Uri, I'd say about the same time as Hal Holbrook.
Edited By Akash on 1202887628
Best supporting actress? - who will win?
Seriously. And if they cared about building suspense, they would say fuck the Oscar caste system and present supporting actress last of all the acting categories. The order should be thus: Bardem, Day-Lewis, Christie, SwintonDamien wrote:In any case, anyone who predicts this category correctly is just plain lucky.
The Original BJ wrote:Damien wrote:I think that's a fascinating take, BJ, but unfortunately for me the performance didn't work because I found her Dylan so annoying that I couldn't wait til she was off the screen and watching another Bob.
Hahaha, wouldn't you know it -- I almost wrote that Blanchett even dares to capture what can be annoying about Bob Dylan!
I knew that was Haynes's intent with the Blanchett's segments, but even at his most irritating, there was something fascinating and charismatic about Dylan, and I don't think Blanchett captured that.
Edited By Damien on 1202879535
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Hahaha, wouldn't you know it -- I almost wrote that Blanchett even dares to capture what can be annoying about Bob Dylan!Damien wrote:I think that's a fascinating take, BJ, but unfortunately for me the performance didn't work because I found her Dylan so annoying that I couldn't wait til she was off the screen and watching another Bob.
I thimk that's a fascinating take, BJ, but unfortyunately for nme the performance didn't work because I found her Dylan so annoying that I couldn't wait til she was off the screen and watching another Bob.The Original BJ wrote:I love Cate Blanchett in I'm Not There. I don't really think the point is that Blanchett realistically mimics Dylan (I mean, Marcus Carl Franklin doesn't suggest Dylan at all, but I still liked his performance), but that she so joyously captures the singer's sense of mischief, his charisma, his brashness. But most of all, through her stylized man-as-woman "performance" she conveys the idea of Dylan as showman, as non-stop performer (itself one of the main ideas woven throughout I'm Not There): this is stunt casting at its most sublime and I thought she was a complete hoot.
In Amy Ryan's favor: It seems that maybe a lot of Academy people hadn't seen Gone Baby Gone til Oscar time, so it could be that her performance is freshest in their minds.
In any case, anyone who predicts this category correctly is just plain lucky.
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I have no idea what is going on with this category. It's both the most unpredictable of the acting lineups, as well as the most impressive quality-wise, IMO, both of which combine to make it the most exciting.
For a while I thought Amy Ryan's recent string of losses might doom her, but now I'm almost wondering if the splintering of votes will lead us right back to a Ryan victory -- no one else has gained enough traction to move into front-runner position, and talk is always of Amy Ryan vs. "fill in the blank." Plus, being the early front-runner helps sometimes -- I doubt Atonement would have held on to those top nominations had it not been for default status.
I'd been thinking Swinton had a pretty good shot before her BAFTA win; now she's a major player. I like Swinton in Michael Clayton. Her role was underwritten, but I admired the way she imbued her character with a sense of desperation that wasn't handed to her in the script. Karen Crowder easily could have been played as a stock corporate shill, but Swinton's vulnerability took borderline-implausible behavior and made it frighteningly believable. This woman doesn't exemplify The System -- she remains an outsider who will never quite fit in with the big boys club, and her actions represent those of someone trying desperately, sadly, to compensate. Plus, the idea of Swinton with an Oscar is fine by me.
By that logic, I guess the idea of Ruby Dee with an Oscar should be fine by me, too. But the idea of someone winning an Oscar for such a lousy, miniscule performance tarnishes the good will I might have felt toward honoring a screen legend. The film stinks, too.
I love Cate Blanchett in I'm Not There. I don't really think the point is that Blanchett realistically mimics Dylan (I mean, Marcus Carl Franklin doesn't suggest Dylan at all, but I still liked his performance), but that she so joyously captures the singer's sense of mischief, his charisma, his brashness. But most of all, through her stylized man-as-woman "performance" she conveys the idea of Dylan as showman, as non-stop performer (itself one of the main ideas woven throughout I'm Not There): this is stunt casting at its most sublime and I thought she was a complete hoot. I had long felt, like most of you, that I'm Not There would be too bizarre for voters, but I'm puzzled that other outlets haven't made mention of this thought -- the Hollywood Reporter predicted Blanchett to win and I don't recall any words about the hurdles she'd have to overcome because of the nature of her film. (The HR also mentioned that Best Supporting ACTOR was the most unpredictable acting category this year, for what it's worth.)
Still, I'm probably rooting for Amy Ryan. While Blanchett was a lot of fun, Ryan's performance got me on a gut level, and I hope the power of her performance will affect enough voters that she snags the trophy. Plus, Blanchett will have plenty of future chances to snag a second Oscar, while Ryan's come-from-nowhere Cinderella story seems like a once in a lifetime occurrence.
