First Post-Oscar Nominations Predictions

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Post by VanHelsing »

Best Picture: No Country For Old Men (or There Will Be Blood)
Best Director: Joel & Ethan Coen (or Paul Thomas Anderson)

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard (or Ellen Page)
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (or Johnny Depp)

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (or Amy Ryan)
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem (or Hal Halbrook)

Best Original Screenplay: Juno (or Michael Clayton)
Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country For Old Men (or There Will Be Blood)




Edited By VanHelsing on 1201335988
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Post by dws1982 »

Mister Tee wrote:Does everyone really think this "Kevin O'Connell must win" campaign is so effective it'll get people to vote for a Michael Bay movie?
I mentioned it earlier, but I'll repeat: Kevin O'Connell's nomination was one of the first things I saw some of the news shows (Good Morning America, etc) pick up on. This is one of the few times in a technical category--especially one like Sound, with so many nominees--where a good chunk of the voters will know that a certain person is nominated and what film they're up for. Will it be enough for the win? I'm not sure. Like you said earlier, Transformers has a more respectable aura about it than those previous Bay spectacles, but I really do think there's a possibility that Transformers will get pushed over the top by O'Connell. O'Connell wasn't going to win last year, up against war movies and musicals, but Transformers is the kind of big grossing pretty-well-liked blockbuster that sometimes wins this category. (So is Bourne, and I think it has a very real shot.)
dws, you're correct that Dennis Bee (where is he?) and I have long argued against the film/director split, but what we've especially argued against is any split along the lines of one-for-you, one-for-me -- as in, No Country for best picture/Anderson for best director or vice versa (or Million Dollar Baby for picture, Scorsese for director three years ago). When the split does happen, it's almost always a case of a best picture that's considered a bit light/comfort food-ish and a directing winner that's too dark/controversial (Dennis further suggests the winning director is generally American, and almost always better-known/publicized than the director of the best picture). Most of the splits in the modern era fit that paradigm -- Shakespeare/Spielberg, Gladiator/Traffic, Chicago/Polanski. Even Crash, though more "dramatic" than the others, is closer to TV/soothing than Brokeback.

Here's the thing I'm seeing: Both No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood would be unconventional Best Picture winners, the kinds of movies that have to win Director in order to really contend in Picture. (Under no scenario can I picture Anderson winning Director and No Country winning Picture, or Coens for Director and Blood for Picture.) At the same time, they do seem to fit the normal mold of Director winners in Pic/Director splits.

So looking toward a split, I have a hard time finding the beneficiary in the split. Forget Atonement--it's the too-early frontrunner than somewhat surprisingly managed to hang onto a Best Picture nomination. (Think Munich.) Michael Clayton seems like that movie that no-one really doubted for a second would be nominated for Best Picture, but no one really thought it a chance at actually winning (Think The Queen, Good Night and Good Luck, Finding Neverland, and so on.) And then there's Juno, which seems like the broadly-liked entertainment, the big word-of-mouth hit that could upset. It got that surprise Directing nomination, which is probably the only reason it has much of a shot at all. (Isn't it kind of odd that Atonement is the Picture-not-Director film, while Juno and Michael Clayton--films that feel like very conventional candidates for that slot--pull their directors in? I guess it just shows that Atonement got in by the skin of its teeth, but it still feels like a strange choice.) But...I'm not feeling it for some reason. I feel like if it were going to stage a coup, there would've been some kind of a sign already...a Globe win for something instead of the shutout it received--surely it would become the first Best Picture winner that lost the Globe to a movie not even up for Picture at the Oscars. I just have a hard time seeing it pull off an upset for Best Picture--there seems to be something missing and I'm not sure what it is.
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Post by Big Magilla »

Julie Christie's views on Hollywood are well known. They're also shared by many who haven't the guts to say it out loud. Comments like that will only serve to bolster her popularity and I wouldn't be surprised if she knew that. Besides, I think she'd want to be there just to pay tribute to Sarah Polley with whom she's worked on three films now.
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Post by OscarGuy »

Greg wrote:Well, Kate Hepburn never went and she won four times. George C. Scott won even though he said ahead of time he wouldn't accept it.
Well, let's hope then. :)

Then again, I'd be satisfied with a Cotillard win. But please no Ellen Page...
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Post by Greg »

Well, Kate Hepburn never went and she won four times. George C. Scott won even though he said ahead of time he wouldn't accept it.
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Post by OscarGuy »

I can't believe she actually said this. If this gets around, she could be left out despite general concensus she was the year's best.

