Best Actress 2004

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
It's strange to have to recalibrate what was a three-sided race (Sideways SAG, Aviator PGA and Million Dollar Baby DGA making for a pretty even contest) into a two-hander. I think the pressure to give Marty his Oscar at last would have been immense without Eastwood for competition -- but I think The Aviator was in the admired-not-loved box that Reds once occupied, and it would have lost best picture in the end to Sideways. Which, I'll disagree with Sabin, was closer to loved, at least in some circles.

But none of the people who loved Sideways the most are Academy voters. I do wonder how much more admired than loved The Aviator was? After all, it won the PGA, the BAFTA, and the Golden Globe for Best Drama. I have the same hunch you do but they can't all be friends of Martin Scorsese, Michael Mann, and Harvey Weinstein.

But something else springs to mind that might tip the Oscar to Sideways. In this fictional race, Sideways becomes the only film in the race that isn't a biopic. Hotel Rwanda might not technically be a biopic but it feels TV Movie enough to get lumped in without much protest. 2004 was lousy with biopics. Beyond the four "nominated," there was Kinsey, Beyond the Sea, De-Lovely, The Motorcycle Diaries, and Two Alexander The Great Films. I think if that narrative takes hold, Sideways becomes an underdog worth rooting for. Also, Sideways may be a little more love it/hate it than the other nominated films, but the ballot hadn't changed from simple majority yet. And it's hard to imagine a die hard Aviator faction. It's easier to imagine fans of Aviator but also some folks who might like Hotel Rwanda more over here, and some who like Ray more over here... The Sideways bloc seems more solid.

You might be right about Imelda Staunton. Swank won as an unknown as well and Staunton had the bona fides of having a British accent. It's worth remembering that 2004 was the first year where SAG went 4/4 in predicting the winning performances. I'm not counting 1997 because Basinger & Stuart tied and, y'know, I bet that race lost a lot of people their office pool. Anyway, the race essentially boils down to two Brits vs. an American where one of the Americans is playing a Brit, one of the Brits is playing an American, and one of the Brits is playing herself for all anyone watching Vera Drake knows.

[Mister Tee]

For best picture, I agree Hotel Rwanda was a more likely replacement nominee.

It's strange to have to recalibrate what was a three-sided race (Sideways SAG, Aviator PGA and Million Dollar Baby DGA making for a pretty even contest) into a two-hander. I think the pressure to give Marty his Oscar at last would have been immense without Eastwood for competition -- but I think The Aviator was in the admired-not-loved box that Reds once occupied, and it would have lost best picture in the end to Sideways. Which, I'll disagree with Sabin, was closer to loved, at least in some circles.

As for the best actress race that occasioned this discussion: I never got the Bening thing at all; it seemed to spring full-grown from blogger imagination.

I think Staunton would definitely have won the Globe in Swank's absence. Back then, more than in recent times, they were partial to non-American actors, and Staunton's performance had by far the most visibility.

By virtue of her greater familiarity with American voters, I think it's possible Winslet would have won SAG. This was before SAG voters were getting screeners, and voters tended to go for more widely-seen efforts. (Just a year earlier, they'd gone with Depp for Pirates.) Eternal Sunshine, released a full year earlier, would have been home-viewed by way more voters than Vera Drake.

It might have been a close race at AMPAS, but I think Vera Drake's directing nod indicated slightly broader support, and the BAFTA win would have been an early signal of that group's growing influence at the Oscars. Staunton for the win.

[Big Magilla]

We could speculate on all the major races for every year - guessing who or what might have won had the actual winner not been in the race and who or what might have been nominated instead of the winner.

For anything in the last twenty years the best barometer is probably the Broadcast Critics which in 2004 nominated six actresses - all five of Oscar's nominees and Uma Thurman in Kill Bill: Volume Two. I think she gets the slot.

