State of the Race, November 2nd Report

[Sabin]

Were I to make my predictions today:

Best Picture
Lose The Butler, add Her.

Best Director
Lose Greengrass, add Russell.

Best Actress
Lose Bullock, add Adams.

Best Supporting Actor
Lose Gandolfini, add Forte (placeholder for someone else)

Best Supporting Actress
Lose Winfrey, add Hawkins.

Best Original Screenplay
For whatever reason, I didn't include Spike Jonze's Her.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Lose Philomena, add August, Osage County.

Best Original Score
Lose Philomena, add Saving Mr. Banks.

Best Cinematography
Lose Captain Phillips, add Nebraska.

Best Film Editing
Lose Nebraska, add American Hustle.

[Sabin]

Best Picture
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actor
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwitel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers’ Club

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage Country
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Best Supporting Actor
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers’ Club

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer, American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay
Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope, Philomena
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, & Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Terrene Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Henry Jackman, Captain Phillips
Mark Orton, Nebraska
John Williams, The Book Thief
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave

Best Original Song
“Amen”, All is Lost
“I See Fire”, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
“Let It Go”, Frozen
“The Moon Song”, Her
“Young and Beautiful”, The Great Gatsby

Best Cinematography
Barry Ackroyd, Captain Phillips
Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years a Slave
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Emmanuel Lubeszki, Gravity
Rodrigo Prieto, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Film Editing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Production Design
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Oz the Great and Powerful
12 Years a Slave

Best Costume Design
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Oz, The Great and Powerful
12 Years a Slave

Best Makeup
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
12 Years a Slave

Best Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Sound Effects
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Man of Steel
Rush

Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Man of Steel
Oz, The Great and Powerful
Pacific Rim

[anonymous1980]

Let me get in my pre-precursor Oscar predictions in:

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

American Hustle (Columbia) Megan Ellison, Charles Roven and Jonathan Gordon (producers)

August: Osage County (The Weinstein Company.) Harvey Weinstein, George Clooney and Grant Heslov (producers).

Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics) Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum and Edward Walson (producers).

Captain Phillips (Columbia/Sony Pictures) Dana Brunetti, Scott Rudin and Michael De Luca (producers)

Gravity (Warner Bros.) Alfonso Cuaron and David Heyman (producers)

Nebraska (Paramount Vantage) Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa (producers)

Saving Mr. Banks (Walt Disney Pictures) Ian Collie, Allison Owen and Philip Steuer (producers).

12 Years a Slave (20th Century Fox) Brad Pitt, Steve McQueen and Arnon Milchan (producers)

The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount) Martin Scorsese, Leonardo DiCaprio and Riza Aziz (producers).

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August:l Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler

BEST SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN

American Hustle
written by David O. Russell and Eric Singer

Blue Jasmine
written by Woody Allen

Enough Said
written by Nicole Holofcener

Inside Llewyn Davis
written by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Nebraska
written by Bob Nelson

BEST SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED or PUBLISHED

August, Osage County
screenplay by Tracy Letts
based on his play.

Before Midnight
screenplay by Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy
based on the previous films.

Blue is the Warmest Color
screenplay by Abdellatif Kechiche and Ghalia Lacroix
based on the comic book by Julie Maroh

12 Years a Slave
screenplay by John Ridley
based on the book by Solomon Northrup

The Wolf of Wall Street
screenplay by Terence Winter
based on the book by Jordan Belfort

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Barry Ackroyd, Captain Phillips
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Anthony Dod Mantle, Rush
Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years a Slave
Rodrigo Prieto, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN

Gravity
Andy Nicholson (production design) & Rosie Goodwin (set decoration)

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Dan Hennah (production design) & Ra Vincent (set decoration)

Oz: The Great and Powerful
Robert Stromberg (production design) & Nancy Haigh (set decoration)

Saving Mr. Banks
Michael Corenblith (production design) & Susan Benjamin (set decoration)

12 Years a Slave
Adam Stockhausen (production design) & Alice Baker (set decoration)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuaron and Marc Sanger, Gravity
Mike Hill and Dan Hanley, Rush
Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave
Thelma Schoonmaker, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
John Williams, The Book Thief
Christophe Beck, Frozen
Steven Price, Gravity
Thomas Newman, Saving Mr. Banks
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG

"Amen", All Is Lost
music & lyrics by Alex Ebert

"I See Fire", The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
music & lyrics Ed Sheeran

"Let It Go", Frozen
music by Robert Lopez & lyrics by Kristin Anderson-Lopez

"Young and Beautiful", The Great Gatsby
music & lyrics by Lana del Ray and Rick Nowels

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby
Trish Summerville, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Gary Jones, Oz: The Great and Powerful
Daniel Orlandi, Saving Mr. Banks
Patricia Norris, 12 Years A Slave

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Steve Boedekker and Brandon Proctor, All is Lost
Chris Burdon, Mike Prestwood Smith, Mark Taylor and Chris Munro, Captain Phillips
Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Skip Lievsay and Chris Munro, Gravity
Stefan Korte and Martin Steyer, Rush
Shayna Brown, Ryan Collins, Jon Vogl, Leslie Shatz, 12 Years A Slave

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Oliver Tarney, Captain Phillips
Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Mark P. Stoeckinger, Iron Man Three
Scott Martin Gershin, Pacific Rim
Frank Kruse, Rush

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Tim Webber, Neil Corbould, Chris Lawrence and Dadi Einarrson, Gravity
Joe Letteri, Jeff Capogreco, Matt Aitken and Eric Saindon, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Christopher Townsend, Erik Nash, Matt Aikten and Dan Sudick, Iron Man Three
Scott Stokdyk, John Frazier, Troy Saliba and J.J. Blumenkranz, Oz: The Great and Powerful
John Knoll, James E. Price, Clay Pinney and Hal Hickel, Pacific Rim

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
Mark Coulier and Fae Hammond, Rush
Clinton Wayne, Debra Denson and Robert L. Stevenson, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Ma Kalaadevi Ananda and Adruitha Lee, 12 Years A Slave

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Despicable Me 2 (Universal) Pierre Coffin and Chris Renaud
Ernest & Celestine (GKids/Studio Canal) Stephan Aubier
Frozen (Disney) Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee
Monsters University (PIXAR/Disney) Dan Scanlon
The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibli/Disney) Hayao Miyazaki

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Great Beauty (Italy) Paolo Sorrentino, director
The Hunt (Denmark) Thomas Vinterberg, director
Ilo-Ilo (Singapore) Anthony Chen, director
The Past (Iran) Asghar Farhadi, director
Wadjda (Saudi Arabia) Haifaa al-Mansour, director

[nightwingnova]

While Philomena is no great shakes, I now get why Mister Tee is so down on nuns. The movie weighs down heavily against them and the Catholic Church.

Two things are quite worthy: first, Steve Coogan gives quite a complex performance in the role of the journalist aiding in the search for the long-lost son.
But it is Judi Dench who is supreme here. She takes a simple character and gives it extraordinary depth, nuance and complexity. She is amazing and magnificent.

[Reza]

You know there's wiggle room when Barkhad Abdi is listed as one of the three frontrunners.

Barkhad Abidi? They are really pushing it.

[Eric]

And the only door it has its foot in -- best actress -- is atypically crowded. More specifically and even more atypically, it's crowded with returning vets.

I just took a closer look at that Entertainment Weekly spread and just now realized that the supporting categories are still both in free-for-all state, with WTF citations for George Clooney, Melissa Leo (worst performance of the film, unless they meant Olympus Has Fallen), Melonie Diaz ... You know there's wiggle room when Barkhad Abdi is listed as one of the three frontrunners.

[FilmFan720]

It wasn't until OscarGuy just posted that I realized -- a Best Picture nomination for Blue is the Warmest Color technically would be the first for an NC-17 film, right? (As opposed to X.)

And I agree with his opinion -- Amour was a painful movie, but also one that had to have appealed to older voters as well as the hip cineaste claque. Blue is much less "difficult" movie, but features hugely graphic sex scenes that I imagine could be a turn off to at least some of those voters that helped push Amour onto the ballot in so many categories.

I think Blue could pop up somewhere -- I think its best shot is with the writers -- but I don't know that Amour is necessarily the strongest precedent for predicting how well Blue will do. (Also, I think Amour is a more fully successful movie overall than Blue.)