Julie Christie Wants To Skip Oscars


Oscar-nominee Julie Christie would love to boycott next month's Academy Awards, but she's scared it would destroy her career. The actress - who first won an Oscar his 1965 for her role in Darling - has picked up a new nod for her role as an Alzheimer's disease sufferer in Away From Her. Speaking before discovering her nomination on Tuesday - the 67-year-old confessed she is tempted to make a stand and stay away. She said, "I just don't have the guts not to go. It's pathetic, truly, to admit this, but even now I don't think I could deal with pissing off the media and all they'd say. I mean, what if I won and wasn't there? I don't care about pissing off 'Hollywood' because it really doesn't exist anymore. But pissing off the media? It was difficult when I was a girl, and they're not any kinder now. I just hate not being strong enough."
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Post by Mister Tee »

I'm not ready to set down any predictions -- especially since I haven't even seen There Will Be Blood -- but a few things about what others have posted, on which I wanted to comment:

Does everyone really think this "Kevin O'Connell must win" campaign is so effective it'll get people to vote for a Michael Bay movie? Granted, the Spielberg imprimatur helps removes some of the stink, and Transformers isn't considered as bad as Bay's other work. But it seems to me that, even if you view this category as Least Offensive Loud Blockbuster, more people would be inclined to go for Bourne, and it's mostly the Susan Lucci effect that people are counting on to push Transformers past it. Why? Such reasoning has never had much impact in the past in tech categories. (O'Connell could just as easily have won last year and didn't)

I'm also a bit surprised at the unanimity on Juno for screenplay. The directing nomination obviously helps, but Michael Clayton, with its 7 nominations, seems like it deserves a little support here. Cody has had a mountain of hype, but I wonder if her exotic background is as appealing to Oscar voters as it is to the folks at the fan-zines -- or if Tony Gilroy's years of laboring in the studio gulag might hold more sway in a close race.

The way people are dividing between No Country and Blood scares me a little -- it calls up memories of Streetcar/Place in the Sun, the dark contenders of '51 who watched as the light-hearted American in Paris slipped past. Juno would be the most obvious analogy there.

dws, you're correct that Dennis Bee (where is he?) and I have long argued against the film/director split, but what we've especially argued against is any split along the lines of one-for-you, one-for-me -- as in, No Country for best picture/Anderson for best director or vice versa (or Million Dollar Baby for picture, Scorsese for director three years ago). When the split does happen, it's almost always a case of a best picture that's considered a bit light/comfort food-ish and a directing winner that's too dark/controversial (Dennis further suggests the winning director is generally American, and almost always better-known/publicized than the director of the best picture). Most of the splits in the modern era fit that paradigm -- Shakespeare/Spielberg, Gladiator/Traffic, Chicago/Polanski. Even Crash, though more "dramatic" than the others, is closer to TV/soothing than Brokeback.

So, if you're going to call for a split this year, it should be on the basis that the best directing winner (Coens or Anderson) is too out there, and your best picture choice should be Juno or, maybe, Michael Clayton. (And we'll have our early favorite for directing almost immediately, as DGA is, unbelievably, this Saturday)
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Post by Precious Doll »

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Director: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Best Supporting Actor: Hal Halbrook - Into the Wild
Best Supporting Actress: Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Best Original Screenplay: Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Best Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Best Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters
Best Film Editing: No Country for Old Men
Best Cinematography: No Country for Old Men
Best Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Best Costume Design: La Vie en Rose
Best Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Best Sound Mixing: Transformers
Best Sound Editing: There Will Be Blood
Best Visual Effects: Transformers
Best Original Score: Atonement
Best Original Song: "Falling Slowly" from Once




Edited By Precious Doll on 1201074663
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Post by anonymous1980 »

Early winners predictions (pre-Guild):