Although Bening was not the top choice with the critics, she did win the first out of the gate National Board of Review award and was, along with Winslet, runner-up to Staunton with teh New York Film Critics. By the time of the Oscars, the dynamic of having a rerun of the 1999 race had taken hold and the question was whether the Oscar would go to a a presumed one-trick pony for a second time or a veteran who had never won. Staunton, by that time, had pretty much been relegated to the sidelines. However, without the dynamic of the 1999 rerun I'm not sure that Bening would have been such a heavy favorite. Bening was, and is, considered one of the best actresses of her generation. She got even better after 2004 in The Kids Are All Right, which she should have won for, and 20th Century Women and Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool for which she most certainly should have been nominated for. She was also an early Oscar favorite for last year's The Report so we shouldn't sell her short. In the end, though, I think Staunton would have won sans Swank in the race.

As for Best Picture, Hotel Rwanda and Eternal Sunshine may have benefitted by Million Dollar Baby's absence - both were among the Broadcast Critics' ten nominees, but then so were Collateral, Phantom of the Opera and Kinsey. I would have gone with Kinsey. I think sans Million Dollar Baby in the race the win would have been a horse race between the two Golden Globe winners, Aviator and Sideways with Aviator probably winning by a nose.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Gotta love counterfactuals.

Honestly, I think Sabin nails it though. I don't think Annette Bening was really ever in the race. I think Staunton wins the Globe without Swank and then SAG becomes a battle between Staunton and Winslet.

That said, I'm not sure I think Vera Drake was sixth that year and makes the leap up to best picture nominee. And I'm curious what wins best picture in this scenario.

I don't think Vera Drake was sixth that year either. The Director's Guild lined up perfectly with the eventual five. So did The Screen Actor's Guild, who nominated six and added Hotel Rwanda. The Producer's Guild went with The Incredibles over Ray (although they gave Hotel Rwanda the Stanley Kramer Award). And the British Academy didn't have Million Dollar Baby or Hotel Rwanda on their 2004 calendar and nominated The Aviator, Eternal Sunshine, Finding Neverland, The Motorcycle Diaries, and Vera Drake. I would imagine that if Million Dollar Baby is out, then the likeliest choice is probably Hotel Rwanda simply on the basis that the largest block is the actors.

So, it's The Aviator vs. Sideways? Two films that voters probably don't love and many might not even like. Which does your average voter care less about: Howard Hughes or a couple of adulterous wine snobs? But if that's the narrative, I think Sideways gets a slight edge if only because voters clearly wanted something a little more human that year. I will say that if Million Dollar Baby is taken out of the race, that frees up seven nominations*, including spots for Best Actor and Best Film Editing. I would imagine that Sideways was in sixth place for both of those, considering that Paul Giamatti was nominated for a Globe and a SAG (but not a BAFTA-- they were not fans) and that this branch saw fit to give The Descendants a nomination for Best Film Editing. So, Sideways would no longer be the recipient of the fewest nominations of the year (5) but rather tied with Finding Neverland for second most of the year. Sideways would likely still win a SAG award but The Aviator won the BAFTA, the PGA and the Golden Globe IRL. Likely, the DGA would have followed suit...

It's worth noting that it's possible to win all those awards, lose the SAG award, and still lose Best Picture. It happened to Brokeback Mountain. La La Land and 1917 weren't nominated for a SAG award. The Artist survived it. So, it's probably smart to assume that The Aviator would've ended up winning. I would feel more confident in predicting Sideways if Virginia Madsen ended up beating Cate Blanchett. That's a more meaningful loss for Sideways than The Aviator losing Best Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing. On the other hand, I think Thomas Haden Church probably wins if Morgan Freeman isn't in the running.

Twist my arm, it's my alternate reality. I say voters split their boxes, Marty wins his first Oscar for The Aviator, the film picks up five additional Oscars for a grand total of six, but when Barbra Streisand and Dustin Hoffman open the final envelope, it goes to Sideways. The night goes down as very forgettable but the winners are better than usual.

