avril94 wrote:You forgot to add Mirren had never won before and was playing Queen Elizabeth. The point is the race is far from settled Cotillard has run a brilliant campaign and Christie barely campaigned at all.
You're right, I forgot that this was actually a competition of talent and merit, not some sort of half-assed student council election. Kudos to Christie for NOT campaigning. Another reason why I hope she wins.
Although Cotillard does certainly fit in the recent pattern of this category. Her performance is as overly mannered and uninspired as past winners like Theron, Berry and Kidman. This category is something of a joke these days, casting aside brilliant work for shrieking over-the-top monstrosities like these. I think if Cotillard somehow wins this (over such superior work of Christie and Page), it will go down as one of the worst winners ever in this category.
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
- Minor Myers, Jr.
You forgot to add Mirren had never won before and was playing Queen Elizabeth. The point is the race is far from settled Cotillard has run a brilliant campaign and Christie barely campaigned at all.
A plus for Cotillard... she's 32 years old... that nice and sweet age that academy voters just love... the beauty peagent lineup of thirtysomething (or younger) actress started with Hunt (34) over Dench and then:
- Paltrow (26) over Montenegro
- Swank (25) over Bening
- Roberts (33) over Blethyn
- Berry (34) over Spacek
- Kidman (35) over... actually this whole lineup was a beauty peagent contest...
- Theron (28) over Keaton
- Swank (30) over Staunton
- Witherspoon (29) over Huffman
This trend broke up last year and that was only because Mirren was unstoppable since the Venice Festival. She won avery major award. From the other nominees the only two that fit the criteria were Cruz (the foreign language factor and her film falied to grab a nod in the Foreign Language category) and Winslet (who suffered from the poor reception of her film and whom I hope won't become Debora Kerr) and their performances didn't match Mirren's.
But now Christie is a previous winner (though Blethyn wasn't a lock this could have hurt her chances, and certainly had some influence on Spacek's and Keaton's lost).
So here we are again on that known battle between the respected veteran with a major comeback performance but previously rewarded and the nice beauty young woman with a performance that hides her beauty and with mannerism (apparently, haven't seen the film) appeals both critics and audiences and seems like the next best thing. Unlike last year, both seem strong contenders based on precursors... Guess I'm going to give her the edge if only for this stupid logic...
"If you place an object in a museum, does that make this object a piece of art?" - The Square (2017)
The point is that I´ve never even imagined another winner than Christie. She was a lock to me since the beginning. That was the reason that I compared the situation with Berry´s win. Nobody expected her triumph, in spite the fact that I wasn´t upset. I considered her a legitimate winner. I liked her performance.
I don't think it would be a huge upset if she won her performance has all the attributes that usually generates oscar wins, the main thing against her has been the foreign language aspect.
avril94 wrote:Cotillard is gonna win of the 6 voters she got 50% and if linney and Page can siphon enough votes away from Christie she is in trouble this board might not know it but the best actress race has tightened up considerably. Cotillard is headed to the ceremony with A globe, a Bafta critics wins and playing a real life person 7 of the last 9 best actress winners have played real life characters.
Good point, Avril. So, Cotillard could be the surprise winner here. Remember Halle Berry in 2002?
Cotillard is gonna win of the 6 voters she got 50% and if linney and Page can siphon enough votes away from Christie she is in trouble this board might not know it but the best actress race has tightened up considerably. Cotillard is headed to the ceremony with A globe, a Bafta critics wins and playing a real life person 7 of the last 9 best actress winners have played real life characters.
Akash wrote:Sabin, this could just really be a weird mix of people. Or they could be fucking with EW. I mean not ONE VOTE for Julie Christie even though she already won the Globe and the SAG award?
It´s possible. There were many situations in the past in which Sag Winners didn´t get the Oscar. I wouldn´t say that nobody voted for them but it appeared to be that they received less votes than expected. (i.e. Eddie Murphy, Golden Globe and SAG winner, same as Paul Giamatti, Sag Winner, Johnny Depp, Sag Winner, Daniel Day Lewis, Sag winner in 2003, Christopher Walken also in 2003 in supporting, Russell Crowe, Globe and Sag winner in 2002, Ian Mc Kellen and Hellen Mirren both Sag winners the same year, Albert Finney, Sag Winner in 2001, Annette Bening sag winner in 2000, Robert Duvall an Kathy Bates Sag winners ins supporting roles in 1999, Lauren Bacall Globe and Sag Winner in 1997, Ed Harris and Kate Winslet in 1996 and Jodie Foster in 1995).
