad"
Jessica Lange, "American Horror Story: Coven"
Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey"
Kerry Washington, "Scandal"

TV COMEDY ENSEMBLE
"Arrested Development"
"The Big Bang Theory"
"Modern Family"
"30 Rock"
"Veep"

TV COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
Jason Bateman, "Arrested Development"
Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"

TV COMEDY ACTRESS
Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory"
Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"

TV MOVIE/MINI ACTOR
Matt Damon, "Behind the Candelabra"
Michael Douglas, "Behind the Candelabra"
Jeremy Irons, "The Hollow Crown"
Rob Lowe, "Killing Kennedy"
Al Pacino, "Phil Spector"

TV MOVIE/MINI ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, "Betty and Coretta"
Helena Bonham Carter, "Burton and Taylor"
Holly Hunter, "Top of the Lake"
Helen Mirren, "Phil Spector"
Elisabeth Moss, "Top of the Lake"

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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:36 am

Let's also recall that Robert Redford has only one line of dialogue in the film (I'm not counting his open narration). And unless they really play up Redfords desire to say more with less, his lack of theatrics may hurt is chances more than anything.

Paramount botched Wolf of Wall Street's release and this just shows how much better it might have been had they screened earlier or sent screeners...or even pushed it back to 2014 and given Scorsese more time to sculpt the film instead of rushing in the last few weeks. American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks were seen or they wouldn't have shown up at all, but they'll need stronger pushes to get better totals. Both will make dramatic appearances at the Globe nominations tomorrow because those voters love sentimentalism (Banks) and stars (American Hustle).
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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:25 am

The big surprise for me was Dallas Buyers Club in ensemble over Saving Mr. Banks, which is getting mixed to positive reviews. I think it will make the cut, but I've never bought into the idea that this is the film that will prevail at the Oscars.

The best actress line-up remains the toughest to crack. I don't see much changing between now and the Oscar nominations.

I'm not surprised by Redford's omission. As I have said, Hanks appears to be the most vulnerable, but the emphasis should be on "appears" with Dern and Redford also question marks though Dern seems to be less so now. The predicted double nod for Hanks was also a tough sell, though I thought it might be Captain Phillips, not Saving Mr. Banks for which he'd be left off the list just because the competition in the lead category is fiercer. I see either DiCaprio and/or Phoenix as more likely than Whitaker at replacing Redford and/or Hanks in the Oscar lineup which is still more than a month off.

It seems to be that Daniel Bruhl in the all but written off Rush probably benefits most from these nominations.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:08 am

Sonic Youth wrote:I assume you mean Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips, not Rush?

Fixed.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:03 am

It's hard to know if this list is definitive, or tilted due to certain long-term SAG tendencies: an inabillity (since the earlier deadline) to absorb many of the late releases, and a weakness for Harvey Weinstein.

Specifically, Ensemble has two Weinstein efforts that may or may not have best picture potential (I'd say The Butler is stronger than August, but the latter of course remains unreleased), and the most unexpected candidate of the day, Dallas Buyers Club. The latter may have benefitted from (apart from its two stellar lead performances) being out there during the peak screening/voter period. Alot of films that might have a stronger shot at best picure came along too late to get the kind of SAG attention they desired (even American Hustle, which got its Ensemble nod, fell short of expectation in individual categories). Since the best picture expansion, SAG has never missed more than 1 carryover -- but would you imagine any of Hairspray, 3:10 to Yuma or American Gangste would have made a field of 10 in 2007? And this year, with all the late releases, feels alot more like 2007.

I want to be fair to Saving Mr. Banks -- it, too, hasn't opened yet, and could be a victim of the same issues. But it has been pretty extensively screened/pushed, and it seems like the kind of movie SAG should have swooned for. That it couldn't get Ensemble, or the supposedly sure Hanks, is a dark omen, and suggests this was more blogger fantasy than anything else.

BJ and I are possibly the only people on earth not shocked by the Redford omission. He could still return at AMPAS, or someone else could get in past him. It would be a shame if, in a year with many fine lading male performances, Forrest Whitaker's mopey work were to steal a spot.

That actress line-up was of course easiest to predict, but, again, I think America Hustle's push is only beginning. Adams will, of course, need to show up at the Globes tomorrow.

The supporting categories are where the real fun is. Leto and Fassbender are likely set, but any or none of the other three could repeat at the Oscars. I like Abdi's chances alot -- he's the kind of uncertain candidate for whom SAG is a real boost. (by the way, Captain Phillips? Not so dead as people have been saying recently) Bruhl, on the ther hand, might be mostly benefitting from early-release syndrome.

And FilmFan is just right: all the supporting actress nominees could carry over, or only 2-3. Let's root for new names tomorrow at the Globes, to keep things in major flux.

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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby FilmFan720 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:37 am

The SAG Awards have always loved James Gandolfini, so you had to assume that he would make it in here. It bodes well for an Oscar nomination, but is not guaranteed.

The big winners here are Abdi and Squibb, both of whom could easily have been left off this list.

Could Redford be weaker than we assumed? Can we assume that Wolf of Wall Street was not seen by as many nominators as needed to be?

For Supporting Actress, I could see this being the Oscar list, and I could see two or even three of them being left off. What a fun year!

For those keeping track at home, Alec Baldwin and Edie Falco are now nominated for most SAG
nominations of all time, with 20 each!
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Re: SAG Nominations

Postby flipp525 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:21 am

As we've been saying, Supporting Actor still seems like the most in-flux category. Definitely potential for something interesting to sneak in at the Oscars. This breathed new life into a somewhat forgotten Barkhad Abdi campaign. And this seems to settle more clearly the James Gandolfini question. But what do we make of Tom Hanks missing out here?

Both Actress line-ups looks like they could repeat at the Oscars. Is there any scenario, though, where Oprah gets left off Supporting Actress? I'm happy that June Squibb made a much-needed appearance here.

That is one heck of a lineup for Best Actress. I'd say it rivals 2006's. Amy Adams and Adele Exarchopoulus are still not unheard of replacements.

Also, why not list the TV nominations?
Last edited by flipp525 on Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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