*I would guess that the other likely recipients of Million Dollar Baby's seven nominations are Marc Forster for Best Director, Julie Delpy for Best Actress, either David Carradine, Freddie Highmore, James Garner, or Peter Sarsgaard for Best Supporting Actor let's just say Peter Sarsgaard, and Closer for Best Adapted Screenplay.

[Okri]

Gotta love counterfactuals.

Honestly, I think Sabin nails it though. I don't think Annette Bening was really ever in the race. I think Staunton wins the Globe without Swank and then SAG becomes a battle between Staunton and Winslet.

That said, I'm not sure I think Vera Drake was sixth that year and makes the leap up to best picture nominee. And I'm curious what wins best picture in this scenario.

[Sabin]

mlrg wrote
Had Swank not been in the race I actually think Benning would have won. Staunton would have won the Golden Globe but she might be in the same position Brenda Blethyn was when she won the Globe for Secrets and Lies, coincidently another film directed by Mike Leigh, and later lost the Oscar to an american actress.

Here's a question: who do SAG voters back? Annette Bening for Being Julia? I'd feel more confident about her chances if Being Julia wasn't a sole Oscar nominee -- and so slight. Certainly, sole nominees can translate to wins. One year prior, Monster won Charlize Theron an Oscar. In 1994, SAG gave it to Jodie Foster for Nell (a sole nominee) but Oscar went for Jessica Lange for Blue Sky (another). But we saw what happened to Glenn Close for The Wife, a sole nominee for an overdue actress (oh look!) also distributed by Sony Pictures Classics. I've always found the Annette Bening-is-overdue narrative to be mostly a creation of Oscar bloggers. I get that she was nominated for The Grifters and was in a few things (and Mrs. Warren Beatty), but it's not like anyone was desperately paying attention to her work until American Beauty. Honestly, Annette Bening just seems like one of those people who became overdue by losing not because of public sentiment that she was actually a beloved institution. Which is to say, she's only overdue to Oscar bloggers.

To be honest, I could see SAG voters backing Kate Winslet. After all, in 2004 Winslet was on her fourth nomination vs. Bening's third, Winslet had Finding Neverland to her credit as well, and the film might've been more their vibe than a Mike Leigh movie or Being Julia. But also a Swank-less year is a Million Dollar Baby-less year, which means voters spend a little more time looking around the room (especially as seven slots open up). And more time looking around the room also means a little more attention paid to Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, a movie that sitting around waiting to be remembered.

I don't think it would be a race for the ages but we would likely be looking at a scenario where the Globes (Bening/Staunton), SAG (Winslet), and BAFTA (Staunton) all produced three different candidates.

[mlrg]

Had Swank not been in the race I actually think Benning would have won. Staunton would have won the Golden Globe but she might be in the same position Brenda Blethyn was when she won the Globe for Secrets and Lies, coincidently another film directed by Mike Leigh, and later lost the Oscar to an american actress.

[Sabin]

Precious Doll wrote
Also worth remember that Imelda Staunton was not unknown to the British voting block. She has long been very well known in the UK industry (not to mention some cinema goers like myself) for a good decade and a half before Vera Drake. In a Staunton vs. Benning showdown I think Staunton would have scrapped though. I think being married to Warren Beatty has long been a handicap for Annette Benning and the Oscars.

I don’t think being married to Warren Beatty matters, but I agree that Staunton would likely win considering that Vera Drake managed nominations for writing and directing. Who saw that coming? Given an extra slot in the Best Picture lineup, perhaps a nom there wouldn’t be unthinkable. Also, does anyone doubt that without Swank in the way, Staunton would’ve won the Drama Globe? She wouldn’t be a lock but it would’ve been enough, and likely she would’ve given enough charming speeches to convince voters to give the film a try — and see contrast between her bubbly persona and her character. Not unlike Olivia Colman.

[Precious Doll]

Also worth remember that Imelda Staunton was not unknown to the British voting block. She has long been very well known in the UK industry (not to mention some cinema goers like myself) for a good decade and a half before Vera Drake. In a Staunton vs. Benning showdown I think Staunton would have scrapped though. I think being married to Warren Beatty has long been a handicap for Annette Benning and the Oscars.