Lastly, how rare is it that we have an acting category in which all FIVE of the nominees could possibly win? Yep, that's right, I still think Saoirse Ronan is a contender. Her film is a multi-nominated Best Picture candidate, she anchors the entire first hour with the most impressive performance in the film (I think they nominated the right Briony), and this category has often been kind to young girls. I do think she's the least likely to nab the trophy, but in categories where votes seem to be scattered every which way, Marisa Tomei's can sometimes happen.
For a while I thought Amy Ryan's recent string of losses might doom her, but now I'm almost wondering if the splintering of votes will lead us right back to a Ryan victory -- no one else has gained enough traction to move into front-runner position, and talk is always of Amy Ryan vs. "fill in the blank." Plus, being the early front-runner helps sometimes -- I doubt Atonement would have held on to those top nominations had it not been for default status.
I'd been thinking Swinton had a pretty good shot before her BAFTA win; now she's a major player. I like Swinton in Michael Clayton. Her role was underwritten, but I admired the way she imbued her character with a sense of desperation that wasn't handed to her in the script. Karen Crowder easily could have been played as a stock corporate shill, but Swinton's vulnerability took borderline-implausible behavior and made it frighteningly believable. This woman doesn't exemplify The System -- she remains an outsider who will never quite fit in with the big boys club, and her actions represent those of someone trying desperately, sadly, to compensate. Plus, the idea of Swinton with an Oscar is fine by me.
By that logic, I guess the idea of Ruby Dee with an Oscar should be fine by me, too. But the idea of someone winning an Oscar for such a lousy, miniscule performance tarnishes the good will I might have felt toward honoring a screen legend. The film stinks, too.
I love Cate Blanchett in I'm Not There. I don't really think the point is that Blanchett realistically mimics Dylan (I mean, Marcus Carl Franklin doesn't suggest Dylan at all, but I still liked his performance), but that she so joyously captures the singer's sense of mischief, his charisma, his brashness. But most of all, through her stylized man-as-woman "performance" she conveys the idea of Dylan as showman, as non-stop performer (itself one of the main ideas woven throughout I'm Not There): this is stunt casting at its most sublime and I thought she was a complete hoot. I had long felt, like most of you, that I'm Not There would be too bizarre for voters, but I'm puzzled that other outlets haven't made mention of this thought -- the Hollywood Reporter predicted Blanchett to win and I don't recall any words about the hurdles she'd have to overcome because of the nature of her film. (The HR also mentioned that Best Supporting ACTOR was the most unpredictable acting category this year, for what it's worth.)
Still, I'm probably rooting for Amy Ryan. While Blanchett was a lot of fun, Ryan's performance got me on a gut level, and I hope the power of her performance will affect enough voters that she snags the trophy. Plus, Blanchett will have plenty of future chances to snag a second Oscar, while Ryan's come-from-nowhere Cinderella story seems like a once in a lifetime occurrence.
Lastly, how rare is it that we have an acting category in which all FIVE of the nominees could possibly win? Yep, that's right, I still think Saoirse Ronan is a contender. Her film is a multi-nominated Best Picture candidate, she anchors the entire first hour with the most impressive performance in the film (I think they nominated the right Briony), and this category has often been kind to young girls. I do think she's the least likely to nab the trophy, but in categories where votes seem to be scattered every which way, Marisa Tomei's can sometimes happen.
Ah! After all this time -- we finally agree again! I knew we'd eventually find something else besides Elizabeth Mitchell. Yeah, Swinton was more deserving of a nomination than everyone but Spacek. I would have easily replaced Berry and Zellweger with Swinton and Naomi Watts, with Watts winning of course for Mullholland Drive.flipp525 wrote:Frankly, she should've been nominated for her bravura performance in The Deep End years ago.
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I agree Swinton should have been in there for The Deep End -- I liked her better than any of the year's actual nominees -- and I'm happy for her to be finally getting recognition. However, I'd be seriously displeased were she to win here. I don't think her work approaches what Ryan or Blanchett do. In fact, the other day I was thinking that an acting winners' slate of Day-Lewis, Christie, Bardem and either Ryan or Blanchett would be 100% "performances I found truly special" -- I can't recall the last time I've had that sense. Swinton would blow it all to hell.
Apropos the races in general, do most see things as I do?:
Supporting actress is a crap-shoot.
Though Magilla remains serenely confident, best actress only, in Cook Political Report terms, LEANS Christie.
By all historical standards, No Country for Old Men should win best picture...but its distance from the Academy's comfort zone makes it a nervous front-runner.
If Day-Lewis or Bardem fail to win, it will be jaw-dropper of Binoche-over-Bacall proportions.
Oscar pools will likely be decided in the techs -- the five classic categories (cinematography, costumes, art direction, sound mixing, editing) are all tough to call.
Apropos the races in general, do most see things as I do?:
Supporting actress is a crap-shoot.
