State of the Race, November 2nd Report

[The Original BJ]

It wasn't until OscarGuy just posted that I realized -- a Best Picture nomination for Blue is the Warmest Color technically would be the first for an NC-17 film, right? (As opposed to X.)

And I agree with his opinion -- Amour was a painful movie, but also one that had to have appealed to older voters as well as the hip cineaste claque. Blue is much less "difficult" movie, but features hugely graphic sex scenes that I imagine could be a turn off to at least some of those voters that helped push Amour onto the ballot in so many categories.

I think Blue could pop up somewhere -- I think its best shot is with the writers -- but I don't know that Amour is necessarily the strongest precedent for predicting how well Blue will do. (Also, I think Amour is a more fully successful movie overall than Blue.)

[OscarGuy]

There's another huge difference between Amour and Blue. Amour was about an elderly couple dealing with the end of their lives. Blue is about young lesbian love. I'm not even going to comment on how I think the lesbian element of Blue may be its undoing because I think the Academy has progressed since Brokeback. The problem is the NC-17 and the lesbian sex scenes. What supposedly sunk Brokeback is the gay sex scene. What sunk Shame's chances for nominations at least for acting was its rough sex scenes. The Academy does not like sex and have been resistent to its charms for a very long time. I think that rating alone will be the factor that ultimately keeps the film out of most categories.

And the Academy has a more potent foreign film to follow this year in The Hunt, which may get more love and attention from critics than Blue.

[Eric]

It would not surprise me to see some sort of unified (not "organized," per se) critics'-awards movement in favor of one or both of them. I guess I'd argue there's more leeway in supporting actress for Seydoux (given I don't think Lupita Nyong'o is anywhere near as invincible a contender as many others see her to be), but such "statements" are made in the lead categories. Also, best actress has in recent years been the category most prone to selections leagues to the left of the Oscar/GG/BFCA pool (especially from the LAFCA). So if they're not quite feeling peachy on Blanchett ...

[ITALIANO]

I
Whilst I haven't seen BISWC I would have assumed that Abedellatif Kechiche, based on his previous 4 films, is pretty far removed from the Academy's tastes.

He is. It's probably just wishful thinking - at least for me. It's true that Amour, last year, also seemed too tough for the Academy's tastes, yet got five important nominations. Blue is actually less tough, and more emotionally powerful, than Amour- but it's also about sex, a subject which might prove too divisive. Anyway, it will certainly need a help from the critics' prizes to even just hope to get a few nods.

[Precious Doll]

I'm surprised to see Blue is the Warmest Colour making so many prediction lists.

Whilst I haven't seen BISWC I would have assumed that Abedellatif Kechiche, based on his previous 4 films, is pretty far removed from the Academy's tastes.

For those not familiar with his work, they are all worth seeking out, particularly The Secret of the Grain and the poorly (unjustly) received Black Venus.

[OscarGuy]

The only thing that may trump that concept is that the music branch loves loud, bombastic scores, no matter how well used (or in some cases poorly used) the score is. That goes in Gravity's favor. It's a pulsating, integral use of score that the music branch would be hard-pressed to ignore and if you think the branch has gotten flack over the years for its many idiotic rule changes, they're in for something much stronger and more damaging if they ignore Gravity. That score is one of the most frequently cited elements of the film's success.

[Eric]

Isn't the Gravity score exactly the kind of music -- and written by exactly the kind of newbie composer -- that the music branch leaves off, undoubtedly pissing off everyone?

I'd argue it's not quite idiosyncratic enough to qualify for the annual Jonny Greenwood Memorial Snubee Of The Year honors. But, yes, the music branch is probably among the most cliquish of them all, so I'd bet on music score being one of Gravity's most conspicuous snubs.

[ITALIANO]

the reason I didn't highlight Lea Seydoux's chances is purely historical. We've had many many lead performances in foreign films receive nominations (including just last year)...but Valentina Cortese remains the sole such supporting nominee (not counting Berenice Bejo, because the silent factor made language irrelevant -- the title cards weren't done with subtitles). Maybe Seydoux's forays into American films will help (as Cortese's Hollywood work probably did). But it's still something I'll have to see happen to believe.

