First Post-Oscar Nominations Predictions

[dws1982]

After seeing There Will Be Blood l ast night, I'm changing my prediction to No Country For Old Men for Picture/Director.

[dreaMaker]

I m surprised how negative you are about the songs from Enchanted. Is this only because you're frustrated your favorite songs haven t made it?
Last year we got only one good song, from Cars. And Listen was fine.

[Anon]

My predictions:

Picture: No Country for Old Men
Director: Coen Brothers, No Country for Old Men
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Actress: Julie Christie, Away from Her
Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Adapted Screenplay: Coen Brothers, No Country for Old Men
Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
Editing: No Country for Old Men
Cinematography: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Art Direction: Sweeney Todd
Costume Design: Elizabeth: the Golden Age
Make-Up: La Vie en Rose
Visual Effects: The Transformers
Sound Editing: No Country for Old Men
Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Score: Atonement
Song: anything NOT from Enchanted
Foreign Language: Beaufort
Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Animated Short: I Met the Walrus
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight
Documentary Short: Freeheld
Live Action Short: The Mozart of Pickpockets

[Big Magilla]

Picture: There Will Be Blood
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Actress: Julie Christie, Away from Her
Supp. Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Supp. Actress: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Orig. Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno Adapted Screenplay: Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Editing: There Will Be Blood
Score: Atonement
Song: "Falling Slowly", Once
Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Costume Design: Atonement
Make-Up: La vie en rose
Visual Effects: The Transformers
Sound Editing: There Will Be Blood
Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Foreign Lingo: The Counterfeiters
Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Documentary Feature: Sicko
Documentary Short: Freeheld (Sari's Mother)
Animated Short Film: My Love
Live Action Short Film: Tanghi Argentini

[Heksagon]

Runners-up in braces.

Picture: There Will Be Blood (No Country for Old Men)
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood (Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men)
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood (George Clooney, Michael Clayton)
Actress: Julie Christie, Away from Her (Ellen Page, Juno)
Supp. Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men (Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild)
Supp. Actress: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There (Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone)
Orig. Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno (Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton)
Adapted Screenplay: Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men (Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood)
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood (Assassination of Jesse James)
Editing: There Will Be Blood (The Bourne Ultimatum)
Score: Atonement (Ratatouille)
Song: "Falling Slowly", Once ("That's How You Know", Enchanted)
Art Direction: There Will Be Blood (Sweeney Todd)
Costume Design: Sweeney Todd (Atonement)
Make-Up: La vie en rose (Norbit)
Visual Effects: The Transformers (Pirates of the Caribbean 3)
Sound Editing: The Transformers (There Will Be Blood)
Sound Mixing: The Transformers (The Bourne Ultimatum)
Foreign Lingo: The Counterfeiters (Katyn)
Animated Feature: Ratatouille (Persepolis)
Documentary Feature: Sicko (No End in Sight)
Documentary Short: Freeheld (Sari's Mother)
Animated Short Film: My Love (Même les pigeons vont au paradis)
Live Action Short Film: Tanghi argentini (Om natten)

[dreaMaker]

Chances for winning:

PICTURE (Best Picture)
1. No Country for Old Men (very strong)
2. There Will Be Blood (strong)
3. Atonement (don't count out)
4. Michael Clayton (weak)
5. Juno (weak)

DIRECTING
1. No Country for Old Men - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen (very strong)
2. There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson (solid)
3. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Julian Schnabel (solid)
4. Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy (weak)
5. Juno - Jason Reitman (none)

ACTOR (Actor in a Leading Role)
1. Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood (very strong)
2. George Clooney - Michael Clayton (strong)
3. Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah (solid)
4. Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (don't count out)
5. Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises (don't count out)

ACTRESS (Actress in a Leading Role)
1. Julie Christie - Away from Her (strong)
2. Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose (strong)
3. Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age (solid)
4. Laura Linney - The Savages (weak)
5. Ellen Page - Juno (weak)

SUPPORTING ACTOR (Actor in a Supporting Role)
1. Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men (strong)
2. Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild (good)
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War (good)
4. Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (don't count out)
5. Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton (weak)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Actress in a Supporting Role)
1. Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There (solid)
2. Ruby Dee - American Gangster (good)
3. Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone (good)
4. Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton (weak)
5. Saoirse Ronan - Atonement (weak)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Juno - Written by Diablo Cody (strong)
2. Ratatouille - Screenplay by Brad Bird; Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird (strong)
3. Michael Clayton - Written by Tony Gilroy (strong)
4. Lars and the Real Girl - Written by Nancy Oliver (weak)
5. The Savages - Written by Tamara Jenkins (very weak)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. No Country for Old Men - Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (strong)
2. Atonement - Screenplay by Christopher Hampton (strong)
3. There Will Be Blood - Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson (strong)
4. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Screenplay by Ronald Harwood (good)
5. Away from Her - Written by Sarah Polley (good)

ORIGINAL SONG
1. "That's How You Know" - Enchanted - Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz (very strong)
2. "Falling Slowly" - Once - Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova (strong)
3. "So Close" - Enchanted - Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz (strong)
4. "Raise It Up" - August Rush - Nominees to Be Determined (good)
5. "Happy Working Song" - Enchanted - Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz (good)

ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Atonement - Dario Marianelli (strong)
2. Ratatouille - Michael Giacchino (strong)
3. 3:10 to Yuma - Marco Beltrami (solid)
4. Michael Clayton - James Newton Howard (weak)
5. The Kite Runner - Alberto Iglesias (weak)

FILM EDITING
1. No Country for Old Men - Roderick Jaynes (good)
2. Into the Wild - Jay Cassidy (good)
3. There Will Be Blood - Dylan Tichenor (good)
4. The Bourne Ultimatum - Christopher Rouse (good)
5. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Juliette Welfling (good)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - Roger Deakins (strong)
2. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Janusz Kaminski (strong)
3. Atonement - Seamus McGarvey (good)
4. No Country for Old Men - Roger Deakins (good)
5. There Will Be Blood - Robert Elswit (good)

ART DIRECTION
1. There Will Be Blood - Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson (solid)
2. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo (solid)
3. Atonement - Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer (solid)
4. American Gangster - Art Direction: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino (weak)
5. The Golden Compass - Art Direction: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock (weak)

COSTUME DESIGN
1. Elizabeth: The Golden Age - Alexandra Byrne (strong)
2. La Vie en Rose - Marit Allen (strong)
3. Atonement - Jacqueline Durran (good)
4. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Colleen Atwood (good)
5. Across the Universe - Albert Wolsky (weak)

MAKEUP
1. La Vie en Rose - Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald (good)
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - Ve Neill, Martin Samuel (good)
3. Norbit - Rick Baker, Kazuhiro Tsuji (weak)

SOUND MIXING
1. Transformers - Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell, Peter J. Devlin (Go, Kevin!)
2. No Country for Old Men - Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, Peter Kurland (good)
3. The Bourne Ultimatum - Scott Millan, David Parker, Kirk Francis (good)
4. 3:10 to Yuma - Paul Massey, David Giammarco, Jim Stuebe (don't count out)
5. Ratatouille - Randy Thom, Michael Semanick, Doc Kane (don't count out)

SOUND EDITING
1. Transformers - Ethan Van der Ryn, Mike Hopkins (very strong)
2. Ratatouille - Randy Thom, Michael Silvers (strong)
3. The Bourne Ultimatum - Karen Baker Landers, Per Hallberg (good)
4. There Will Be Blood - Matthew Wood (good)
5. No Country for Old Men - Skip Lievsay (good)

VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Transformers - Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl, John Frazier (very strong)
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson, John Frazier (don't count out)
3. The Golden Compass - Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris, Trevor Wood (weak)

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1. Ratatouille - Brad Bird (very strong)
2. Persepolis - Marjane Satrapi, Vincent Paronnaud (weak)
3. Surf's Up - Ash Brannon, Chris Buck (none)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. Mongol - Kazakhstan (strong)
2. 12 - Russia (strong)
3. The Counterfeiters - Austria (good)
4. Katyn - Poland (good)
5. Beaufort - Israel (don't count out)

DOCUMENTARY (Feature)
1. Sicko - Michael Moore, Meghan O’Hara (strong)
2 .War/Dance - Andrea Nix Fine, Sean Fine (good)
3. No End in Sight - Charles Ferguson, Audrey Marrs (good)
4. Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience - Richard E. Robbins (good)
5. Taxi to the Dark Side - Alex Gibney, Eva Orner (weak)

DOCUMENTARY (Short Subject)
1. Sari's Mother - James Longley (good)
2. Freeheld - Cynthia Wade, Vanessa Roth (good)
3. La Corona (The Crown) - Amanda Micheli, Isabel Vega (good)
4. Salim Baba - Tim Sternberg, Francisco Bello (good)

SHORT FILM (Live Action)
1. Il Supplente (The Substitute) - Andrea Jublin (strong)
2. Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets) - Philippe Pollet-Villard (strong)
3. At Night - Christian E. Christiansen, Louise Vesth (good)
4. Tanghi Argentini - Guido Thys, Anja Daelemans (weak)
5. The Tonto Woman - Daniel Barber, Matthew Brown (weak)

(OG: Removed extra line breaks. Was taking up too much space, 1/26/08)



Edited By OscarGuy on 1201386749

[Hustler]

They're also shared by many who haven't the guts to say it out loud.

Vanessa has the guts

[Heksagon]

Sean Penn IS nominated by the DGA for Into the Wild.

Well, that changes a lot, for some reason IMDB hasn't listed DGA nominees yet.

[Steph2]

Not having followed the race so closely this year, I have to ask: was it really such a huge surprise that Into the Wild did so poorly? It only got Golden Globe nominations in music categories, no DGA, no major critics' prizes (unless I missed some)... all it got was WGA and SAG nominations.

Sean Penn IS nominated by the DGA for Into the Wild. The film also garnered WGA and SAG nominations (including SAG Ensemble, which only ONE Best Picture nominee matched) as you said and yeah, that's an almost-sweep of the critics prizes that made it seem like a stronger Oscar contender than Atonement. (and I say this as someone who liked but didn't love Into the Wild)

A low GG tally can mean nothing if a film does well at the Guilds. After all Crash wasn't even nominated for Best Picture at the Globes.

[Heksagon]

Not having followed the race so closely this year, I have to ask: was it really such a huge surprise that Into the Wild did so poorly? It only got Golden Globe nominations in music categories, no DGA, no major critics' prizes (unless I missed some)... all it got was WGA and SAG nominations.



Edited By Heksagon on 1201341883

[The Original BJ]

Dreamgirls, Cold Mountain...those were all early contenders for Best Picture, yet slipped away at the end but still managed to take home acting prizes.

Of course, the differences are those films managed several tech nods and each received two acting nods.

I don't think there's much of a comparison there. For me, it's difficult to compare Cold Mountain and Dreamgirls, which missed the top races but still scored a healthy 7 and 8 nominations respectively, with Into the Wild, which all but collapsed rather suddenly.

Plus, Hudson and Zellweger were both heavy front-runners throughout the entire season. Had Holbrook swept the critics prizes maybe I'd change my tune, but I think an upset (over a pretty strong front-runner) will be hard to pull off.

[flipp525]

Dreamgirls, Cold Mountain...those were all early contenders for Best Picture, yet slipped away at the end but still managed to take home acting prizes.

Jennifer Hudson steamrolled the competition and dominated the critic's awards the whole season. Renee Zellweger, up for her third Oscar in a row at the time, was largely seen as "due".

[OscarGuy]

Dreamgirls, Cold Mountain...those were all early contenders for Best Picture, yet slipped away at the end but still managed to take home acting prizes.

Of course, the differences are those films managed several tech nods and each received two acting nods.

[The Original BJ]

Two points:

First, given the collapse of Into the Wild, I'm having a very difficult time seeing Hal Holbrook as an upset winner, veteran or not. In my lifetime, I've never seen a film booted from so many possible major categories, and I have to conclude that it just wasn't as thrilling to the Academy as it was to other groups. Given that No Country is a nomination leader, and Bardem seems to be its biggest talking point (of many), I have a hard time seeing him losing. The female acting categories seem far more ripe for an upset.

Second, I think everyone has the Juno screenplay down for the win based on Little Miss Sunshine's victory last year. Sure, Michael Clayton may have been a more certain nominee, and has more nominations -- but neither of those factors helped The Queen last year (that even had a clean sweep of early screenplay trophies, including the Globe). I think quirky comedy, especially overwritten dialogue, screams screenplay Oscar more than subtler dramatic character pieces. (This year, unlike last year, I'm ambivalent about the win -- neither Juno nor Michael Clayton thrill me, but I enjoyed the writing in both and don't particularly care either way which film wins. I'd appall Damien and vote for the rat.)

[cam]

Right now, but it undoubetedly will change:
Picture: Juno
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress Ellen Page
Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck
Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan
Screenplay: Juno( or Savages)
No Country For Old Men