LA Predictions

For the films of 2013
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Big Magilla
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Re: LA Predictions

Post by Big Magilla »

Mister Tee wrote: Magilla, LA replicated NBR on Letters from Iwo Jima, which wasn't a consensus choice.
Damn. Got me again. What is it, 3 times this week?
You may be getting old, but I'm already there!
Okri
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Re: LA Predictions

Post by Okri »

Tee, next it'll be the Kansas Critics Circle Awards, which are actually older than the LA Film critics!

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave (ru: Nebraska)
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron (ru: Martin Scorsese)
Best Screenplay: Nebraska (ru: The Wolf of Wall Street)

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (Bruce Dern)
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett (Barbara Sukowa)
Best Supporting Actor: James Gandolfini (Will Forte)
Best Supporting Actress: Lea Seydoux (Scarlett Johansson)

Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty (Blue is the Warmest Colour)
Best Documentary: Stories We Tell (At Berkeley)

Best Editing: The Wolf of Wall Street (Her)
Best Design: Her (Gravity)
Best Cinematography: 12 Years a Slave (Nebraska)
Best Music: Nebraska (Gravity)
Mister Tee
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Re: LA Predictions

Post by Mister Tee »

Eric wrote:Mark Harris pointed out that this group, more than any other major group, has a hard-on for Alexander Payne -- About Schmidt, Sideways and The Descendants all won Best Film here -- so I wouldn't be knocked flat to see a strong showing for Nebraska. But, yes, I'd much more like to see Her solidify its case, maybe even with an award for Phoenix's performance (though, given they just cited him last year, that's probably unlikely).
It was only the vast number of candidates that kept me from putting Nebraska in the best film conversation, knowing their history.

A lot of potential acting candidates are recent LA winners -- Lawrence and Adams both won here last year, Fassbender the year prior.

Magilla, LA replicated NBR on Letters from Iwo Jima, which wasn't a consensus choice.
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Eric
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Re: LA Predictions

Post by Eric »

Mark Harris pointed out that this group, more than any other major group, has a hard-on for Alexander Payne -- About Schmidt, Sideways and The Descendants all won Best Film here -- so I wouldn't be knocked flat to see a strong showing for Nebraska. But, yes, I'd much more like to see Her solidify its case, maybe even with an award for Phoenix's performance (though, given they just cited him last year, that's probably unlikely).

As for best actress -- and taking into consideration that hive-mind is likely nowhere near as big a factor in the actual voting as we'd like to believe -- I presume L.A. realizes that they might represent one of the very last viable chances to introduce any alternative to the Blanchett/Bullock/Streep/Thompson/Dench line-up as has been pre-decreed by every Oscar blogger in christendom. With that in mind, I'm going all-in for Adele here, too. It wouldn't be a vote against Blanchett, per se, but a vote against the other four.
Last edited by Eric on Sat Dec 07, 2013 6:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Big Magilla
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Re: LA Predictions

Post by Big Magilla »

LA is an arbitrary group. Unless there's a consensus winner, which some of us thought 12 Years a Slave would be, they go out on a limb to vote for something unexpected. When they follow NY, they make sure they vote for something else unless, again, it's a consensus pick. As far as I know without checking, they've never agreed with the NBR except, once again, on a consensus choice. This year may be different, especially since it's the NBR that has voted for something totally unexpected of them. Her is the kind of unusual choice one would expect from L.A. It's my prediction as well.

Beyond that, I haven't a clue as to what they will do.
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LA Predictions

Post by Mister Tee »

Given all the possibilities this year, I expect LA to go out of its way not to replicate NY. The problem is, there are all sorts of films they could choose even within that parameter.

For the record, I expect, by the time LA votes tomorrow, 12 Years a Slave will have won a best picture prize, from the Boston group. (For okri: I'm weakening in my old age, and am thisclose to considering Boston a legitimate critics' group)

Anyway, my guesses for LA tomorrow.

Film: Her
(ru: Gravity)

Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor
(ru: Matthew McConnaughey)

Actress: Adele Exarchopoulos or Paulina Garcia
(ru: Cate Blanchett)
(there's some dispute over whether Garcia is eligible. If she is, she's perfectly in line with LA's picks of late. But in either case, I expect a subtitled actress to run first and Blanchett second)

Sup. Actor: Jonah Hill
(ru: Jared Leto)

Sup. Actress: June Squibb
(ru: Lea Seydoux)

Director: Alfonso Cuaron
(ru: Martin Scorsese)

Screenplay: Her
(ru: Nebraska)

Cinematography: Gravity
(ru: Inside Llewyn Davis)

Design: Inside Llewyn Davis
(ru: 12 Years a Slave)

Music: Inside Llewyn Davis
(ru: Nebraska)

Editing: Captain Phillips
(ru: The Wolf of Wall Street)

Foreign-Language Film: Blue Is the Warmest Color
(ru: The Great Beauty)

Non-Fiction: The Act of Killing
(ru: At Berkeley)

Animated Feature: The Wind Rises
(ru: Frozen)

New Generation: Lake Bell
(ru: Ryan Coogler)
...unless they decide to include actors, as they sometimes do, in which case this is where Adele or Lupita Nyong'o might turn up
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