Thinking about SAG

For the films of 2013
User avatar
Posts: 5881
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Thinking about SAG

Postby flipp525 » Tue Dec 10, 2013 5:57 pm

mlrg wrote:They allways throw a nomination for someone who whas no chance for oscar (remember Hillary Swank two years ago?)

I have a feeling Harrison Ford will show up in the supporting actor category.

My guess for this year's random-but-not-totally-unsurprising nomination is Matthew McConaughey in Actor in a Supporting Role for Mud.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell

Posts: 3474
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 3:57 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Thinking about SAG

Postby FilmFan720 » Tue Dec 10, 2013 4:48 pm

American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
- Minor Myers, Jr.

Tenured Laureate
Posts: 7583
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am

Re: Thinking about SAG

Postby Sabin » Tue Dec 10, 2013 4:40 pm

I pretty much agree with anonymous, except I see Saving Mr. Banks making the cut for Best Ensemble over Lee Daniels' The Butler. I was going to say Christian Bale is likelier than Robert Reford (to me) for Best Actor, but I'm changing my mind to Leonardo DiCaprio. I'm going to predict that Bradley Cooper gets in over James Gandolfini in Best Supporting Actor. Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress looks boring/fine.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Posts: 1128
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Re: Thinking about SAG

Postby mlrg » Tue Dec 10, 2013 5:57 am

They allways throw a nomination for someone who whas no chance for oscar (remember Hillary Swank two years ago?)

I have a feeling Harrison Ford will show up in the supporting actor category.

Posts: 5300
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 10:03 pm
Location: Manila

Re: Thinking about SAG

Postby anonymous1980 » Tue Dec 10, 2013 12:35 am

My predictions:


Amy Adams, Christian Bale, Louis CK, Bradley Cooper, Jack Huston, Jennifer Lawrence, Alessandro Nivola and Jeremy Renner, American Hustle

Abigail Breslin, Chris Cooper, Benedict Cumberbatch, Juliette Lewis, Margo Martindale, Ewan McGregor, Dermot Mulroney, Julianne Nicholson, Sam Shepard, Julia Roberts, Meryl Streep and Misty Upham, August: Osage County

Mariah Carey, John Cusack, Jane Fonda, Cuba Gooding Jr., Terrence Howard, Lenny Kravitz, James Marsden, David Oyelowo, Vanessa Redgrave, Alan Rickman, Liev Schrieber, Forest Whitaker, Robin Williams and Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Dano, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender, Paul Giamatti, Lupita Nyong'o, Sarah Paulson, Brad Pitt and Alfre Woodard, 12 Years a Slave

Jon Bernthal, Kyle Chandler, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jean Dujardin, Christine Ebersole, Jon Favreau, Jonah Hill, Matthew McConaughey, Cristin Milioti, Rob Reiner and Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street

Bruce Dern as Woody Grant, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor as Solomon Northrup, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks as Capt. Richard Phillips, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey as Ron Woodroof, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford as Our Man, All Is Lost

Cate Blanchett as Jasmine, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock as Dr. Ryan Stone, Gravity
Judi Dench as Philomena Lee, Philomena
Meryl Streep as Violet Weston, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson as P.L. Travers, Saving Mr. Banks

Michael Fassbender as Edwin Epps, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini as Albert, Enough Said
Tom Hanks as Walt Disney, Saving Mr. Banks
Jonah Hill as Donnie Azoff, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto as Rayon, Dallas Buyers Club

Jennifer Lawrence as Rosalyn Rosenfeld, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o as Patsey, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts as Barbara Weston, August: Osage County
Octavia Spencer as Wanda, Fruitvale Station
June Squibb as Kate Grant, Nebraska

Mister Tee
Posts: 6651
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC

Thinking about SAG

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Dec 09, 2013 11:51 pm

The SAG Nominations might or might not tell us important things. Might, because SAG sometimes has a way of throwing in names not till then in the mix – as when John Hawkes appeared three years ago, or Demian Bichir and Jonah Hill a year later. Might not, because they’re also prone to propping up dull candidates who fail to make the Oscar list – Crowe in Cinderella Man, DiCaprio in J. Edgar. And this year, there’s the added wrinkle of wondering whether some possible contenders – esp. American Hustle and Wolf of Wall Street – were seen by enough on the nominating committee. (General thinking is, Hustle yes, Wolf no, but nobody knows for sure) So: don’t make too much of what happens…unless it’s interesting.

I think the hardest part is figuring out a slate for best ensemble cast. Normally we think of that as their best picture prize, but some prime best picture contenders this year are likely eliminated for the small size of their casts – Gravity, probably Her, maybe Captain Phillips and Philomena, as well. 12 Years a Slave will certainly contend, and, assuming sufficient screening, American Hustle, too. If Saving Mr. Banks is the heavyweight so many bloggers are claiming, it just about has to show up here. But after that, it’s fuzzier: the best-stocked casts are in movies that are, at best, on the fringe of best picture talk: August: Osage County, The Butler, even Prisoners. Voters will occasionally put a non-contending film on the list – Bridesmaids, Best Exotic Marigold – but there are limits. I feel like I need to predict Nebraska just to get something else with best picture cred on the list.

The major question about the leading acting categories will be, do the two set fields appear as scheduled, or will one of the late arrivals infiltrate? I think the most likely outcome is the ten we’re expecting – Dern/Ejiofor/Hanks/McConnaughey/Redford, Blanchett/Bullock/Dench/Streep/Thompson. If that’s the case, I think the possibility of an interloper – DiCaprio/Phoenix, Adams – still looms for the Oscar nominations. And if one of those names should turn up Wednesday, the race is scrambled more than we thought from the start.

There’s considerably more to learn from the supporting categories, because they’re far more unsettled. On the men’s side, only Leto and Fassbender seem totally certain – though Tom Hanks may be an easy, reflexive choice from this organization. After that, though, we’ll find out more arcane things: if James Gandolfini is an actual candidate (from what ought to be his peer group); if Barkad Abdi is more than a critics’ favorite; if people are buying into Will Forte’s category chicanery; if American Hustle is hot enough to bring Bradley Cooper along; if enough people saw Wolf of Wall Street to bring Jonah Hill along; if Daniel Bruhl still exists as an Oscar hopeful after his film’s complete collapse.

Among the women, we expect to see Lupita Nyong’o; Jennifer Lawrence is set, as well (even if not everyone caught up with the film, buzz will carry her in). June Squibb would seem a strong hopeful, but Payne actresses have been known to miss here. If Oprah is a genuine hopeful, and not just blogger fantasy, she pretty much needs to make an appearance up here. After that, it’s wait and wonder: will Octavia Spencer follow her NBR win with a nod? Will Julia Roberts’ category fraud (she’s on the SAG ballot in supporting) pay off? Will her legitimately supporting co-star Margo Martindale take her spot? Can a sleeper candidate – like Sally Hawkins – make an inroad?

Return to “86th Predictions and Precursors”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest