Thus, Dee will win Supporting Actress which is not much of a surprise since she already has the SAG award.
Ruby Dee winning at this point would definitely be a surprise. It'd be an informed surprise (an outcome with some sort of explanation), but she has come out of nowhere in the last few weeks and was on very few radars earlier in the season. And, honestly, VanHelsing, I don't think any of your logic makes sense. Surprises are reserved for the end of the evening? I can think of countless examples of that not being true. And just because there is a shocker in one category, it doesn't mean that the corresponding gender category will automatically go to the frontrunner/predicted winner. All in all, I think there's been an over-reliance on statistics on this board as of late.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
Big Magilla wrote:... the only certain winners in the top six categories are Daniel Day-Lews and Julie Christie. I would be shocked to see anyone else win either of those awards, ...
Exactly!
So if Christie loses to Cotillard or Page, it's considered a surprise win for Cotillard or Page.
And if the Best Actress category already has a surprise winner, it is quite unlikely that the Best Supporting Actress will have the same too. Thus, Dee will win Supporting Actress which is not much of a surprise since she already has the SAG award.
Akash, get it?
I still feel that they're setting up the Best Actress category for an upset win by Cotillard. The Supporting Actress category winner will be announced first and surprises are usually kept towards the end of the show.
With a Southern accent...
"Don't you dare lie to me!" and...
"You threaten my congeniality, you threaten me!"
-------
"You shouldn't be doing what you're doing. The truth is enough!"
"Are you and Perry?" ... "Please, Nelle."
Good analysis, Big Magilla. On the Best Supporting Actress side, I think this is definitely one of the tightest races and will be a nailbiter right up until the envelope isopened. While I do think that Amy Ryan should win it in a walk for her brilliant, multi-faceted performance in Gone Baby Gone, you cannot deny the sentimental goodwill that is currently gaining around Ruby Dee. A well-respected Hollywood veteran delivering her movie's most authentic moment. Although cam may disagree, limited screentime should, in no way, bar her performance from being recognized. Another record that would be broken, besides oldest winner in this category, would be first back-to-back African-American winners in the same category.
I suppose the true shocker at this point would be if Tilda Swinton or Saoirse came out of nowhere to claim the prize for their quasi-villainous performances.
You officially get props if Day-Lewis and Christie both win because I do remember you being the first to tout that (and stick by it through thick and thin). Although, wasn't there a brief moment when you proclaimed that the high hopes for There Will Be Blood were lost? I think it lasted about a day.
Edited By flipp525 on 1201810593
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
I hate to sound like a broken record but I've been saying for some time now that the only certain winners in the top six categories are Daniel Day-Lews and Julie Christie. I would be shocked to see anyone else win either of those awards, but not shocked to see surprises in any of the other major categories, in fact I'm anticipating one or two.
In the best picture race anything can happen. No Country for Old Men is the presumptive favorite but after Brokeback Mountain's stunning loss two years ago, we know that the presumptive favorite is not always the winner. There Will Be Blood has been coming on strong as the critical favrorite even if its slow release schedule hasn't exactly allowed it to burn up the box office.
The PGA award means next to nothing. Last year's winner, Little Miss Sunshine, never really had a chance at the Oscar. It was too slight. Same holds true for Juno should that win this year. The producers like films that make money. A little film that costs next to nothing and makes a fortune is a producer's dream. Oscar voters generally vote for weightier fare.
Javier Bardem is a world class actor who should have won for Julian Schnabel's Before Night Falls seven years ago. Although his Hollywood film output has been limited to date, the youngest member of a Spanish acting family has an interesting resume going back to Jamon Jamon. He is also in pre-production for Nine, one of the most high profile forthcoming films. In short he is very much a star of the moment which makes him a highly popular favorite.
Hal Holbrook, however, is a formidable threat. He is a national treasure thanks to his stage production, Mark Twain Tonight, which he has painstakingly researched and updated for every performance over the last fifty years in order to keep it fresh and relevant. He has won numerous awards for his stage and TV work, but his films oputput has been anemic by comparison. He is not a movie star. He doesn't have the long time film career of a James Coburn or an Alan Arkin. If he is to win, it will not likely be because they think he's owed but because his film's many fans who feel disenfranchised by its poor showing in the overall nominations will consolidate behind him. The odds are against him, but still he's possible. Anyone else other than Bardem or Holbrook would be a huge surprise.