BEST PICTURE: No Country for Old Men
BEST DIRECTOR: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
BEST ACTRESS: Julie Christie, Away from Her
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Saoirse Ronan, Atonement (I know. I just have this feeling.)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Diablo Cody, Juno
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Ratatouille
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Counterfeiters (Austria)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men
BEST FILM EDITING: Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Identity
BEST ART DIRECTION: Dante Ferreti & Francesca LoSchiavo, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Dario Marianelli, Atonement
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Falling Slowly", Once
BEST SOUND MIXING: Transformers
BEST SOUND EDITING: There Will Be Blood
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Transformers
BEST MAKEUP: La Vie En Rose
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: No End In Sight
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Post by OscarGuy »

He's not dying, cam, so I would assume not.
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Post by paperboy »

Best Picture - There Will Be Blood
Best Director - Coen Brothers
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress - Julie Christie
Best Supporting Actor - Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress - Cate Blanchett
Best Original Screenplay - Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay - There Will Be Blood
Best Score - Atonement
Best Song - "Falling Slowly"
Best Cinematography - There Will Be Blood
Best Film Editing - No Country For Old Men
Best Art Direction - There Will Be Blood
Best Costume Design - Atonement
Best Makeup - La Vie en Rose
Best Sound Mixing - No Country For Old Men
Best Sound Effects - Ratatouille
Best Visual Effects - Transformers
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Post by cam »

My top six:
There Will Be Blood
P T Anderson
Daniel Day-Lewis
Julie Christie
Javier Bardem
Amy Ryan

Do any of you think that Depp is going to get a Butterfield 8 award?
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Post by Sabin »

Gosh...

Best Picture - There Will Be Blood
Best Director - Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Best Actress - Ellen Page, Juno
Best Supporting Actor - Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Best Supporting Actress - Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There (but really, anybody except Ronan)
Best Original Screenplay - Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay - No Country for Old Men
Best Score - Atonement
Best Song - "Falling Slowly", Once
Best Cinematography - There Will Be Blood
Best Film Editing - The Bourne Ultimatum (but really, no idea. it could be anybody but I doubt it'll be Joel & Ethan Coen again. 'Into the Wild' wasn't ACE nodded)
Best Art Direction - There Will Be Blood
Best Costume Design - Atonement
Best Makeup - La Vie en Rose
Best Sound Mixing - Transformers
Best Sound Effects - Transformers
Best Visual Effects - Transformers
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Post by dws1982 »

Dennis Bee has said that his nomination-day predictions have often been better than his final predictions. This is true for me too--last year, I saw the Alan Arkin upset coming on nomination morning, and then backed off in my final predictions--but I'm not sure if it'll be the case this year. It seems like a tough year.

Picture:
There Will Be Blood
- It seems to be peaking at the perfect time, while I fear that No Country's moment may have passed.
RU: No Country For Old Men
Out: Everything else.
- Atonement taught us not to discount the Globes picks for Best Drama, but it's the first winner of that award in years goes into the race desinted to be an also-ran, like Scent of A Woman.

Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson
- Mister Tee and Dennis have mentioned again and again: Never bet on the split. DGA to the Coens changes things obviously.
RU: Coens
Out: Everyone else.
- Schnabel's film isn't up for Best Picture, and the other two feel an awful lot like those kinds of movies that are usually up for Picture but not Director.

Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis
Out: Everyone else.
- I don't usually call locks this early, but Day-Lewis seems to be far, far out front. Jones won't the win--surprise nominees don't upset in the Lead categories. Mortensen too; like Jones, he's the sole nominee for his film, and they don't usually win unless they're the frontrunner going into the nominations. Clooney has that Oscar from two years ago to keep him company, and Depp's performance is way too divisive to win. So Daniel Day-Lewis becomes the first non-American to win two Best Actor Oscars.

Actress:
Julie Christie
RU: Marion Cotillard and Ellen Page
Long shot: Laura Linney
Out: Blanchett
- I don't think Christie has this locked up. Her movie is small, and opened a long time ago, although the surprise screenplay nomination is good for her prospects. Cotillard gave a big, striking performance in a movie that did surprisingly well at the box-office, but she's not an international star like Loren, or the writer/director/star of a big Cannes hit, like Benigni. Page is in the Best Picture nominee, and has Ebert in her corner, which helped Theron and (especially) Berry, but since his recent health problems, he's become an embarassment (I know, some are thinking that he was before, but he's really taken a noticeable downturn), and I get a feeling that he isn't taken as seriously as he was a few years ago. And Linney, may have a shot, just because in a four-way race like this, she could slip between the frontrunners, but it'd be a huge surprise.

