Psychic Oscar Prediction Contest

[atomicage]

I love Wong Kar-wai, but even I have my limits...

There are few films I want to see more than 'My Blueberry Nights', but c'mon. What are the chances it's going to be a substantial hit nationally, let alone coherent?

The deadline for this contest is May 15. The Wong Kar-wai film is the opening night attraction at the Cannes Film Festival. I forget the exact date when the festival starts but I think this deadline period should cover this film. If it gets scathing reviews I can always get rid of Norah Jones from my list.

Same with me as well. It all depends on its Cannes premiere. If it does critically well, I'm keeping it. If not, it will stay under Screenplay, but probably not Actress.

[Reza]

I love Wong Kar-wai, but even I have my limits...

There are few films I want to see more than 'My Blueberry Nights', but c'mon. What are the chances it's going to be a substantial hit nationally, let alone coherent?

The deadline for this contest is May 15. The Wong Kar-wai film is the opening night attraction at the Cannes Film Festival. I forget the exact date when the festival starts but I think this deadline period should cover this film. If it gets scathing reviews I can always get rid of Norah Jones from my list.

[OscarGuy]

I'd love to "consider" Ryan Gosling...but his film is too slight and isn't likely to be remembered at Oscar time.

[99-1100896887]

Please consider Ryan Gosling in Fracture.

[Sabin]

I love Wong Kar-wai, but even I have my limits...

There are few films I want to see more than 'My Blueberry Nights', but c'mon. What are the chances it's going to be a substantial hit nationally, let alone coherent?

[Reza]

Bardem beating Day-Lewis and Depp? Interesting.

Burton for Director? I'd love it, but I just don't think it will happen... not at this point in the ballgame, at least.

My predictions are most probably all wrong but felt that Bardem is appearing in an adaptation of an acclaimed book and he is well respected amongst actors. Day Lewis has already won once (not that this is any indication of him not winning again) and Depp, although ''due'' (in some circles - certainly not mine), will win sometime in the future for something that is not one of his usual eccentric parts.

I also added Norah Jones in the best actress lineup and got rid of Pfeiffer. And she wins the award to boot. My previous ''winner'' was Christie. It would be such a rush for me if both Christie and Redgrave won. Though ideally I would want Redgrave's second Oscar to be in the lead category.

[atomicage]

Bardem beating Day-Lewis and Depp? Interesting.

Burton for Director? I'd love it, but I just don't think it will happen... not at this point in the ballgame, at least.

[Reza]

Absurd to post predictions so far in advance but what the heck! As it is, sentimental choices get in my way and even at the homestretch I come up with all the wrong predictions - even when front runners are staring me in the face. So here goes:


Best Picture
American Gangster
*Atonement
The Golden Age
Rendition
There Will Be Blood

Best Actor
*Javier Bardem, Love in the Time of Cholera
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Golden Age
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
Julie Christie, Away From Her
*Norah Jones, My Blueberry Nights
Reese Witherspoon, Rendition

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Reservation Road
Clive Owen, The Golden Age
Alan Rickman, Sweeney Todd
Mark Ruffalo, Reservation Road
*Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Samantha Morton, The Golden Age
*Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Meryl Streep, Rendition
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Best Director
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Gavin Hood, Rendition
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
*Joe Wright, Atonement

Original Screenplay
Lions for Lambs
Margot at the Wedding
Michael Clayton
Rendition
*The Savages

Adapted Screenplay
*Atonement
Evening
Love in the Time of Cholera
Reservation Road
There Will Be Blood

[atomicage]

I too think that this could be Depp's year depending on how well it turns out. He is one of those actors that you just KNOW will won day get a 'golden boy' (DiCaprio and Kate Winslet are a few others).

I will for a time put Bonham-Carter as Actress... but something feels weird about doing so, despite the role's popularity. We'll see.

[Big Magilla]

Interestingly enough last time Bonham (no hyphen) Carter competed with Christie, they were half of the British group that notoriously lost to Helen Hunt, the other half consisting of two of this year's runners-up, Judi Dench and Kate Winslet.

Even if they were thinking about shoehorning Bonham Carter into the supporting category, I don't think they'd want to risk putting her up against Redgrave if she's already such a prohbitive favorite. Redgrave's last nomination came for supporting Bonham Carter and that year's winner, Emma Thompson, in Howards End.