Sabin wrote:Oh, it's over. I've already committed to predicting Hal Holbrook but if not one voter will confess to voting for the old man's beautiful performance, I don't have a prayer.
Ditto.
That said, I wanted to smack the director for his Away from Her comment.
I think it's fairly obvious who the actor in this is in this: it's definately John C. Reilly.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
Sabin, this could just really be a weird mix of people. Or they could be fucking with EW. I mean not ONE VOTE for Julie Christie even though she already won the Globe and the SAG award?
Although I suppose it's bleaker for Holbrook since the Supporting Actor votes (all six of them!) all went to Bardem, whereas the Lead Actress votes were split among Cotillard, Page and Linney.
Oh, it's over. I've already committed to predicting Hal Holbrook but if not one voter will confess to voting for the old man's beautiful performance, I don't have a prayer.
They do this every year, they're not always right about everything, and of course this hardly constitutes a statistical "sample", but here it is nevertheless. What surprised me is that not one of them voted for Ruby Dee or freaking Julie Christie! Did EW just happen to pick an odd six or does this spell trouble for poor Christie?
ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY
Movie News
Meet the Deciders
Oscar voting sneak peak -- Find out how six anonymous Academy members cast their ballot
By Christine Spines
The writers' strike had at least one positive effect: Academy members actually had time to go to screenings this year. ''That's why we have nominees from a wider variety of movies, and more obscure films,'' says one Oscar voter. Will that mean a wider variety of winners on Feb. 24? EW asked six high-profile Academy members — an actor, an actress, a director, a producer, a studio executive, and a screenwriter — to tell us, anonymously, whom they voted for and why. If their answers are any indication, Daniel Day-Lewis and Javier Bardem can dust off their mantels. Julie Christie may end up empty-handed. And winning your Oscar pool may be a bit tougher this year.
The Actor
He has volleyed between comedy and drama, leading man and character roles, but our former Best Supporting Actor nominee is no waffler when it comes to this year's contenders, especially those that dive deep into the heart of darkness.
BEST PICTURE
There Will Be Blood
''Politically it's very applicable to what's happening in the world energy market right now. I think the reason people are not giving it the recognition it deserves is it's so uncommercial.''
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson
There Will Be Blood
''Reading EW's review that it was an instant classic, I thought, 'I f---in'-A agree with that!'''
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis
There Will Be Blood
''It's hands-down the best performance of the year. And he is one of the most elegant actors. His acceptance speeches have been so eloquent. And his dedication to Heath Ledger at the Screen Actors Guild awards...it was just tremendous.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem
No Country for Old Men
''He owns that movie. It's an unflinching, absolutely relentless performance.''
BEST ACTRESS
Ellen Page
Juno
''I'm really torn. I do think Julie Christie was wonderful. But Ellen Page is terrific. And I predicted she would win an Academy Award by the time she was 25.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Ryan
Gone Baby Gone
''Her last scene is balanced between sad and haunting.''
The Actress
She's played victims and screwball heroines, but don't underestimate the intelligence and talent of this one-time Best Supporting Actress nominee. She's a fan of nuanced, controlled filmmaking and seamless performances. And while she doesn't have a perfect record of seeing every nominated movie, she's refreshingly candid about Oscar politics. ''Sometimes you vote just to block somebody else from winning,'' she confesses. ''It's never 100 percent about merit, that's for sure.''
BEST PICTURE
No Country for Old Men
''There Will Be Blood is too dark. Michael Clayton is a little on the slick side. Atonement is unengaging. Juno is an oddball little film that got caught up in the mix. I liked No Country because it was so strange — it was kind of like The Getaway in this bleak landscape.''
BEST DIRECTOR
Joel and Ethan Coen
No Country for Old Men
''I guess I must be a fan of No Country. Every scene was pitch-perfect.''
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis
There Will Be Blood
''It was between Daniel and Johnny Depp, who is always astonishing, in Sweeney Todd. But if you think about it, all Johnny did was glower; Daniel took a character that was grandiose and depraved and made you care about him.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem
No Country for Old Men
''He was just electric. He's a good-looking guy who made himself repulsive.''
BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard
La Vie en Rose
''I think if enough people see La Vie en Rose, she could win. She just blew me away.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tilda Swinton
Michael Clayton
''Cate Blanchett's probably going to win, but I'm going to vote for Tilda. Her performance was note-perfect.''
The Director
Our insider, a Best Director winner himself who's adept at making warm, intimate films with broad appeal, laments the absence of high-gloss studio films like 'The Bourne Ultimatum.' Shall we cut right to the chase and tell you what floated his vote?