Best Supporting Actor:
Hal Halbrook
- Because I want it, dammit. It's the kind of performance, and he's the kind veteran journeyman who often wins here, so I don't think it's an insane possibility. Plus, his status as the oldest Supporting Actor nominee ever has been headlined by some articles as one of the stories of the morning.
RU: Javier Bardem
Long shot: Casey Affleck and Tom Wilkinson
- Because Wilkinson is in a Best Picture nominee likely to be otherwise shut out, and Afleck has had a hell of a breakthrough year. But those breakthroughs generally win more in Supporting Actress rather than Supporting Actor.

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Ryan
RU: Cate Blanchett
Long shot: Ruby Dee, Saoirse Ronan, Tilda Swinton
- I almost put Blanchett in the longshots, because movies as unpopular as I'm Not There generally run into roadblocks with Oscar voters, even if their nominated performances are highly regarded. (See Day-Lewis, Daniel, 2002.)

Best Original Screenplay:
Juno
RU: Michael Clayton, Ratatouille
Out: Everything else.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
No Country For Old Men
RU: There Will Be Blood
Longshot: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Out: Everything else.
- I think No Country will win here, whether or not it wins Picture/Director, since its screenplay has been more widely recognized than Blood's.

Best Cinematography:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
- It seems to be a more traditionally Oscar-friendly (in terms of its cinematography) candidate than No Country. And if Deakins loses, it's because of the strength of the category, rather than his votes splitting.
RU: There Will Be Blood, No Country For Old Men
Long shot: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Atonement

Best Editing:
No Country For Old Men
RU: There Will Be Blood
Long Shot: The Bourne Ultimatum
Out: Everything else

Best Art Direction:
There Will Be Blood
RU: Sweeney Todd
Out: Everything else.
- I'm glad they're actually nominating films set in the not-too-distant past, but Gangster is too modern for this, The Golden Compass is too much of a bomb, and Atonement seems more likely to get the Costume award.

Best Costume Design:
Atonement
RU: La Vie En Rose, Sweeney Todd
Out: Everything else

Best Makeup:
La Vie En Rose
Out: Everything else.

Best Original Score:
Atonement
Out: Everything else
- Atonement gets its parting gift.

Best Original Song:
"Falling Slowly", Once
Out: Everything else

Best Sound Mixing:
Transformers
- Kevin O'Connell was singled out as one of the stories of nomination morning (Good Morning America had a thing about him right after the nominations were announced), and he's got a solid vehicle. It's a blockbuster, but not an embarassment the way Armageddon was, and there's no competing musical, and the Best Picture nominee isn't overtly loud enough to win.
RU: The Bourne Ultimatum
Long shot: No Country For Old Men, Ratatouille, 3:10 To Yuma

Best Sound Editing:
There Will Be Blood
RU: The Bourne Ultimatum, Ratatouille
Long shot: No Country For Old Men, Transformers
- I don't know.

Best Visual Effects:
Transformers
RU: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Out: The Golden Compass

Best Animated Film:
Ratatouille
RU: Persepolis
Out: Surf's Up

Don't know enough about Foreign/Docs yet.




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Post by MovieWes »

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Director: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen- No Country for Old Men
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis- There Will Be Blood
Best Actress: Julie Christie- Away from Her
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem- No Country for Old Men
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone
Best Original Screenplay: Juno- Diablo Cody
Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men- Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Best Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Best Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Best Film Editing: No Country for Old Men
Best Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Best Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Best Costume Design: Atonement
Best Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Best Sound Mixing: Transformers
Best Sound Editing: There Will Be Blood
Best Visual Effects: Transformers
Best Original Score: Atonement- Dario Marianelli
Best Original Song: "Falling Slowly" from Once
Best Documentary Feature: No End in Sight
Best Documentary Short Subject: Sari's Mother
Best Animated Short Film: Peter & the Wolf
Best Live-Action Short Film: Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)
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