You are right. And I don't think it will happen either - unless she gets a relevant number of critics' prizes (but those will mostly go to the girl from the McQueen movie). What I meant is that, ironically, that could have been the easiest category for the movie to get it - easier than Best Actress and Best Director even.

[Mister Tee]

To address a few points:

I'll have a better take on Blue is the Warmest Color after I see it (should be in the next week or two), but 1) Amour was viewed as just as unlikely a best picture nominee last year at this point; and 2) the reason I didn't highlight Lea Seydoux's chances is purely historical. We've had many many lead performances in foreign films receive nominations (including just last year)...but Valentina Cortese remains the sole such supporting nominee (not counting Berenice Bejo, because the silent factor made language irrelevant -- the title cards weren't done with subtitles). Maybe Seydoux's forays into American films will help (as Cortese's Hollywood work probably did). But it's still something I'll have to see happen to believe.

As for Kekiche's somewhat boorish behavior -- I tend to doubt that's the sort of thing that matters to the small number of directors who'd be citing him. They might even admire him for it!

I figure the failure of voters to pick The Hobbit for makeup last year tells us they're not taking it as a serious awards entry anymore. (By most of them, it's not Episode 2 -- it's Episode 5) Oh, and let me share a wonderful tweet I chanced upon today: "Daylight savings time gave us an extra hour today. It's like a day directed by Peter Jackson"

[mlrg]

my winner predictions as of today

picture: 12 Years a Slave
director: Steve McQueen
actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor
actress: Cate Blanchett
sup actor: Michael Fassbender
sup actress: Oprah Winfrey

[ksrymy]

I think you all are still too wrapped up in Amour fever to realize that Blue is the Warmest Colour doesn't really stand a shot.

[Big Magilla]

There are so many prognosticators now that predictions aren't much fun at all anymore.

Nowadays it isn't really the Oscars that they are predicting, but the precursors which in turn they think/hope will influence Oscar votes. The failure of Brokeback Mountain to win its predicted Best Picture Oscar may have seemed like a fluke, but failure of The Social Network to win just a few years later should have taught them a lesson. Oscar, with the long-ago exception of Midnight Cowboy will go for the safest respectable nominee. They'll take edgy if it's sugar-coated like Slumdog Millionaire but not if there is a safer, fairly respectable alternative, even if it's rather ho-hum such as Crash or archaic like The King's Speech. Last year I never bought into the early predictions for Lincoln, a safe, historical drama that was more bio than epic, but gave audiences very little they didn't already know. I felt in my bones that they would go for a crowd-pleaser even if I had the wrong crowd-pleaser. The fact that Ben Affleck failed to be nominated for Best Director for Argo never meant the film was out of the running. All it meant was that now the underdog had even more champions as the outcome would show. Les Misérables was done in by reviewers and ultimately Oscar voters who viewed it on their screeners as opposed to seeing it in a theatre where those damned close-ups were not as in your face as they were on even large TV screens. But nothing was going to stop Argo once the Affleck snub became the rallying cry to vote against most of Oscar history and award Best Picture to a film without a Best Director nomination.

This year is different. 12 Years a Slave is not only an historical epic, it is one about a part of our history most people don't know about, or even want to know about. It is the presumptive favorite, but could still lose if there is a rallying point behind some other film. The question is what other film? The argument that Gravity should win because no science fiction film has ever won is not as strong an argument as LOTR: The Return of the King should win because no fantasy film has ever won. That had other things going for it, not the least of which it was the third film in a beloved trilogy, not a stand-alone film. Gravity just doesn't seem to have enough traction to overcome the force of nature that McQueen's film seems to be. If not Gravity, then what? At this point, all but two of the year's major films have been seen by enough critics and gadflies to give us a sense of what the competition will be. I have seen trailers for both American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street and neither looks good to me. Of course, trailers are not films, so I'm open to a last minute surprise or two, but this late in the game - and it is late considering the percentage of films that have been seen - the real question is what will the eight nominees be in addition to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity? I'm looking at Captain Phillips; Dallas Buyers Club; Saving Mr. Banks; Philomena; August: Osage County and one, two or three of Inside Llewyn Davis; Nebraska; Her and the two unseen films.

