BAFTA Winners

[The Original BJ]

I still have no idea how Amy Ryan fell off the Sure Thing bandwagon so easily. It would actually be a shock if she won now.

Yeah, seriously.

I am officially over this Ruby Dee b.s. She's in a dull film for five minutes and gave a lousy performance. I know she's everyone's new favorite prediction, but I have to believe voters won't make a choice ONLY based on sentiment -- which is the only criteria I could fathom anyone using to actually vote for her. I mean, Ruby Dee is a screen icon and she is adorable. Give her an honorary Oscar. But don't pretend she gave anything like an award-worthy performance in American Gangster when there are four other perfectly acceptable choices (and two great ones, IMO.)

I'm sticking to my guns that, given the strength of the other candidates, voters will resist Dee like they passed over Bacall and Stuart, preferring to honor more impressive performances in more artful films.

[Akash]

I still have no idea how Amy Ryan fell off the Sure Thing bandwagon so easily. It would actually be a shock if she won now.

[Hustler]

Damien Bafta's impact on the academy is not nil I believe 800 or so voters are also academy members. Last year all 4 bafta acting winners were oscar winners and Bafta did forshadow Arkin's upset at the oscars over Murphy. The fact that Cotillard beat an acting legend in her home turf is not insignificant, when you factor in the smallness of away from her and Christie's age and previous oscar win Cotillard is looking more and more like the Adrian Brody of this year.

In spite the fact that I consider Cotillard´s win a big surprise, that fact won´t affect Christie´s chances to finally emerge as this year Oscar winner.

[Akash]

I think people are discounting Ronan because she didn't win a lot of critics prizes like Amy Ryan, didn't win the Globe like Cate Blanchett, and didn't win SAG like Ruby Dee. Oh and she's not considered a critically acclaimed character actor like Tilda Swinton. Her nomination didn't even seem an almost sure thing, a lot of people were predicting Redgrave. If you look at it that way, she's fifth in this group.

That being said, with this category being so wonderfully wide open this year, fifth place perception may not prevent her from actually winning. She's good in her film, she's in a Best Picture nominee and if three of the contenders have too much going against them (Ruby Dee's scene is too short; Ryan and Blanchett are the only nominations for their respective films; Blanchett won recently) then her main competition may be Tilda Swinton.

And actually yeah, the more I think about it, the more I can totally see Swinton winning this. Michael Clayton was more loved by the Guilds (and if you count "top" nominations, more loved by the Academy) than Atonement, and if No Country cannot be denied, supporting actress is a good a place as any to give Michael Clayton a top award.

[flipp525]

Maybe she won't win, but suddenly her chances are as good as anyone else's (except for Ronan.)

Why are her chances so non-existent? She has a de-facto lead in her portion of the film, it's a child actor performance (they haven't awarded one of those since Anna Paquin, so it's been about 15 years), and she happens to be in a Best Picture nominee. In my mind, she has as good a chance as any of the four other women. No matter what, next to Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture, this is one of the most exciting races this year.



Edited By flipp525 on 1202759586

[Sonic Youth]

I don't know if Cotillard winning here means anything for the Best Actress race. But I wonder about Swinton. Ryan was the clear front-runner in the early goings, but there hasn't been much activity lately to suggest she'll win. Ruby Dee's SAG win may have been career appreciation and might not carry over. Blanchett, the Globe winner, is a beloved AMPAS staple, but "I'm Not There" isn't exactly a beloved film in AMPAS's eyes. On the other hand, Michael Clayton IS beloved and probably more so than any of the other films in the Supporting Actress slate. Maybe she won't win, but suddenly her chances are as good as anyone else's (except for Ronan.)

I usually love it when someone takes the anti-fashion route at the award shows, but that gown was vile even for me. And I've never really loved a Swinton performance before (except for "Broken Flowers"). She's fine, and that's as far as it goes. But now I'm smitten. Her hair, that short-cut red hair contrasting with her pale British skin? Beyond cool! As is her whole relaxed, slangy, loft-apartment demeanor. Who knew she was so punk??? All she needs now is a role to fit her real-life personality, and she might knock Samantha Morton off my personal Celtic punk-girl pedestal.

[Mister Tee]

Away From Her was something of a surprise; it wasn't nominated by the WGA and it eventually secured an Oscar nomination in the arguably more competitive adapted category this year.

No "arguably" about it. Gone Baby Gone, Into the Wild and Zodiac were all sadly excluded from adapted, while it's hard to work up that much enthusiasm for any of the nominated original scripts.

LaBoeuf's win (on top of Eva Green's last year) in the one category where the public can vote is a strong argument against democracy.

