Mid-December Oscar Predictions

For the films of 2013
Big Magilla
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Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions

Post by Big Magilla »

Eric wrote:I mean, we are all in agreement that, despite all this talk of squeezing one out, the list of five names that have been at the top of every Oscar blogger's list for the last four months actually represents the most likely slate, right?
Yes. As I've said before, I don't think Adams or anyone else will break through but if they should happen, then...
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Eric
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Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions

Post by Eric »

I mean, we are all in agreement that, despite all this talk of squeezing one out, the list of five names that have been at the top of every Oscar blogger's list for the last four months actually represents the most likely slate, right?
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Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions

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flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:Best Actress - If Amy Adams or anyone else is going to upset the supposed top five, it's more likely Meryl Streep who will go for the poorly recived August: Osage County, not Sandra Bullock.
It would seem a rare event to me that a Tony-award winning stage role wouldn't at least be nominated (when was the last time that happened, just out of curiosity? Gwyneth in Proof). Meryl has eeked out an iffy nomination in equally stacked years (Music of the Heart in 1999, anyone?) I think it'll Bullock or even your precious Dench who will be bumped should Amy Adams make it in, Big Magilla.
Kate Winslet in Carnage.

Unless you include musicals, in which case Samantha Banks last year.

But this does feel different, as Streep is considered out greatest actress and Violet instantly became a classic role.
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Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions

Post by The Original BJ »

Maybe once people start seeing August: Osage County, they can tell me I'm crazy, but I find it very difficult to believe that actors won't completely eat up what Meryl Streep is doing in that movie. I think there will definitely be some detractors for her performance around here, but it's such a PERFORMANCE, from an actress who virtually has a placeholder spot kept for her on the Oscar ballot any time she does a movie, it's so hard for me to see her as the most vulnerable candidate. (I also think August: Osage County has a spot in the SAG Ensemble lineup.)

But, I've been wrong before, and in a tight race, someone has to get squeezed out, so as we keep saying, who knows.
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Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions

Post by flipp525 »

Big Magilla wrote:Best Actress - If Amy Adams or anyone else is going to upset the supposed top five, it's more likely Meryl Streep who will go for the poorly recived August: Osage County, not Sandra Bullock.
It would seem a rare event to me that a Tony-award winning stage role wouldn't at least be nominated (when was the last time that happened, just out of curiosity? Gwyneth in Proof?). Meryl has eeked out iffy nominations in equally stacked years (Music of the Heart in 1999, anyone?) I think it'll be Bullock or even your precious Dench who'll be bumped should Amy Adams make it in, Big Magilla.
Last edited by flipp525 on Mon Dec 09, 2013 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions

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ksrymy wrote:Everyone is overlooking the fact that Geoffrey Rush in a Holocaust movie is the definition of Oscar bait.
They'll change their tune if he's nominated for a SAG on Wednesday.

I know it's not a box office sensation, but it should play very well on screeners, which is how most of the Academy membership views films these days.
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Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions

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Everyone is overlooking the fact that Geoffrey Rush in a Holocaust movie is the definition of Oscar bait.
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Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions

Post by FilmFan720 »

Magilla, for a tenth nominee I think Blue Jasmine or Fruitvale Station are both more likely.

I do see August Osage County losing steam pretty quickly, but I think Streep can maybe still hold on.

I would also put Jonah Hill in a pretty secure slot. Gandolfini is the weak nominee, but I don't think Bruhl or Rush has the push behind them to overtake him. They will need some major awards recognition this week.
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Re: Mid-December Oscar Predictions

Post by Big Magilla »

My take on the top six categories.

If there is a tenth nominee for Best Picture it will be between Philomena and Dallas Buyers Club either one of which could bump Captain Phillips which seems to be losing steam from the nine.

Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix (Her) could be the one to bump Hanks rather than DiCaprio, although both could make it, but at whose expense?

Best Actress - If Amy Adams or anyone else is going to upset the supposed top five, it's more likely Meryl Streep who will go for the poorly recived August: Osage County, not Sandra Bullock.

Best Supporting Actor - I would be shocked if Fassbender, Leto or Hanks are left out, but the other two slots still seem to me to be up for grabs with Daniel Bruhl (Rush) and Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief) poised to overtake Gandolfini and Hill.

Best Supporting Actress - Lawrence and Nyong'o are fairly certain at this point. Margo Martindale has a chance of overtaking Julia "I deserve another Oscar nomination" Roberts if Streep is nominated in lead but the escalating popularity of Her would seem to put Scarlett Johnasson (Her) in serious contention of being the first voice actor to be nominated for an Oscar. Despite the fact that Oprah Winfrey has not placed in any of the critics' groups voting doesn't mean her legion of friends in the Academy won't vote for her, though I think she could be left out especially if Octavia Spencer continues to win critics' awards.

Best Director - quite possibly the five, but never underestimate the Coens. They could get in over either Russell or Scorsese
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Mid-December Oscar Predictions

Post by FilmFan720 »

Figured I would start a new thread. Here's how things look for right now, in my book:

BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Spike Jonze, her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughy, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, The Dallas Buyer’s Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
Epic
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
American Hustle
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave

BEST FILM EDITING
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
12 Years a Slave

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Book Thief
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

BEST SCORE
The Book Thief
Gravity
Monster’s University
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

BEST SONG
“In the Middle of the Night” from Lee Daniels’ The Butler
“Let it Go” from Frozen
“Rise Up” from Epic
“Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby
“The Moon Song” from her

BEST SOUND MIXING
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Pacific Rim
Rush

BEST SOUND EDITING
Captain Phillips
Frozen
Gravity
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness

BEST MAKEUP
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Oz: The Great and Powerful
Star Trek Into Darkness
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