The State Of The Race

1998 through 2007
Akash
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Post by Akash »

Thanks for reminding me to check out Michael Musto's Oscar predictions in the Village Voice Damien. Each year the guy writes the most entertaining predictions article (okay, tied with Slant's Eric and Ed) and every year I'm grateful that there is at least one writer out there (or three) who doesn't take the Oscars as seriously as Dave Karger (Tom O'Neil doesn't count, he's just insane).

Anyway if you haven't read it yet, here is his wittily bitchy article.

La Dolce Musto
Oscar Predictions Filled With Greed and Vengeance!
From the seer, suckers: The nominees, plus trash talk about some non-nominees
by Michael Musto
January 15th, 2008 5:52 PM


Did you honestly think a silly little thing like the writers' strike would stop the Oscar nominations—or my flood of irrelevant predictions for them? Especially when I was totally right with last year's column about how Basic Instinct 2 would be completely shut out? So let me trot out a whole new batch of can't-fail Academy Awards buzz. This year's lucky (and, if they show up, scabby) nominees—announced on the 22nd—will most assuredly be a bracing mixture of the "Wow!" and the "What the fuck?" I predict:

BEST PICTURE No Country for Old Men ("I didn't get it," a friend told me—and that's recommendation enough); Michael Clayton (The truth can be adjusted—and so can the Oscar list to include this enjoyable popcorn movie posing as art); There Will Be Blood (Oil, that is. Black gold. Texas tea); Atonement (It spans many years of thwarted passion and many months of hype); The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (a stroke of genius, ba dum pum).

But don't rule out: Into The Wild (A vote for this might encourage Sean Penn to stay behind the camera); Juno (a much better title than The Jamie Lynn Spears Story); Sweeney Todd (a/k/a There Will Be Blood and Singing. Bravo! Blech); American Gangster (just for the line, "Fuck me like a cop, not a lawyer!"); 3:10 to Yuma (Yuma, Oprah, Oprah, Yuma).

BEST FEMALE ACTOR (Yes, we do it the correct way here): Julie Christie, Away From Her (though I can't remember why. Kidding, bad joke. Actually, she broke my heart, threw it to the ground, stomped on it, and put it right back in); Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose (Flawless lip-synch plus turtley old-age makeup equals guaranteed Oscar nod. But are we sure she's not a drag queen?); Ellen Page, Juno (the nomination poor Christina Ricci never got. And it's the rare edgy movie that can't offend anyone—the 16-year-old has the baby but doesn't keep it. Learn it, Jamie Lynn); Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart (though Angie surely won't accept the nomination until they legalize gay marriage); Keira Knightley, Atonement (She didn't have much to do except look snooty and get fucked against the wall, but she was great in Pride and Prejudice and she's really pretty).

But don't rule out: Amy Adams, Enchanted (Once in love with Amy . . .); Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age (No one liked it, but it takes a very special film to unite the entire populace); Laura Linney, The Savages (She's always amazing—and no, I didn't see The Nanny Diaries).

BEST MALE ACTOR Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd (such a cutie, even when holding a grudge and a scalpel); Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild (this year's Ryan Gosling); George Clooney, Michael Clayton (Has there ever been a nomination for charisma alone? Sure, Jude Law got two of them); Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood (But there won't be scenery after he gets through chewing it. I kid. He was actually genius as the oily oil man with the newscaster voice); Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl (last year's Ryan Gosling).

But don't rule out: Russell Crowe, 3:10 to Yuma (Hollywood loves him for killing the gay guy—in the movie); Denzel Washington, American Gangster (He put the "hero" back in heroin); Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Standard (such gravitas—and a dimpled butt is always a plus); Mathieu Amalric, The Diving Bell . . . (Blink if you liked him); Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening (though he didn't look like Nixon at all); James McAvoy, Atonement (those lips, that nose).

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE ACTOR Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone (Go, baby, go!); Saiorse Ronan, Atonement (this year's Abigail Breslin—and don't say, "Who's Abigail Breslin?"); Catherine Keener, Into the Wild (Her dippy hippie livened up the wilderness); Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There (This time, she rocked. But what was Kate Hepburn doing in a Bob Dylan movie?); Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton (She was mesmerizingly good, practically turning the whole flick into The Witch and the Wardrobe).

But don't rule out: Romola Garai, Atonement (She atoned for Saiorse Ronan's doings); Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement (She atoned for Romola Garai's doings—and her performance was three of the strongest seconds in the film); Ruby Dee, American Gangster (extra points for slapping Denzel).

BEST SUPPORTING MALE ACTOR Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (He had to endure small-dick jokes and dialogue like, "Let me be your sidekick tonight so you can examine my grit and intelligence." Plus his piece, I mean his part, was way bigger than Brad Pitt's. In fact, the camera lovingly lingered on his dewy saucer eyes for 160 long minutes); Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men (Another cuckoo assassin! They'll flip a coin and decide he had grit and intelligence); Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton (The Full Monty guy got naked again, but with extra pills and pathos. He broke my heart etc., etc.); Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild (a master class in acting, but he should get nominated anyway); Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War (It took him two years, but he's broken that fucking Oscar curse! Maybe!).