We can never count out surprises in the acting categories. Chiwetel Ejiofor will likely win most, if not all, of the Best Actor precursors for 12 Years a Slave. Robert Redford will capture the lion's share of the geriatric vote for All Is Lost. Bruce Dern may capture whatever geriatric votes don't go to Redford for Nebraska. Matthew McConnaughey will capture whatever votes for most accomplished performance by a first-time nominee for Dallas Buyers Club that Ejiofor doesn't reap. Tom Hnaks will get the lion's share of the reliable old pro vote for Captain Phillips. If there's a surprise I'm guessing it will be Joaquin Phoenix in the quirky Her over either Dern or Hanks.

Cate Blanchett is the early favorite with most of the prognosticators for Best Actress for her unsympathetic turn in Blue Jasmine, but unsympathetic women do not win this one - even Charlize Theron in Monster had a soft side. In the end she may still win, but if the predictions are correct, that this will be an all previous winners race, the emphasis may shift to which of the nominees voters want to see become a rare two-time winner. Not Meryl Streep, who already has three, for a performance in August: Osage County, a film that has split early reviewers. Not Emma Thompson, who already has a writing Oscar as well as an acting one for her acerbic turn in Saving Mr. Banks. Not Sandra Bullock in Gravity just to prove that her recent win for The Blind Side wasn't a fluke. Nope, it will likely be Blanchett's Notes on a Scandal co-star Judi Dench, with the full weight of an as yet unseen Harvey Weinstein push in Philomena. Dench's first Oscar was for a walk-on she could have done in her sleep. In fact, most of her nominations were for outstanding performances in films that were only so-so. Apparently not this time around. I can see a scenario where Blue Is the Warmest Color's Adèle Exarchopoulos could spoil this from becoming an all-winners' slate, but I don't see her winning.

As with Blanchett, Michael Fassbender's totally unsympathetic character in 12 Years a Slave could keep the early favorite from winning, but unsympathetic male characters are the norm in this category as witness the recent wins of Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds and Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men. But those actors were not up against highly sympathetic characters as Fassbender is with Jared Leto who is a real surprise in Dallas Buyers Club. I suspect some critics' group will get around the problem by voting Fassbender Best Supporting Actor and Leto Best Breakthrough Actor, even though the 42 year-old actor has been a name since the 1990s, albeit not recently. The question here is who will the other nominees be? I'm guessing Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips; Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks and Daniel Bruhl in Rush, although the latter is in jeopardy due to his film's surprising box office failure, not that that matters to the minions who will watch his performance on their screeners. Outside possibilities include Geoffrey Rush in The Book Thief and one or more of the supporting players in the two yet to be seen films.

At this point I don't think anyone is betting against newcomer Lupia Nyong'o for Best Supporting Actress in 12 Years a Slave. For her competition, toss in anyone else who played a supporting role in a film this year and some who were co-leads but are so desperate for an Oscar nod that they will pretend that their role is supporting even though just a month or two ago they and their supporters were insisting she was the film's only star - yes, I'm talking about you, Julia Roberts.

Best Director will surely be between 12 Years a Slave's Steve McQueen and Gravity's Alfonso Cuaron. The other nominations are up for grabs. At this point, I'm filling in with Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips; Stephen Frears for Philomena and Spike Jonze for Her, but that could change at any moment.

[ITALIANO]

Well, both Life of Pi and Hugo had obviously more "elaborate" - and more "literary" - screenplays, but I still think that Gravity could be nominated, too. I'm the last person on Earth who believes that its script should be even vaguely considered for a prize, but American reviews have often praised its originality and its supposedly profound subtext, so I'd say that it could make it.

By the way, there's one category where Blue is the Warmest Colour (or Color?) could easily get in - if, I mean, its American distributors were smart enough and knew the Oscars as we do - and that's Supporting Actress. From Mister Tee's analysis, it seems much more open, at this point, than Best Actress (which doesn't often happen), and while Lea Seydoux is a co-lead, by today's weird Academy's standards she could be promoted as Supporting; she has, after all, considerably less screen time than Exarchopoulos (who unlike her is in every scene of the movie) - the difference between Ledger and Gyllenhaal in Brokeback Mountain, for example, was less wide.

