The State Of The Race

[The Original BJ]

I've eaten my words with statements like this before, but I doubt The Kite Runner will be much of an Oscar factor. Its buzz seems pretty limited -- I expect Phantom of the Opera/Memoirs of a Geisha-style scattered nods, but not anywhere in the Big 8. Even adapted screenplay seems WAY too competitive for a film that hasn't made much of a mark anywhere.

I'm more worried about American Gangster -- the Globe Picture/Director/Actor and SAG Ensemble nod have kept it around, and it was a big hit.

[Akash]

a kite runner nomination may be all but assured? i don't think so...the film for one wasn't very good

When has this ever mattered to the Academy?

[dylanfan23]

a kite runner nomination may be all but assured? i don't think so...the film for one wasn't very good and i'm far from alone in thinking that looking at how little attension its gotten from critics and top ten lists......i'm not really into predicting but if you put a gun to my head i'd say neither gets a best picture nomination and anderson gets a directing nomination(but i haven't seen there will be blood)....my point was that i think its foolish to think kite runner has a better shot than there will be blood...not that there will be blood will be nominated. I think there will be blood should be in the 6-8 range and kite runner should be in the 13-15 range...not even close.

[Akash]

Hard to believe he thinks the kite runner has a better chance of being nominated than there will be blood

Um with the Academy, this is VERY likely. These people nominated The Green Mile over any number of wonderful or at least superior films (including PTA's own Magnolia). I'd be pleasantly shocked if they can resist crowning The Kite Runner altogether, but a nomination may be all but assured.

[Big Magilla]

Hard to believe people who haven't seen There Will Be Blood yet can be so convinced of its Oscar-baity-ness. Having seen it, I remain skeptical. I'm having trouble imagining the profile of the Academy member who picks it as #1 over No Country For Old Men. I think this guy probably has it placed about right.

From my observations, without having seen it, the film may be off-putting to many has enought partisans who feel passionate about it to get it nominated, though not enough to force a win. The same seems to be true for Sweeney Todd and maybe Juno, but No country for Old Men is clearly the front-runner. However, if all three violent films (No Country, Sweeney, Blood) are nominated, the vote splitting among them could easily give the win to another film - most likely Into the Wild or Atonement.

[Big Magilla]

My skepticism kicked in with the very first mention...Juno for best picture.

[Penelope]

In the supporting actress category Keener is more likely than Garner.

I agree; I've seen no traction for Garner whatsoever in this race, whereas Keener is looking more and more likely.

[rain Bard]

Hard to believe people who haven't seen There Will Be Blood yet can be so convinced of its Oscar-baity-ness. Having seen it, I remain skeptical. I'm having trouble imagining the profile of the Academy member who picks it as #1 over No Country For Old Men. I think this guy probably has it placed about right.

[dylanfan23]

Hard to believe he thinks the kite runner has a better chance of being nominated than there will be blood

[Hustler]

Hard to believe that There will be Blood is not considered a lock. I would replace it by The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Same case with P.T. Anderson. I don´t see strong posibilities for Julian Schnabel.
In the supporting actress category Keener is more likely than Garner.



Edited By Hustler on 1198366420

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Feinberg has a list of up and coming stars, film. etc and those dropping on the "hit parade"
Please see http://andthewinneris.blog.com/