But don't rule out: John Travolta, Hairspray (for bravely turning camp into science fiction) and Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men (I'm scared-a him.). By the way, with this bunch of largely obscure films based on greed and vengeance, the Academy should probably be thrilled that there probably won't be a telecast this year. Imagine the ratings!

But enough with these pretentious, grubby craftspeople aiming for hollow glory. Let me truly go into the wild for some trashy, non-award-winning gossip by the coward Michael Musto: The steamy club BoysRoom was recently evicted, so it moved to Rapture Café, where they now block off the shelves of books at night—as if the go-go crowd would grab for some of them!

Actually, there is one they might want to peek at: Andrew Morton's unauthorized bio of Tom Cruise, though it turns out that the tell-all treats sexuality issues briefly, as if fucked by both a cop and a lawyer. Firstly, Morton insists on using the term "gay slurs" more than once, as if agreeing with Cruise's legal team that it's vicious for a star to be called gay. He also writes with great assuredness, "Tom has successfully—and rightly—won every legal battle about his sexuality." But Morton does admit that Tom may have lost the war because of the constant speculation on the Web. And he sneaks in a story about a porn star named Big Red who claimed to have slept with Cruise. Though the Enquirer found Red's story too screwy to run, Morton quotes pit-bull private eye Anthony Pellicano as being more open-minded about it. In any case, if it's true that—as Morton reports—the guy ended up in hiding, maybe he and the author can get together for drinks in the underworld.

Porn star Michael Lucas came out of his boudoir closet to answer my item that on Another Gay Sequel: Gays Gone Wild, he refused to wear a "cock sock," and—what's worse—he made his young co-star cry by fingering his butt. Lucas swears he put the cock blocker on with no objection, and he also pooh-poohs the ass-fingering claim. "Even if I was ugly and desperate on a desert island," he told me, "I wouldn't do that with him. He was not my type—a skinny little teenager. It would seem like child molestation. Not to sound arrogant, but I usually get a very positive reaction when I stick my finger in people's assholes. Some guys are upset when I don't put my finger up there. But this guy wasn't interesting to me. Unless it's the producers spreading the rumor. How desperate they must be!" Do I smell two thumbs up from Ebert and Roeper?

Finally, things are looking up for Lindsay Lohan. She may not get a nomination for I Know Who Killed Me, but I hear Lohan's being interviewed for the cover of Paper at the Beverly Hills Hotel, then sweeping off to go back to the recording studio. Let's toast her with cranberry juice!

http://www.villagevoice.com/generic....XNnPQ==
Damien
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Post by Damien »

I love Michael Musto's comment in the Village Voice regarding Marion Cotillard: "Flawless lip-synch plus turtley old-age makeup equals guaranteed Oscar nod. But are we sure she's not a drag queen?"
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Post by cam »

Re USA Today's list:
I agree with Damien that one or the other would get a nom. for Best Actor: One or the other--I hope it is Gosling again.
Although Supporting Actor really seems to be tight, I would really like to see Paul Dano there. He is the antagonist in the piece, and one of you will be able to tell me when AMPAS has nominated a "team" : one for actor, one for supporting actor and invariably the antagonist, not a partner. There are dozens of examples.
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Post by Damien »

Penelope wrote:USAToday lists the most likely nominees and offers up some wishes:
Hmmm, they don't even mention in passing Amy Adams or Frank Langella. Not that they're in my top 5 likely, but they certainly should be in the Covering Our Asses groups.

I can't see both Hirsch and Gosling being nominated. In fact, I can't see Gosling being nominated at all for that thing.
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Post by flipp525 »

cam wrote:The finale of the film has these young-then actors in blue wigs intoning their imitations of old-person-speak. Awful to me even as a teenager. And I was in love with James Dean( even had a red nylon jacket and white t-shirts), and although this was not his BEST film of the three he made, I was still first in line, and he could no no wrong as far as I was concerned.

Agreed, cam. There is some pretty awful old makeup and freaky wig shit going on at the end of that film. Isn't Carrol Baker out on a date with James Dean in a dark restaurant where he's getting progressively more drunk while wearing a fat pad and a bad wig? I still think the best part of that movie is Mercedes McCambridge's wonderful performance as Luz. James Dean is the weak link in a wonderful cast (with, agreed Penelope, great work by Hudson and Taylor who work so well off each other). But even Dean's worst performance out of three films is still better than much of the younger actors of today. He was at his best in East of Eden -- an absolutely heartbreaking piece of acting.