Plus, while Exarchopoulos (who's excellently directed) gives the more affecting performance, I feel that Seydoux is the better, more expert actress, and she's been nominated for three Cesars in the past, and has acted in English for such respected American directors as Woody Allen and Quentin Tarantino. And honestly, she's unforgettable in this movie - really. What I mean is that it could be much easier for her to get a Supporting Actress nod than for Exarchopoulos - who is admittedly more talked-about when it comes to the Oscars - to get an Actress one. But it seems that they haven't thought of this possibility.

[The Original BJ]

It'll be interesting to see if the writers go for Gravity or not. As you say, its achievements in the visual/aural areas are far more notable than its script...but one could say the same thing about Life of Pi or Hugo, and overall enthusiasm for those films carried their scripts along. It seems like Screenplay could be a potential bellwether nomination for the movie, indicating strong across-the-board support if it makes the lineup. (You have to imagine the WGA will almost certainly go for it, but I think it could still be up-in-the-air with the Academy until nomination day.)

How do we think the controversy surrounding Abdellatif Kechiche will affect Blue is the Warmest Color? Will his actresses' comments about his abusive behavior hurt his chance at recognition in the Director/Screenplay categories?

Isn't the Gravity score exactly the kind of music -- and written by exactly the kind of newbie composer -- that the music branch leaves off, undoubtedly pissing off everyone?

Mister Tee, the fact that you didn't even mention The Hobbit: Season 2 pretty much sums up its place in this race. I assume it'll get the same nominations the first installment did. And I'm sure they won't be undeserving, but somehow they'll still just feel like by-rote place-filler.

And in the latest round of Obnoxious Moves by Harvey Weinstein, have we noticed the rumors going around that he's pushing August: Osage County as a Comedy at the Golden Globes? I mean, obviously the movie has more laughs than, say, 12 Years a Slave. But...come on.

[Mister Tee]

We haven’t taken a new look at the lay of the land since early September – so, here we go.

I’ve read, in more than one place, that of the top eight categories, only best original screenplay remains unlocked. Which is to say, Cate Blanchett’s best actress trophy is presumed safe, and 12 Years a Slave is thought the sure winner for picture/director/screenplay and the remaining three acting prizes (to Ejiofor, Fassbender & Nyongo’o).

I flashed back to the last time someone suggested a film might take three of the four acting prizes – it was our own (and missed) Dennis B., who made the claim for Ledger, Gyllenhaal and Williams in Brokeback Mountain. Needless to say, it turned out none of those actors went home a winner, and in fact the film didn’t even…well, you remember.

This isn’t to say all of these folks couldn’t possibly win – they’re all surely in the running. But it’s still way early to be making such end-of-day pronouncements. Dennis made his call in early January, and even that was too soon; how much more ridiculous is such a claim on the first of November?

A sub-set of this narrative is that the best picture race is narrowed to two candidates, Gravity and 12 Years, with the latter’s Very Important Subject Matter carrying it to the win. I understand this impulse a bit better: the two films have received near unanimous raves and each is (within its sphere) a significant economic success. What are the chances anything comes along with equal credentials? Still…it’s generally thought polite to wait until all the players are on the field. We have, as everyone knows, two mega-heavyweights still in the wings, American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street. Given that the directors involved with these two efforts have recently been very well-treated by AMPAS should make us at least patient for their arrivals. Also, we should note there are a few films out there already seen (albeit by a narrower swath of critics) that have received critical response pretty close to the big two – Inside Llewyn Davis, Her, maybe Nebraska – that, upon wider exposure, may end up in the same general area. Finally, there are a few festival films, less admired but thought audience favorites, that might turn into populist candidates when released – August: Osage County, Philomena, Lone Survivor, Saving Mr. Banks. (Or disappear utterly if audiences don’t turn out – as has basically happened for Rush, and quite possibly All is Lost)

All of which is to say, there’s a tremendous amount we don’t know at this point, which makes sweeping pronouncements seem absurd, however a solid candidate 12 Years a Slave appears from this vantage point.