Cate Blanchett went into the race the presumptive favorite to win supporting actress, but newcomer Amy Ryan stole her thunder with most of the critics' awards. The SAG awards went with sentimental favorite Ruby Dee. Like Hal Holbrook, Ruby Dee is known for her stage and TV work, but unlike Holbrook, she has done outstanding work on screen before. She made her film debut in 1939, played Jackie Robinson's wife opposite the man himself in 1950's The Jackie Robinson Story, made a huge impression as Sidney Potier's wife in 1957's Edge of the City, won a National Board of Review award for again playing his wife in 1961's A Raisin in the Sun and played a memorable role in 1967's The Incident. In later years her career took a back seat to the more visible career of her late husband, Ossie Davis, but her short appearance in American Gangster reminded us that she's still around and still capable of working wonders with very little. Is it enough for Oscar? Maybe yes, maybe no. On the baiss of performance alone, Amy Ryan is the likely winner, but Oscars particularly in this category are not always about performance alone. Anyone in this category could win.
Precious Doll wrote:One aspect that is interesting this year is that the 4 acting winners could all be foreign born, which would be the first time this has happened since 1964 when Rex Harrison, Julie Andrews, Peter Ustinov and Lila Kedrova (please correct me if I'm wrong).
You mean: Blanchett as the winner in the suporting category?
One aspect that is interesting this year is that the 4 acting winners could all be foreign born, which would be the first time this has happened since 1964 when Rex Harrison, Julie Andrews, Peter Ustinov and Lila Kedrova (please correct me if I'm wrong).
Personally I don't think it's going to happen as Ruby Dee and maybe Hal Holbrook might spoil that.
But something that may hurt these two veterans in the voting is that Dee and Holbrook are probably not really that well known outside of the U.S.
To be honest I'd never heard of Ruby Dee until quite recently and I've always looked at Holbrook as a second tier supporting actor.
Edited By Precious Doll on 1201778626
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
VanHelsing wrote:For me, if the voters still stick with Christie for the win, then Blanchett will be the surprise winner but if they're gonna choose Dee as the sentimental favorite, then Cotillard will be the surprise winner.
I don't really see how any of those are related, Van.
I'm thinking that if NCFOM is gonna win Best Picture, Bardem will win too.
I think the Actor races are more or less locked up with Day-Lewis and Bardem being the eventual winners.
The Actress races are the more exciting ones, one of which is poised for an upset. Christie could easily lose to Cotillard or Page if the voters are turning their sights back on pretty and young talents. As for the supporting category, it's also a 3-way battle between Blanchett, Ryan and Dee.
For me, if the voters still stick with Christie for the win, then Blanchett will be the surprise winner but if they're gonna choose Dee as the sentimental favorite, then Cotillard will be the surprise winner.
For now, I'm predicting Cotillard and Dee for the wins.
With a Southern accent...
"Don't you dare lie to me!" and...
"You threaten my congeniality, you threaten me!"
-------
"You shouldn't be doing what you're doing. The truth is enough!"
"Are you and Perry?" ... "Please, Nelle."
Zahveed wrote:I'm thinking if Dee ends up with a win, Holbrook chances are lower. Two supporting awards for veterans seems unlikely to me in this race.
It´s possible. Remember 1999 when Judi Dench and James Coburn were the winners.
I´m doubting about supporting actress prediction. Dee could be replaced by Ryan or Blanchett. Even Swinton has a shot.
As for Bardem in supporting, What about Holbrook emerging as the surprising winner, as Arkin did last year.
I know we'll just make new ones after the PGA announces Saturday (or will they pick something outlandish making them irrelevant again?), but I have a couple of updates (which I haven't had time to update on my site yet) to my predictions.
Actor, Actress and Supporting Actress (Day-Lewis, Christie and Dee) don't change for me.
Supporting Actor, much as I'm loathe to admit it (really, the character's surprisingly one-dimensional), Bardem seems to be unstoppable at this point. I liked everyone else in No Country for Old Men better, even Tommy Lee Jones, whom I don't generally like. Of course, Josh Brolin is the star of the film and is by far superior to everyone else in it, but what are you to do when he's not a contender? So, Bardem shifts back to being my prediction, though I think many discount Holbrook's ability to rally the few Into the Wild supporters there are in the Academy (every star of the film and most of Sean Penn's closest friends, I'm sure) plus those who have general good will towards him for his long career (not to mention his wife's conservative contacts), he could pose a real threat. But, I can see an L.A. Confidential kind of thing happening. Critical favorite fares poorly elsewhere, but manages to pick up an acting trophy as thanks for its competition.
I'm also shifting my Best Picture prediction to No Country for Old Men. The film may not be the masterpiece others claim it to be (my opinion only, folks), but it seems to be building the kind of buzz that carried American Beauty to an Oscar. However, I do caution people that There Will Be Blood has been performing exceedingly well with audiences. People I heard extolling the virtues of No Country have all shifted their support to There Will Be Blood, so I wonder if it might not be that one rare classic that makes it all the way to the end. It needs PGA support (or PGA support to go to something other than No Country) to have a chance. If PGA picks No Country, then it will be a lock. The only three times SAG Ensemble, DGA and PGA agreed, American Beauty, Chicago and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King all carried through to Best Picture victory.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