It seems people leapt into thinking of BAFTA as influential simply because BAFTA moved up its presentation and tried to claim itself so. Keep in mind, other winners last year were The Queen for best picture and Paul Greengrass for best director; that other awards coincided is not necessarily a sign of anything concrete.

One thing I'll say for Cotillard (for whom I'm clearly not rooting): I think alot of voters will be surprised/impressed that she's so much younger than she mostly was in the film. I'd have pegged her for about ten years older based on the performance alone.

[flipp525]

I can appreciate and even admire Tilda Swinton's sort of "I don't give a fuck what people think about me" attitude, especially when it comes to her appearance, but seriously…WTF was she wearing at the BAFTA's? It looked like she'd hot glue-gunned dead tarantulas to a mustard-colored suit jacket. Blech, that was just hideous.

On Cotillard: While there certainly were outside factors that enhanced her performance (heavy make-up, lip-syncing to fantastic music, etc), I think it's fairly clear from the meek and humble little French actress who accepted the BAFTA last night that she went beyond herself in creating her version of Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose. It was a good performance, theatrical in an over-the-top, French way, I suppose, but that was who the character was. I'm not of a mind that one performance has to be denigrated in order to lift another one above the crop. Julie Christie's luminous and transcendent performance as Fiona (which should win the Oscar) does not suffer from being in the same category as Cotillard. I think it's lame how you have to choose a side and then go on the attack of the other performance (or candidate, for that matter). It's just boring, overdone and typical. I'd rather reserve such ire for the nominated/winning performances that truly suck (i.e. Roberto Begnini).



Edited By flipp525 on 1202742576

[OscarGuy]

But by that token, Steph2, La Vie en Rose picked up nods in Costume Design and Makeup as well. So does it have those two branches voting for Cotillard?

And I don't think that Oscar voters will be turned off by "stunt" schticks as you put it. How many of those have we seen win Oscars? Many. Some good. Some bad. But it does happen. The thing you forget is that Cotillard dove into her role and became someone else. Actors LOVE method acting. Christie's acting while more subtle and still in a different method, is not as showy as Oscars tend to love.

I still think Christie will win, but after BAFTA's choice of Marion Cotillard, I think it's a significant possibility she could win.

The SAG awards have, on several occasions, chosen an actor who was either honored by the Oscars before they existed or actors with a bit of legend to their status. Christie's win COULD and I'm not saying that it is, but could be more a product of: "you don't have won, we respect your body of work, here have one."

The Academy has already recognized Christie which DOES damage her chances. Mirren and Dench didn't have Oscars when they won. Neither did Arkin, Landau or any of the other recent vet winners (even actors like Peggy Ashcroft and Jessica Tandy).

I don't know what will happen. We can all hope, but who really knows for certain.

[Damien]

Avril, you're so single-mindedly focused on Marion Cotillard's winning Best Actress that I'm beginning to think that you're Cotillard herself.

[Steph2]

My point was that Away From Her may be more popular than La Vie en Rose. Many prediction lists included The Savages as a potential screenplay nominee, but Away From Her was something of a surprise; it wasn't nominated by the WGA and it eventually secured an Oscar nomination in the arguably more competitive adapted category this year. Plus Linney was never a front-runner (many of us weren't even sure she'd be nominated) and if you read my post carefully, you'd see I also mentioned Christie's Globe and SAG win.

[avril94]

Yeah so the savages also got nominated for screenplay does that mean Linney is winning the oscar this means nothing.

[Steph2]

Away From Her was popular enough with the Academy's writing branch to snag a deserving but surprising Adapted Screenplay nomination, even though none of the major precursors had awarded anything from the film other than its lead actress. And since I can't see a majority of the acting branch (the largest voting bloc) choosing Cotillard's stunt-shtick over a lovely, rich performance by an acting legend who has already won a Globe and a SAG, I still think Christie is safe.

If anyone's beating her, it's newcomer Ellen Page - the only actress nominee in a Best Picture nominee.

[avril94]

Damien Bafta's impact on the academy is not nil I believe 800 or so voters are also academy members. Last year all 4 bafta acting winners were oscar winners and Bafta did forshadow Arkin's upset at the oscars over Murphy. The fact that Cotillard beat an acting legend in her home turf is not insignificant, when you factor in the smallness of away from her and Christie's age and previous oscar win Cotillard is looking more and more like the Adrian Brody of this year.

[Damien]

Huge boost for Cotillard and her film, especially if you consider she won in Christie's homeland.

That was an unfortunate and unhappy surprise, but I would say that the BAFTA's impact on Academy voters is nil. I think if anyone is going to stop Chtistie (not that I anticipate that)it's Ellen Page not the lip-syncher who's real accomplishment in La Vie en Rose was subjecting herself to up to 5 hours in the make-up chair each day.