So, what are the likeliest best picture nominees? Clearly we can ink in both 12 Years and Gravity. I’d say Captain Phillips, by virtue of reviews and stellar box office, is equally set. Much more iffy, but on the radar, are The Butler and Blue Jasmine, with Fruitvale Station only hanging on because of the Weinstein bump (to be reconsidered if August breaks out big – even Harvey can only spread himself so far). The wild card is Blue is the Warmest Color, which I’m inclined to think has a shot at lone director – and the last two films that essentially took that slot (Tree of Life and Amour) managed a best picture nod as well, in the brave new world of up-to-ten nominees.

Of what’s to come…based on what I’ve heard, and because of how his films have performed of late, I have to rate Payne’s Nebraska most likely. About Philomena and Saving Mr. Banks I remain skeptical; they each seem to be aiming at the uplift-for-the-whole-family crowd. Will one box out the other? Similarly, Her and Inside Llewyn Davis seem like they could cannibalize one another in the hipster slot. American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street are of course utterly unknown quantities -- don’t they also look like vaguely similar movies? I’m rooting for both, but I have the vague notion only one will make it.

So far, it’s a very strange best actor race – strange because the first four candidates I’ve seen (Whitaker, Ejiofor, Hanks, Redford) could all be described as giving rather recessive performances. Ejiofor has one or two active scenes, and Hanks has his collapse at the end…but, apart from that, all four actors are mostly quiet receptors throughout their films. This is not, to put it mildly, the norm in the category – assertive, even flamboyant performances have often ruled the day. Brody in The Pianist is the only one I can think of that has the same level of passivity. It may be time for another…or, voters may find themselves drawn to more demonstrative work, from Matthew McConnaughey this past weekend, or, ahead, from Bruce Dern, Joaquin Phoenix, Leo DiCaprio or whoever’s the lead in American Hustle. (Or, for that matter, they could gravitate to little-knowns like Michael B. Jordan or Oscar Isaac) The bloggers could be right and Ejiofor could run away with it…or there could be many further developments in the over-stuffed category.

At this point, I doubt anyone would argue that Cate Blanchett and Sandra Bullock are going to make the best actress list. The question is who joins them on the ballot. The default choice right now is an all-old-broads group: Streep, Dench and Emma Thompson…which is certainly possible. In fact, there isn’t that much as alternative. But I’d suggest 1) voters might laugh off Julia Roberts’ category fraud and co-nominate her with Streep; 2) Tom O’Neil’s babe theory might suggest a shot for probable critics’ darling Exarchopoulos; and 3) the seemingly inevitable Amy Adams could get yet another mention, for American Hustle.

If the lead categories are in flux, the supporting ones are doubly so: It’s possible almost all the nominees are in sight now…but it’s worth remembering many have popped up as surprises past this point in recent years (for example: Jacki Weaver and Christoph Waltz last year, everybody from The Fighter in 2010, Woody Harrelson and Maggie Gyllenhaal in ’09, Michael Shannon in ’08)

Well-overdue Michael Fassbender and Jared Leto, by critical acclaim, lead the men’s list right now. I could easily see Barkhad Abdi and James Gandolfini (on sentiment and merit) making it as well. Rush’s financial fizzle didn’t do Daniel Bruhl any favors, but he remains alive. George Clooney in Gravity and Jake Gyllenhaal in Prisoners can’t be summarily dismissed. In what’s to come, there’s talk of Steve Coogan in Philomena (though it’s probably category fraud), John Goodman in Inside Llewyn Davis, Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks (and you know how I love big stars hogging supporting slots). From the utterly unseen, the “take it for what it’s worth” buzz is for Bradley Cooper in Hustle and Jonah Hill in Wolf.