Amour also had a couple of other clear advantages over Blue.... It was a more "accessible" film from a very highly regarded and honored international director, someone many people would put on their lists of greatest living filmmakers. It also had one assured nomination in Emmanuelle Riva, who had critics prizes, a great story and legendary status. Blue doesn't seem to have either of those feet in the door, which cannot help.

[ksrymy]

I see Ejiofor as the least assured of the acting potential nominees to win. I also think Fassbender's bubble. Nyong'o is becoming something of a cause-celebre for people. I've heard name mentioned most often.

See, I see Ejiofor as the most secure. He gives the film's best performance. It wouldn't surprise me is Fassbender were snubbed again, but his role is just a lot of yelling. Nyong'o will only be nominated because she is an unknown and also because she cries, gets raped, cries, gets viciously whipped, and cries some more. Much like Watts last yeat, she just cries and screams a lot.

All three will be nominated though.

[OscarGuy]

The film 12 Years is most being compared to is Schindler's List. Many of us, at the time, had started out thinking that it would carry two acting awards, but lost both. I could see the same thing happening here. I see Ejiofor as the least assured of the acting potential nominees to win. I also think Fassbender's bubble. Nyong'o is becoming something of a cause-celebre for people. I've heard name mentioned most often.

So, a scenario of Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Screenplay and some tech awards would fit perfectly into the Oscar statistics.

[Big Magilla]

Or said another way, precedent would favor another winner for Best Picture. However, records were made to be broken. Even with just two acting wins (Ejiofor, Nyong'o), it would make history as the first film for which two black actors win.

[Mister Tee]

I read this on another site, and it falls into the category of "statistic that's interesting, but hardly binding":

What many are predicting for 12 Years a Slave -- winning Film/Director/Screenplay and three acting awards -- is unprecedented. The only two films to win three acting prizes (Streetcar and Network) failed at both film and director; Network did take screenplay.

Now, if you were to amend that to just taking two acting awards, there is substantial precedent -- but it's precedent mostly found in the distant past. Specifically: in the 50 year period 1934-1983, ten films won Film/Director/Screenplay and two acting trophies. (So you don't have to look them up: It Happened One Night, Gone with the Wind, Mrs. Miniver, Going My Way, The Best Years of Our Lives, From Here to Eternity, On the Waterfront, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Kramer vs. Kramer, Terms of Endearment) But in the 29 years since, only Silence of the Lambs has been added to that list.

So...even predicting a notch less for 12 Years is expecting it to do something not much seen nowadays. As I said: a precedent that can be summarily broken...but one of which people ought to be aware.

The question hovering around Philomena for me is, will Harvey make it his number one priority? Harvey's in a bizarre spot this year: he's got four film to potentially promote for major prizes, but beats me which is strongest of them. Fruitvale got maybe the best reviews, but is a little indie that fizzled at the box office. The Butler did major business, but isn't seen as much more than well-intentioned uplift (and it looks kind of lame next to 12 Years). August: Osage County might turn into a box-office hit, given the cast, and the play has a pedigree...but reviews were on the soft side, and, worst of all, the late release means we don't know how big audiences will be until much of the voting (certainly all precursor voting) will have already taken place. It may be Harvey will see Philomena, assuming it does well in its late November release, as his most likely to succeed project. And we all know when Harvey sets his sights like that, he frequently gets what he wants.

[Big Magilla]

Nobody has mentioned Ralph Fiennes for the film where he plays Dickens. It is out on December 25 so should get a qualifying run. Is he in the running?

The Invisible Woman didn't generate much noise out of Toronto. Whatever little notice it did get went to Felicity Jones in the title role. Lionsgate reportedly wanted to run a Supporting Actress campaign for her, but she refused to go along, insisting she should be campaigned for lead or not at all.

[FilmFan720]

On paper, at least, Amy Adams would be a strong candidate. She is the most nominated actor of the past decade, the movie seems to be Sony's horse in the race, and it is coming from a director whose last two films have led to 7 acting nominations and three wins...it seems like Adams is going to win one of these years, so why not this year?

[Eric]

Almost all of Amy Adams' nominations have come for being inadequate in Oscar-baity films, so if she's underwhelming in American Hustle, history suggests she'll likely get a nod for that too.

[Reza]

Nobody has mentioned Ralph Fiennes for the film where he plays Dickens. It is out on December 25 so should get a qualifying run. Is he in the running?