[Big Magilla]

Had Million Dollar Baby not arrived like it did to sweep up, it's hard to imagine what might've happened. Would Annette Bening have won for the forgettable Being Julia? Or Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake. Clearly there were fans because of its three nominations. Or (wishful thinking on my part) would Kate Winslet have taken it four years earlier for what was seen at the time as an exciting change of pace? But the race itself felt a bit hollowed out. Once Swank won the Golden Globe and Million Dollar Baby was poised to sweep, the Best Actress race went from something only serious Oscar blogists were interested in (Annette Bening getting her Oscar at last vs. an unknown in a Mike Leigh movie) to over and done with. A second Oscar for an actress most had only seen once before.

That's it. It was Million Dollar Baby sweeping in like it did at the last minute to take our breath away. Not since Titanic had a film arrived at the last minute to upend everything so completely.

Titanic, was of course, a highly publicized film that didn't come out of nowhere, but its prerelease buzz was in the negative. Million Dollar Baby was an unknown from a high profile older director whose best days were thought to be behind him. It was like a breath of fresh air, the little engine that could, and did.

Imelda Staunton was not an unknown by year's end. She had won the lion's share of critics' awards including the three most prestigious from New York, Los Angeles and the NSFC. I remember Annette Bening being talked of as a likely nominee, but you're right, only Oscar bloggers thought she might win. That idea picked up steam once Hilary Swank was in the mix and they talked of a rematch of 1999 when she and Swank were in more serious competition.

I really do need to see Eternal Sunshine again, but at the time I thought it was another overrated Charlie Kaufman movie. I had seen Adaptation two years earlier and hated it except for Chris Cooper's performance. My dislike for the film was largely due to the theatre in which I saw it in which it was projected wrong with the overhead mikes visible in several scenes including most of Meryl Streep's. I thought it was supposed to be the way the film was meant to be projected. Then, the film melted toward the end, making it even worse. It was years before I finally got to see the film properly projected. I still didn't like it, but I didn't hate it. After that, I approached anything written by Kaufman with trepidation.

[Sabin]

Reza wrote
Kidman is really very good in Birth and is my favourite female performance of the year - she is also very good in Dogville. But Birth never had a chance because of the subject matter. In fact a film with such a subject today would never be made with the kind of "climate" that exists in the United States.

I prefer Kidman in Dogville but she's excellent in Birth as well. Birth deserved nominations for Best Original Score and Cinematography as well.

I don't think I understand your point though. A movie about a woman who becomes convinced that her deceased husband has been reincarnated as a 10-year-old boy? Sure, that could get made today. It might not be made in the same way or for $20 million, but yeah. Or at least as some kind of a miniseries for television or something.

[Reza]

And after she was overlooked for Cold Mountain, there was a sense that voters were getting over Nicole Kidman especially when she was in two films (Birth, Dogville -- excellent in both) that all-but begged voters to stay away.

Kidman is really very good in Birth and is my favourite female performance of the year - she is also very good in Dogville. But Birth never had a chance because of the subject matter. In fact a film with such a subject today would never be made with the kind of "climate" that exists in the United States.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
I realize I wrote this ten years ago, but I have no idea why I called these performances dreary. The characters, maybe, but Swank and Staunton were very good and Bening was fine in the kind of melodrama that is usually reserved for TV movies nowadays.

I've only seen Eternal Sunshine once 15-16 years ago, so I can't say whether I was undervaluing Winslet's role in it or not.

I don't know if Winslet is better than her competition in 2004 but I think I wish that she had won and not just compared to what she ended up winning for. I know a lot of people my age who feel the same way. It was a very meaningful film for my generation and she was a big part of that.

