I think the New York setting of Inside Llewyn Davis might help it with the NYFCC. If the LAFCA can favor productions set in Los Angeles, the NYFCC can do the same with New York.
It may have been an overall lackluster year for animated films, but I don't think you'll find anyone who agrees that Frozen and The Wind Rises are easily among the best of recent years. I'm less enthused about Frozen, but The Wind Rises is a powerful swan song, perhaps one of history's best. That it's Miyazaki's only film with adults as protagonists (they are briefly youths) makes it stand out from the pack. Add in the fact that's it's something of a historical epic trying to find beauty in the horrors of war and I'd be very disappointed if Frozen beat it for Best Animated Feature.
Since most people won't get to see the Miyazaki until it releases in February, it will require support from critics to get going.
What I'm Looking for from the NY Film Critics
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OscarGuy
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Re: What I'm Looking for from the NY Film Critics
Wesley Lovell
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Mister Tee
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What I'm Looking for from the NY Film Critics
I suppose I could have put this in the NYFF prediction thread, but it might have got buried there.
What dws said in the prediction thread is correct, that NY on the whole stays within mainstream parameters -- give or take a Rachel Weisz – which is what makes their choices worth looking at. Of course I’m interested in their results simply for their kicking off the actual “season”, but a number of specific things I’ll be looking for:
Does the year really boil town to the since-Telluride duopoly of 12 Years/Gravity, or might one of the not-out-in-the-market-yet options – Inside Llewyn Davis, Her, The Wolf of Wall Street – crash the party?
If it is just 12 Years/Gravity, might there be an attempt to give both films something to brag about? A great many at Awards Daily seem to be predicting 12 Years for film, Cuaron for director – which as we know would not be a typical AMPAS breakdown, but I wonder if a concerted critical attempt to establish a narrative (“12 Years is a powerful film, but you can’t deny Cuaron’s visual pyrotechnics”) might have some effect. Soderbergh being set up at the year’s dominant director won him an Oscar in the end, without his film taking best picture. And, long long ago, Mike Nichols got his Graduate prize without ever being seriously in the best picture discussion, simply because the idea of him as the year’s directorial wunderkind got established early.
Will the blogger position – that Ejiofor’s 12 Years performance is so transcendent he’ll sweep the critics’ polls – hold up in voting, or will critics spread the wealth among the many solid candidates available (Redford, Dern, Phoenix, McConnaughey, DiCaprio)?
Magilla’s Dench obsession aside (he’s found his Les Miz for 2013!), I think most would assume Blanchett to be the dominant best actress choice among English-speaking performances. The question is, will critics give her a Helen Mirren-type run, or dilute the impact by going with someone foreign? (Exarchopoulos the most obvious choice)
Are the early favorites for the supporting prizes – Fassbender & Leto among men, Nyong’o and Squibb in the female division -- the be-all end-all for the year, or are late/surprise candidates going to be thrown in? Could Seydoux win? Might Oprah (who most assume will be more a BFCA/SAG type candidate) show up here and strengthen her case?
Will the critics care about animated feature at all in this lackluster year? And, if they should, will they do their auteurist best for Miyazaki, or throw in with Frozen and make Disney an even bigger favorite?
In cinematography: will they turn up their noses at the CGI-aided work of Gravity…or will the Lubezki name be enough to win them over? If they do look for an alternative, what? -- 12 Years?
What dws said in the prediction thread is correct, that NY on the whole stays within mainstream parameters -- give or take a Rachel Weisz – which is what makes their choices worth looking at. Of course I’m interested in their results simply for their kicking off the actual “season”, but a number of specific things I’ll be looking for:
Does the year really boil town to the since-Telluride duopoly of 12 Years/Gravity, or might one of the not-out-in-the-market-yet options – Inside Llewyn Davis, Her, The Wolf of Wall Street – crash the party?
If it is just 12 Years/Gravity, might there be an attempt to give both films something to brag about? A great many at Awards Daily seem to be predicting 12 Years for film, Cuaron for director – which as we know would not be a typical AMPAS breakdown, but I wonder if a concerted critical attempt to establish a narrative (“12 Years is a powerful film, but you can’t deny Cuaron’s visual pyrotechnics”) might have some effect. Soderbergh being set up at the year’s dominant director won him an Oscar in the end, without his film taking best picture. And, long long ago, Mike Nichols got his Graduate prize without ever being seriously in the best picture discussion, simply because the idea of him as the year’s directorial wunderkind got established early.
Will the blogger position – that Ejiofor’s 12 Years performance is so transcendent he’ll sweep the critics’ polls – hold up in voting, or will critics spread the wealth among the many solid candidates available (Redford, Dern, Phoenix, McConnaughey, DiCaprio)?
Magilla’s Dench obsession aside (he’s found his Les Miz for 2013!), I think most would assume Blanchett to be the dominant best actress choice among English-speaking performances. The question is, will critics give her a Helen Mirren-type run, or dilute the impact by going with someone foreign? (Exarchopoulos the most obvious choice)
Are the early favorites for the supporting prizes – Fassbender & Leto among men, Nyong’o and Squibb in the female division -- the be-all end-all for the year, or are late/surprise candidates going to be thrown in? Could Seydoux win? Might Oprah (who most assume will be more a BFCA/SAG type candidate) show up here and strengthen her case?
Will the critics care about animated feature at all in this lackluster year? And, if they should, will they do their auteurist best for Miyazaki, or throw in with Frozen and make Disney an even bigger favorite?
In cinematography: will they turn up their noses at the CGI-aided work of Gravity…or will the Lubezki name be enough to win them over? If they do look for an alternative, what? -- 12 Years?