I’m on record as saying I think Lupita Nyong’o’s role in 12 Years, while powerful, is a bit on the small side. At this point, though, I haven’t seen anyone who betters her. Sally Hawkins is quite solid in Blue Jasmine, and would be a splendid nominee, but her role doesn’t have fireworks. Oprah is perfectly decent but no more in The Butler. Octavia Spencer is moving in Fruitvale Station, but it’s not enough for a second Oscar so soon. The most intriguing of the already-seen’s is June Squibb – a veteran actress breaking through at such an age might make a popular Academy narrative. I have no idea whether Julia Roberts’ patent fraud will succeed – or if someone else from August might make the cut. There’s some talk that Scarlett Johansson’s voice-only work in Her is so dominant and so affecting that it could cut through the prejudice against such roles…though that’s a long shot. And, in the as-yet unseen category, word appears to be strongest for a Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle return (a la Jennifer Jones in ’44 after her topline ’43 win).

After last year, you never say never under best director, but it’s hard to believe we won’t see Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron get their first nods. Paul Greengrass also seems a strong possibility right now, but he could face hefty competition from a parade of auteurs: Scorsese, the Coens, Russell, Jonze, Allen, Payne – and, as I’ve suggested, Kekiche in the lone director mode. Last year’s Zeitlin nod makes one think Ryan Coogler has a shot. With all that pretty exciting talent, I have to wonder who’s going to come along to screw that category up. Lee Daniels? John Lee Hancock? There aren’t many true bummer candidates this year.

Screenplay divides up unusually this year: for once, the preponderance of good work has been done on the original side (or what passes for original by writers’ branch rules – Saving Mr. Banks and Fruitvale Station aren’t exactly fresh-from-the-mind-of-the-writer). This could make for some potentially interesting choices under adaptation. 12 Years and Captain Phillips are almost surely in, but after that it’s murky. The Linklater/Delpy/Hawke team managed a nomination for Before Sunset, and may well pull it off again here for Before Midnight. The script for based-on-a-graphic-novel Blue is the Warmest Color could benefit from the writers’ long-held affection for subtitled scripts. The Wolf of Wall Street, if it’s a success, could obviously score here. After that, the literary pedigrees of August: Osage County or Philomena might help. Or, if (as rumor has it) Frozen – based loosely on The Snow Queen – turns into the animation favorite, it could get a nod in the spirit of Shrek and numerous Pixars.

But the action, as I say, is on the original side. Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska and Blue Jasmine are highly-acclaimed scripts from filmmakers well-familiar to the screenwriting category. Spike Jonze is in the running for his own script this time, but has landed films in this slot before. Fruitvale Station and Enough Said are the sorts of small successes that are often given their due by the writers (the latter, especially, as it’s Holofcener’s biggest hit to date). It feels a bit crowded for them to get in, but sometimes voters go for the off-beat (Frozen River, In Bruges) over the more expected. Gravity seems like a long shot, given that its script is universally seen as its least distinguished element – but if it’s a big enough Oscar player, it might slip in (the way, say, Gladiator did, to our shock). And plenty of people had Saving Mr. Banks earmarked for the category based on its long-time spot on the Hollywood blacklist; possibly that alone could push it aboard.

Below the line, we’re about where we were in September: Lubezki is finally doing the sort of cinematography to which he’s been losing for several years; let’s hope the voters don’t turn contrary now. Costumes and design are unusually sparse – the gaudiness of Gatsby and the delicacy of 12 Years dominate, but maybe something fresh will come along. Gravity has to be something of a favorite under both sound slots; Rush’s flameout eliminates one zone of competition, but there could be more. I could imagine 12 Years or Gravity winning for music, as part of a wave, but I’ll need to see a lot more films before I’m ready to put either in ink. Editing could also go to 12 Years, or Gravity, or Captain Phillips, which has a lot of cross-cutting, masterly done by Bourne Ultimatum winner Rouse. Visual effects is of course a gimme. Makeup…well, we always have to wait to see the nominees from this idiosyncratic branch, before we even begin to discuss.

I’m told there are some interesting songs from Inside Llewyn Davis and Her. I kind of liked the end-tune from All is Lost. Frozen will no doubt offer something. And Frozen, as I say, by early word could be non-Pixar-Disney’s first animation winner…thought Miyazaki’s effort is out there to swoop in if it falters.