Edited By flipp525 on 1199469650
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Post by Penelope »

USAToday lists the most likely nominees and offers up some wishes:

Best Actor:

Likely:

George Clooney
Daniel Day-Lewis
Johnny Depp
Ryan Gosling
Emile Hirsch

Don’t Forget:

Christian Bale (Rescue Dawn)
Philip Seymour Hoffman
James McAvoy
Viggo Mortensen
Denzel Washington

Best Actress:

Likely:

Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Angelina Jolie
Keira Knightley
Ellen Page

Don’t Forget:

Jodie Foster
Helena Bonham Carter
Nikki Blonsky
Keri Russell
Laura Linney

Best Supporting Actress:

Likely:

Cate Blanchett
Catherine Keener
Saoirse Ronan
Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton

Don’t Forget:

Ruby Dee
Jennifer Jason Leigh
Jennifer Garner
Vanessa Redgrave
Marisa Tomei

Best Supporting Actor:

Likely:

Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem
Hal Holbrook
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Tom Wilkinson

Don’t Forget:

Paul Dano
J.K. Simmons
Ben Foster
Ethan Hawke
John Travolta
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Post by cam »

Penelope wrote:Re: Giant--um, I thought Dean's performance was the most ghastly aspect of the film; Taylor and Hudson both give among the best performances of their careers.

REALLY!? The finale of the film has these young-then actors in blue wigs intoning their imitations of old-person-speak. Awful to me even as a teenager. And I was in love with James Dean( even had a red nylon jacket and white t-shirts), and although this was not his BEST film of the three he made, I was still first in line, and he could no no wrong as far as I was concerned.




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Post by Okri »

Penelope wrote:As for No Country vs There Will Be Blood; I've said this before, but No Country strikes me as a rather conservative choice; honestly, up until the last 15 minutes, it's really a rather conventional chase thriller, just expertly done. I don't see why anybody would consider it to be such a "daring" choice.
For me it's the pacing of the film, the darkness and the ending that makes it seem like an unusual choice. It's also a fairly muted piece (there's no easy catharsis, which I think the academy likes). That combination makes it seem, to me anyway, that it would be a fairly unusual entry in the academy's line-up (as a winner). And next to the line-up Mister Tee suggested, it would definitely be the least conservative of the bunch.
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Post by Penelope »

Re: Giant--um, I thought Dean's performance was the most ghastly aspect of the film; Taylor and Hudson both give among the best performances of their careers.

As for No Country vs There Will Be Blood; I've said this before, but No Country strikes me as a rather conservative choice; honestly, up until the last 15 minutes, it's really a rather conventional chase thriller, just expertly done. I don't see why anybody would consider it to be such a "daring" choice.




Edited By Penelope on 1199311023
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"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
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Post by cam »

Mister Tee wrote:the presence of There Will Be Blood on the ballot might drain crucial votes from No Country and prevent its winning best picture.

That is the issue, of course. There Will be Blood has only one thing against it, and that is the title: people expect a horror film. Day-Lewis is apparently a shoo-in for Best Actor (given the reviews that I have read) . Although No Country For Old Men has been riding a wave of popularity in the nominations stakes, I believe the After-New Year's momentum that MDB developed, will go to TWBB once Peoria discovers it is not Hallowe'en V or Saw IV.

I can't recall a really big oil film since Giant,( but someone here will point out several, I guess) and that film was spoiled for me by ghastly casting, with the possible exception of James Dean.

So it's time.




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Post by Mister Tee »

Okri wrote:I recall Mister Tee saying something about the 1969 race, that the nomination of Z likely helped Midnight Cowboy a bit because it looked less radical in comparison. Could the same thing be said of There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men?
I've considered this, Okri. But I've also considered the opposite -- that the presence of There Will Be Blood on the ballot might drain crucial votes from No Country and prevent its winning best picture.

Another model to consider -- the one that would argue for a Blood omission -- is 1977, when Annie Hall was, by a country mile, the most esthetically daring of the five nominees, but actually benefitted from it, as support for the other, fairly-retro contenders split the field and made for one of the most edifying and surprising results in Oscar history. If No Country goes up against American Gangster, Juno, Michael Clayton and Atonement, I'd say it could similarly slip through.

See, the problem with history is, there's an example and counter-example for just about anything. (And most things are made out inevitable in retrospect)
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Okri wrote:I recall Mister Tee saying something about the 1969 race, that the nomination of Z likely helped Midnight Cowboy a bit because it looked less radical in comparison. Could the same thing be said of There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men?
similar to A CLOCKWORK ORANGE making THE FRENCH CONNECTION look less extreme, so yeah NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN could definitely seem like the less severe of the two.
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Post by Okri »

I recall Mister Tee saying something about the 1969 race, that the nomination of Z likely helped Midnight Cowboy a bit because it looked less radical in comparison. Could the same thing be said of There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men?
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Post by Akash »

OscarGuy wrote:If this film gets nods for PGA and DGA, I think it may become the film to beat...or at least Ridley Scott the director to beat...


That's a horrible enough scenario that it actually could happen. At this point, I'd be shocked if No Country for Old Men wasn't nominated, but I wouldn't be shocked if another film -- like American Gangster-- suddenly pulled ahead with one or two Guild victories to Crash its way to Best Picture.




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Post by Zahveed »

American Gangster is possibly one of the only films I don't care to win this year. I don't mind a nom though; it's an alright movie but it's not great by any means. There needs to be one blockbuster in the running I suppose.
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