Though Magilla remains serenely confident, best actress only, in Cook Political Report terms, LEANS Christie.
By all historical standards, No Country for Old Men should win best picture...but its distance from the Academy's comfort zone makes it a nervous front-runner.
If Day-Lewis or Bardem fail to win, it will be jaw-dropper of Binoche-over-Bacall proportions.
Oscar pools will likely be decided in the techs -- the five classic categories (cinematography, costumes, art direction, sound mixing, editing) are all tough to call.
Swinton should definitely be viewed as a genuine contender at this point. I thought she took a fairly typical buerocratic/litigator villainess role and injected it with some genuine human qualities that made her watchable and interesting. The nuances she infused in her character while Karen was preparing for television interviews and board meetings were impeccable and well-crafted. And I just love the look on her face when she turns around and George Clooney is standing right there. Priceless.
While I'm rooting for Amy Ryan, I certainly wouldn't be disappointed with a Swinton victory.
Frankly, she should've been nominated for her bravura performance in The Deep End years ago.
Edited By flipp525 on 1202850073
While I'm rooting for Amy Ryan, I certainly wouldn't be disappointed with a Swinton victory.
Frankly, she should've been nominated for her bravura performance in The Deep End years ago.
Edited By flipp525 on 1202850073
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Holt is a guy who has a super-cheap cable show here in NY.
My initial feeling after the critics' awards -- that Ryan was going to coast to victory -- was based on the premise that it was a two-person race (Blanchett/Ryan) and that, as Damien says, I'm Not There is the kind of movie that NEVER wins Oscars. The Ruby Dee SAG victory didn't strike me as significantly counter to my thesis, since American Gangster was overwhelmingly more widely seen than Gone Baby Gone -- often a factor in SAG wins -- and Dee of course had sentiment to sway a populist crowd like that. I still thought Ryan, in a film that wasn't a smash but wasn't exactly a flop either, would prevail over such a minor performance.
But the Swinton win Sunday knocked me for a bit of a loop. It suddenly struck me she's an entry holding strong cards: her film a best picture nominee, definitely-solid box-office, long-term career respect, and, now, something of a precursor. I think she's a genuine threat.
But what's so damnable about all therse precursors: now she's on our radar. Imagine if this hadn't happened, and Swinton won the Oscar for the reasons we're all now arguing. It'd be Adrien Brody territory. Now she's just a possibility everyone's already considered.
My initial feeling after the critics' awards -- that Ryan was going to coast to victory -- was based on the premise that it was a two-person race (Blanchett/Ryan) and that, as Damien says, I'm Not There is the kind of movie that NEVER wins Oscars. The Ruby Dee SAG victory didn't strike me as significantly counter to my thesis, since American Gangster was overwhelmingly more widely seen than Gone Baby Gone -- often a factor in SAG wins -- and Dee of course had sentiment to sway a populist crowd like that. I still thought Ryan, in a film that wasn't a smash but wasn't exactly a flop either, would prevail over such a minor performance.
But the Swinton win Sunday knocked me for a bit of a loop. It suddenly struck me she's an entry holding strong cards: her film a best picture nominee, definitely-solid box-office, long-term career respect, and, now, something of a precursor. I think she's a genuine threat.
But what's so damnable about all therse precursors: now she's on our radar. Imagine if this hadn't happened, and Swinton won the Oscar for the reasons we're all now arguing. It'd be Adrien Brody territory. Now she's just a possibility everyone's already considered.
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Well, Ryan may do well with the Great White Way crowd. Found this quote from a Stephen Holt (whoever he is) on Awards Daily:
I was at a big A list wing-ding this week and made a point (trying not to be an Oscar pest) to all that would answer me in the crowded party-like atmosphere, “Who do you think is going to win Best Supporting Actress?” I don’t know if all and sunday knew I was an Oscar journalist or not…but I was astounded at how easily everyone responded and the majority in the room, including Sylvia Miles…said “Amy Ryan” I nearly fell over. But there was one vote each for Saoirse, Ruby, Cate and yes, Tilda Swinton! So it was all over the place, but this NYC Broadway crowd all rated Amy Ryan over everyone else…But of course they are going to love her. She’s a Broadway stalwart. Now for sure a Broadway star!
I was at a big A list wing-ding this week and made a point (trying not to be an Oscar pest) to all that would answer me in the crowded party-like atmosphere, “Who do you think is going to win Best Supporting Actress?” I don’t know if all and sunday knew I was an Oscar journalist or not…but I was astounded at how easily everyone responded and the majority in the room, including Sylvia Miles…said “Amy Ryan” I nearly fell over. But there was one vote each for Saoirse, Ruby, Cate and yes, Tilda Swinton! So it was all over the place, but this NYC Broadway crowd all rated Amy Ryan over everyone else…But of course they are going to love her. She’s a Broadway stalwart. Now for sure a Broadway star!