Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

It looks like an interesting year, so I'm surprised I don't see any more predictions in here. In any case, here's my take:


Best Picture:

12 Years a Slave*
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Director:

Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave*
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actor

Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave*
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaghey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine*
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club*

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave*
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
June Squibb, Nebraska

Best Original Sceenplay

American Hustle*
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave*
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Animated Feature

Despicable Me 2
Epic
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises*

Best Foreign Language

The Broken Circle of Breakdown, Belgium
The Grandmaster, Hong Kong
The Great Beauty, Italy
The Hunt, Denmark*
The Notebook, Hungary

Interesting article by N.Y. Post's Lou Loumenick posted tonight handicaps the race with all the usual suspects for Best Picture, Actor and Actress except... Meryl Streep.

http://nypost.com/2013/12/09/does-gravi ... ure-oscar/

flipp525 wrote:

mlrg wrote:

Eric wrote:Conversely, I do see a little bit of play in the lead actor category at the moment, if only to make room for Phoenix. IIRC, best actress has traditionally been the least adventurous, least unpredictable category when it comes to surprise omissions.

Just ask Tilda Swinton two years ago. She had NBR, Globe, SAG and Bafta and missed the nomination

Which sucks because her performance in We Need To Talk About Kevin was astoundingly good.

Didn't Dennis Quaid have all (or most of) those as well and then missed out on an Oscar nod in '02?

Quaid missed the Bafta nomination

FilmFan720 wrote:

mlrg wrote:

Eric wrote:Conversely, I do see a little bit of play in the lead actor category at the moment, if only to make room for Phoenix. IIRC, best actress has traditionally been the least adventurous, least unpredictable category when it comes to surprise omissions.

Just ask Tilda Swinton two years ago. She had NBR, Globe, SAG and Bafta and missed the nomination

That could have been because she was mediocre in a horrible film...

No, she wasn't. If you've read the novel upon which the film is based, she perfectly encapsulated the character of Eva Khatchadourian. The only thing that was mediocre was the horribly miscast John C. Reilly whose part should've gone to someone like Greg Kinnear.

mlrg wrote:

Eric wrote:Conversely, I do see a little bit of play in the lead actor category at the moment, if only to make room for Phoenix. IIRC, best actress has traditionally been the least adventurous, least unpredictable category when it comes to surprise omissions.

Just ask Tilda Swinton two years ago. She had NBR, Globe, SAG and Bafta and missed the nomination

That could have been because she was mediocre in a horrible film...

mlrg wrote:

Eric wrote:Conversely, I do see a little bit of play in the lead actor category at the moment, if only to make room for Phoenix. IIRC, best actress has traditionally been the least adventurous, least unpredictable category when it comes to surprise omissions.

Just ask Tilda Swinton two years ago. She had NBR, Globe, SAG and Bafta and missed the nomination

Which sucks because her performance in We Need To Talk About Kevin was astoundingly good.

Didn't Dennis Quaid have all (or most of) those as well and then missed out on an Oscar nod in '02?

Eric wrote:Conversely, I do see a little bit of play in the lead actor category at the moment, if only to make room for Phoenix. IIRC, best actress has traditionally been the least adventurous, least unpredictable category when it comes to surprise omissions.

Just ask Tilda Swinton two years ago. She had NBR, Globe, SAG and Bafta and missed the nomination

The Original BJ wrote:I'm not entirely sure where to put this, but I was just looking at dates for upcoming awards, and learned that the Broadcast Film Critics won't be announcing their nominations until next week...AFTER SAG and the HFPA have announced their slates.

In my memory, the Broadcasters have always announced first. So...basically, this year they are waiting to see how these other groups shake down before voting, to make sure they can be as Oscar-predictive as possible. These people are utterly shameless.

I noticed that as well. The rosier view is that at least now their "predictions" will reflect the critical tumult of the past week (and whatever comes from SAG), rather than being simply a reflection of pre-release buzz. Without them pushing, say, a War Horse or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, it's possible films of that ilk will die quicker, firmer deaths, and space will be open for late openers that came as more a surprise.

I'm not entirely sure where to put this, but I was just looking at dates for upcoming awards, and learned that the Broadcast Film Critics won't be announcing their nominations until next week...AFTER SAG and the HFPA have announced their slates.

In my memory, the Broadcasters have always announced first. So...basically, this year they are waiting to see how these other groups shake down before voting, to make sure they can be as Oscar-predictive as possible. These people are utterly shameless.

ksrymy wrote:Does anyone actually think AMPAS will embrace the Kechiche film? I think they are much more likely to play it safely with The Hunt or The Great Beauty.

If a remember correctly, Blue Is The Warmest Color was not submitted by France and therefore cannot be nomiated.

The Original BJ wrote:Maybe once people start seeing August: Osage County, they can tell me I'm crazy, but I find it very difficult to believe that actors won't completely eat up what Meryl Streep is doing in that movie. I think there will definitely be some detractors for her performance around here, but it's such a PERFORMANCE, from an actress who virtually has a placeholder spot kept for her on the Oscar ballot any time she does a movie, it's so hard for me to see her as the most vulnerable candidate. (I also think August: Osage County has a spot in the SAG Ensemble lineup.)

But, I've been wrong before, and in a tight race, someone has to get squeezed out, so as we keep saying, who knows.

The thing is, in recent years one had often problems in finding FIVE performances which could be nominated - especially for Best Actress. This year, both Best Actress and, even more, Best Actor have more than five solid possible nominees (this must have happened often in the golden period of American cinema, by the way - before most of us were born), so whoever gets left out will always be, in some ways, surprising. Maybe even shocking - certainly more than the quite predictable John Hawkes snub last year. But then there are, of course, only five slots.

And by the way it's very possible that in the end Best Actress will be as predicted for months now - if only because Amy Adams may be less strong than it seems, and Adele Exarchopoulos is, well, anything that the Academy doesnt want: too young, too foreign, too sexual, too controversial, too unknown... Too lesbian, even.

But if one of the predicted five has to fall, I honestly doubt that it could be Sandra Bullock, a very popular actress who's the star of THE movie of the year (not according to me, of course, but according to most American critics). Yes, it has happened before - Leonardo Di Caprio in Titanic comes to mind, but Bullock is the ONLY star of her movie. So this leaves Thompson, Dench and Streep, and I feel that the one who's in the least-respected movie could have problems.

Does anyone actually think AMPAS will embrace the Kechiche film? I think they are much more likely to play it safely with The Hunt or The Great Beauty.

Eric wrote: IIRC, best actress has traditionally been the least adventurous, least unpredictable category when it comes to surprise omissions.

For the most part -- certainly in a year like 2005 or 2008. But, last year, Helen Mirren in Hitchcock seemed right up their lazy alley, and they went for (take your pick) Riva/Wallis instead.

I guess I'd be one of those who think Adams-in-for-someone is about even with The Five as far as likelihood. Though of course I haven't seen American Hustle (or, for that matter, anyone beyond Blanchett/Bullock/Exarchopoulos).

SAG will be an early signal -- if they don't go for The Five, I doubt AMPAS will. Conversely, Adams missing there isn't necessarily Oscar-disqualifying.

I just think it would be hard for the Academy to recognize supporting sweetheart Adams in a leading role. That, along with the strong slate of winners likely to be nominated, makes me think she doesn't stand a chance.

Conversely, I do see a little bit of play in the lead actor category at the moment, if only to make room for Phoenix. IIRC, best actress has traditionally been the least adventurous, least unpredictable category when it comes to surprise omissions.