BEST PICTURE
No Country for Old Men
''It had the best blend of writing and directing while telling a story with interesting characters.''
BEST DIRECTOR
Joel and Ethan Coen
No Country for Old Men
''They struck the right balance: creating suspense in a story with an oddball sense of humor.''
BEST ACTOR
Tommy Lee Jones
In the Valley of Elah
''His performance was the most emotionally shattering piece of work of the year.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem
No Country for Old Men
''He was the craziest villain I'd seen in a long time. You definitely don't want to meet this person on the street.''
BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard
La Vie en Rose
''I keep hearing Julie Christie's going to win for Away From Her, but I don't know anyone who actually got through that movie. I don't think there's any other performance that comes close to Marion Cotillard's. She became another human being up there on the screen.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
I'm Not There
''You already know how good she is, and you're seeing her as a guy; that's pretty extraordinary.''
The Producer
A prolific filmmaker behind one Best Picture winner and numerous film and television projects, he has an affinity for unconventional narratives that push boundaries.
BEST PICTURE
No Country for Old Men
''It was very close between that and There Will Be Blood. They are very similar in tone in some ways. But No Country had me gripping the armchair. It was scary and real and visceral.''
BEST DIRECTOR
Joel and Ethan Coen
No Country for Old Men
''Paul Thomas Anderson comes in a close second for me. There Will Be Blood is the kind of late-breaking movie that comes in and wins a lot of favor, but it didn't affect me as strongly as No Country did.''
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis
There Will Be Blood
''It's such an over-the-top performance, but it's so powerful. You can't take your eyes off him the whole movie. I can't imagine anyone else winning.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem
No Country for Old Men
''Hal Holbrook is Bardem's competition, but I think Holbrook's a bit of a sentimental vote. A big part of the reason No Country was so haunting was because of Bardem.''
BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard
La Vie en Rose
''I'm voting for the person I don't think is going to win. But if all the voters see La Vie en Rose...there was no trace of Marion in that. It was all Edith Piaf.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Ryan
Gone Baby Gone
''She wasn't acting. She was so real, and it was so courageous. It stuck with you.''
The Executive
This former high-ranking studio exec enjoyed a lot of the contenders this year, but thinks Oscar could use more feel-good films.
BEST PICTURE
Juno
There are so many depressing movies out there. I wasn't a fan of Atonement or Michael Clayton. But I liked Juno from start to finish. And I didn't want to kill myself when I got out of the theater.''
BEST DIRECTOR
Julian Schnabel
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
''I don't think he'll win, but that film was very life-enhancing.''
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis
There Will Be Blood
''I was tortured by [the film], but I was also blown away by him.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem
No Country for Old Men
''I thought he was fantastic. I didn't know he had all that in him.''
BEST ACTRESS
Laura Linney
The Savages
''The Savages is my favorite picture of the year. I thought it touched upon so many things all of us are going through, and I just loved Laura Linney in it, even though she won't win.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
I'm Not There
''I thought she was great. It took a film biography and turned it on its head.''
The Screenwriter
This versatile scribe of period epics and genre flicks has won two Oscars. He was impressed with this year's crop of nominees, but not overly so. ''It was a B-plus year,'' he says. Although he prides himself on his normally contrarian voting habits, even he couldn't help endorsing a few front-runners.
BEST PICTURE
No Country for Old Men
''It was the only movie with gravitas, that really took on something: the existence of evil in the world. And it's wonderfully acted, shot, written, and directed.''
BEST DIRECTOR
Joel and Ethan Coen
No Country for Old Men
''They perfectly captured the spirit of the author.''
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis
There Will Be Blood
''Viggo Mortensen was terrific in Eastern Promises and very memorable, but memorable doesn't get you an Oscar. I would be fine if Day-Lewis got the award. He's a brilliant actor and we see him so rarely.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem
No Country for Old Men
''He should get it just because of how he was able to marshal his creative energy behind that character, which had so much force and presence and momentum.''
BEST ACTRESS
Laura Linney
The Savages
''I think she's one of our best actresses, and I don't think she's going to get a better role. I really love her.''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Ryan
Gone Baby Gone
''I haven't seen Gone Baby Gone yet. But I've seen better Bob Dylan impersonations than Cate Blanchett's. Tilda Swinton was off-the-rack. I thought the little girl in Atonement was terribly directed. And Ruby Dee in American Gangster was just turning in a Ruby Dee role. I'm hoping I'll be blown away by Amy Ryan and vote for her.''