A bit of trivia: Bonham Carter is likely to bristle at anyone putting a hyphen in her name. She once publicly chided Daniel Day Lewis for changing his name to Day-Lewis. He said he did it because he was sick of people in America referring to him as Mr. Lewis.

[OscarGuy]

I really don't think they'll push Bonham-Carter as supporting. The reason the role of Mrs. Lovett gets so much attention is that it's a tour-de-force kind of roll. If it's done right, people won't be talking about Depp, they'll be talking about Bonham-Carter, because that's what happens with Sweeney Todd...I also think Depp will pick up his Oscar for this film if it's a success. Bonham-Carter is going to have to overcome serious competition from Julie Christie, though.

[Big Magilla]

Good points about lead vs. supporting, which we've discussed quite a bit over the years. Basically the voters follow the wishes of the stars, their promoters and the studios when considering lead vs. supporting placement. In general the lesser known player will defer to placement in the supporting category so that the better known star can compete in the lead.

Actresses playing Mrs. Lovett from Angela Lansbury to Patti LuPone have been billed over the actors playing Sweeney Todd from Len Cariou to Michael Cerveris since 1979. Granted this may be because the actresses are generally better known than the actors. In the case of Depp and Bonham Carter, Depp may be the bigger draw and may even warrant solo billing over the title for commercial purposes, though that would be an injustice to Bonham Carter who is far from an unknown. She has a previous best actress nod for Wings of the Dove for which she won numerous critics' awards as well as an Emmy nomination for best actress for Love From Bagdad and a well deserved best actress Genie (Canadian Oscar) for Margaret's Museum. She's also Tim Burton's long time paramour. It would a slap in the face to dump her into supporting. I could be wrong, but I just don't see it happeneing if for no other reason than to maintain peace in the Burton-Bonham Carter household.

[atomicage]

Just out of curiosity, when did Mrs. Lovett become a supporting character in Sweeney Todd? This isn't a criticicism of atomicage, Jeffrey Wells, whom some of you esteem, also has Helena Bonham Carter listed as support.

At the same time that Conrad Jarrett became a supporting character in "Ordinary People"? Personally, I don't agree with him as supporting any more than I believe Lovett as one. But in the end, it's up to the voters. Somehow, despite the fact that it is utterly ridiculous, Dustin Hoffman's character in "Rain Man" was considered the male lead, when in fact the film is about Tom Cruise, who recieved 'supporting' credits. "Last King of Scotland"'s James McAvoy was in my strong opinion the main character... and yet he was considered as a supporting male to Forest Whitaker... Why does this occur? I don't know... but I am merely anticipating it to happen to Bonham Carter's character.

I personally think that "Charlie Wilson's War" may be TOO much. So many big names, big director, and big concept could overweigh the film... which is why I predicted "My Blueberry Nights".... For one, Oscar seems to be smiling on the smaller, more personal-journey films ("Million Dollar Baby" was not epic in a sense, but it followed three people through a tragedy)... second, I really do think that Oscar is chomping at the bit to award a comedy (the last funny Best Picture was "Shakespeare in Love" in 1998), and, especially after "Little Miss Sunshine" recieved such surprise sleep treatment, "Blueberry" could be just the ticket.

Also, I think Depp and Day-Lewis will fight to the death this year. Day-Lewis will most definitely be nominated, but Depp's nomination depends on the film's success with both audiences and critics.

Redgrave, much like Hudson last year, is already the center focus of the film she is in. I have a feeling she will win her second S. Actress.

[VanHelsing]

flipp, I think you're referring to Romola Garai. I've heard good things about her performance. Anyone from Atonement but Knightley can get nominated.

And OscarGuy, I hope you are wrong about Charlie Wilson's War. I hope it goes The Good Shepherd or All The King's Men way.

[flipp525]

and Vanessa Redgrave all headed for the podium.

I agree with this, Magilla. The role of Briony in Atonement seems almost destined to at least be nominated for an Oscar and Redgrave could definitely pull off another victory in this category. Just an utterly fascinating character. This is one of my all-time favorite books so I'm hoping for great things.

Middle-section Briony (the war years) seems to do the most "atoning" out of all three iterations of the character, however, I'm unfamiliar with the actress who's playing her.



Edited By flipp525 on 1176780234