Maybe you thought the 2004 lineup was dreary because it was one of those years where there was more star power in support. Or it seemed like there could've been (in retrospect, how did no women from Ray get into the conversation more). So, it felt a little less like a classical race. Had Million Dollar Baby not arrived like it did to sweep up, it's hard to imagine what might've happened. Would Annette Bening have won for the forgettable Being Julia? Or Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake. Clearly there were fans because of its three nominations. Or (wishful thinking on my part) would Kate Winslet have taken it four years earlier for what was seen at the time as an exciting change of pace? But the race itself felt a bit hollowed out. Once Swank won the Golden Globe and Million Dollar Baby was poised to sweep, the Best Actress race went from something only serious Oscar blogists were interested in (Annette Bening getting her Oscar at last vs. an unknown in a Mike Leigh movie) to over and done with. A second Oscar for an actress most had only seen once before.

Or maybe because it all got locked up so quickly. I just remember consensus being reached very quickly with that race. Normally in a race like this, Academy voters will look overseas for an international option. Maria Full of Grace SORT OF allowed them to look overseas without leaving the country. They didn't feel the need to do so elsewhere. Beyond that, it's hard to expect Academy voters to look to Ziyi Zhang, Sylvie Testud, Moon So-ri, or Dominic Blanc when critic's group voters couldn't be bothered. In fact, the only other performance that registered anywhere with film critics was Julie Delpy who came in runner up here and there. But lovely as she was, Julie Delpy probably seemed closer to persona than performance. Who else? The Phantom of the Opera flamed out. If Uma Thurman wasn't going to break through for Kill Bill: Vol. 1, probably not Vol. 2. Scarlett Johansson followed up her breakthrough year with a movie that was gone in the blink of an eye. If she wasn't going to get it for Lost in Translation or Girl with a Pearl Earring, why A Love Song for Bobby Long? Normally in a race like this, voters would look to an international film to fill the slot... except they didn't have to. And after she was overlooked for Cold Mountain, there was a sense that voters were getting over Nicole Kidman especially when she was in two films (Birth, Dogville -- excellent in both) that all-but begged voters to stay away.

I think it's one of the few races where all five performances are quite good.

[Big Magilla]

I voted for Swank more by default than anything else.

I didn't care for Eternal Sunshine - in fact I thought Winslet was better in the overall disappointing Finding Neverland.

I found Bening merely serviceable in Becoming Julia. Sandino Moreno was fine as the Colombian mule, but it was more her character than her performance that was being celebrated. She hasn't been very interesting at all in subsequent roles.

Staunton was really good as Vera Drake, but I find something off-putting about Mike Leigh's films in general and this was ultimately no exception though she comes closer to winning an award from me than anyone else in his films ever has.

So, yes, I thought it was a very dreary group of nominees playing mostly dreary characters.

I realize I wrote this ten years ago, but I have no idea why I called these performances dreary. The characters, maybe, but Swank and Staunton were very good and Bening was fine in the kind of melodrama that is usually reserved for TV movies nowadays.

I've only seen Eternal Sunshine once 15-16 years ago, so I can't say whether I was undervaluing Winslet's role in it or not. Not all of those 34 votes were legitimate. Someone was playing games. How many she would have gotten without the game playing I don't know, but it's interesting that Staunton outpolled Swank here. I'm sure I voted for Swank who was very effective in her two Oscar winning roles even if her career since hasn't come close to those two high water marks.

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
I would say Swank is tentatively my pick, but Million Dollar Baby is the only other of these films that I've seen since that Oscar race. I actually just rewatched it about a month ago. I think it mostly holds up (although as an Eastwood fan, I do like a lot of his other post-2000 films better), and I do think Swank is a deserving winner, although I also think Swank's performance is less interesting than what Eastwood and Freeman are doing. Eternal Sunshine and Maria Full of Grace are both streaming on platforms I have, so I'll probably catch those next. (Being Julia was on HBO for the longest, and I remember next to nothing about it, but I just couldn't work up the interest.)

Well, all of us on the board (and the 34 people who voted for Kate Winslet) await your verdict.

NOTE: I think I agree with you about your take on Vera Drake. I might have wanted to see the version of the film without the trial or something that featured more conflict for Staunton's character.